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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    We certainly aren't better by subtracting Pivetta, my concern is we have what he is. We have #3-#5 rotation spots locked down with guys who can fill in. The team desperately needs front line starting pitching, if he's taking up a spot along with: Bello/Houck/Giolito/Crawford how much room do they have to add to that? It's still reasonable they could add one premium name to that list but I suppose I shouldn't be surprised my dream of adding two has been crushed. Guys like Criswell/Whitlock/Fitts/Winckowski are also in the mix, but they seem more likely to be easily slid into the bullpen, 6th starter/innings eater role.
  2. Hugh2
    My personal choice was the year prior where I thought the Sox should go hard after Seiya Suzuki. The only reason I was ok with bringing back JBJ and letting go of Renfroe was because I thought JBJ would be a 4th outfielder defensive specialist and the Sox would go hard after Suzuki who cost $85 million over 5 years. $5 million less than Yoshida and to date a much better player.
  3. Hugh2
    I think that's why those guys move around a lot too, they're easy to find and replace. I suppose that makes the Yoshida deal even more of a head scratcher.
  4. Hugh2
    At an early date I noted Pivetta as a potential Q.O. and it was not received well. My logic then was teams value on pitching exceeds that of us fans......and it still does.
  5. Hugh2
    That's exactly what it is. I take the contracts given and divide it by a players average WAR the last few years. So I'm actually weighing what they are being paid in real dollars by real MLB teams by FWAR. SO it actually has everything to do with market value. Players, generally speaking are getting around 6-6.5 million dollars per FWar. There are exceptions, but this is largely true. EDIT: it would be very light for Pivetta if he accepts the offer and plays for $20.1 million dollars, or $21 million or whatever it is. He would be the exception, and as we can see there's a circumstance attached to that acceptation (a guy who took a QO)
  6. Hugh2
    Players are getting between 6-6.7 million per war (not taking in this year). Which puts Pivetta at about $12-$13 million per year. He takes it if he likes Boston, he rejects it if a team wants to maximize his pay day and a team gives him a 4th year. I don't think 4/50 is off the table for a team that really likes him. Of course, he has to accept of reject the Q.O. first. If that money is out there for him he may reject it, if it's not then he may just take the $21 million if he thinks he do better next year. This is why it's probably in the Sox best interest to not throw numbers around with him until he either accepts or rejects the offer.
  7. Hugh2
    It's a qualifying offer. It's the same amount of money for Nick or any other player in baseball who accepts the offer. If he accepts its' roughly a 1 year $21 million dollar deal.
  8. Hugh2
    There's a chance he declines. If a team would pay him 50 million or so, he will take that pay day. He could also work out an extension with the Sox. Something around 3/$40 seems fair. I hope this is a sign they're willing to spend, although I suppose they could be offering the QO to kill his market and sign him for less AAV because they're a bunch of cheapos and Burnes/Snell/Fried/Scott were never on their radar and it's a sign they will continue to be cheapos.
  9. Hugh2
    Ok that’s the date thank you, but I think we will know in the next few hours if he’s going to get the offer or not
  10. Hugh2
    They have time to accept but I THINK they have to be offered today. O’Neill has to be offered one and the Sox stay under LT for me to be completely wrong, which could be a long wait…..:and everyone will have forgot by then so I’m just screwed if he’s offered one
  11. Hugh2
    I’ve been wrong before. But whether or not the Sox extend an offer to TON could be a leading indicator of this offseason budget.
  12. Hugh2
    This is how I view it. sox stay below the LT limit. 5-10% chance TON gets a QO Sox go above the LT limit 50-60% chance he gets one
  13. Hugh2
    If the Sox plan on going above the luxury tax my stance on this flips. I think there’s a good chance he actually does get one AND I don’t think it would be horrible if he accepts. if he gets one, I will take it as a sign (or perhaps a hope) that they actually plan on making some investment at this offseason. And not of the structural building kind
  14. Hugh2
    The two players talked about have been Pivetta and O'Neill. I'm not, nor is really anyone else, talking about them actually getting one.
  15. Hugh2
    50/50? no way jose he gets a QO. I'd be insanely surprised if he gets one. I'd bet my first born son on that. I'd pay O'Neill $21 for two years, not 1. Refsnyder already was picked up so there's you righty bat. Anthony mashes Lefty's, and the lineup is gaining Story back and another righty in Campbell next year. Yes, I'd still like more proven RHH, but not at the expensive of not buying pitching for a guy who struggles to play even a 100 games. He ain't getting QO'd
  16. Hugh2
    If the Sox didn't care about blowing past the luxury tax limit next year I wouldn't be shocked with one of these guys getting a Q.O. But they both accept, and if O'Neill accepts, then you're budget is down to APX $40 million with massive holes in your rotation and your bullpen. Q.O. is going to be about $21 million. With a crowded outfield the team should be all in on pitching.
  17. Hugh2
    If you don't plan on going over the luxury tax O'Neill takes up 1/3 of your offseason budget and you're still down a starter and a reliever before you even consider you need pitching. No way in heck O'Neill gets a Q.O.
  18. Hugh2
    I think Theo is going to have his hands involved in more areas where ownership has in the past.
  19. Hugh2
    I believe today is the deadline team/player/mutual options to be exercises and for people to opt out. Free agency really starts tonight, but I suspect the first wave of moves will be resigning's and extensions.
  20. Hugh2
    Here are my offseason additions. Shane Bieber 2 years $21 million. (he effectively gets paid to rehab and becomes the mid year addition) Max Fried 7 years $195 million. Elite starter. Tanner Scott 4 years $60 million. Elite Closer Danny Jansen 2 years $10 million. back up until Teel is ready, possible long term back up if Wong is traded. 2025 Budget apx, $223 million dollars.
  21. Hugh2
    baseball is probably one of the most challenging sports mentally, why wouldn't they have a "mental coach"???
  22. Hugh2
    You know who else was 22 when the reached Portland????? Jarren Duran. Yeah.......that's who. And he only turned out to be Jarren Duran.
  23. Hugh2
    This is a huge stretch. Years matter because it equals job security and more money overall, it all comes down to the money. at $23 million a year. That means, if he turned Bostons offer down ALL he needed to make was $9 for one year. A bench bat makes that, it was a calculated risk he and many other players in his position make, it's still about the money this ISNT'T a zero sum game, taking less money overall but for one year doesn't null the fact that players primary focus is maximizing money.
  24. Hugh2
    His career AWAY OPS is only .033 higher and he actually hits just as many home runs at home than he does on the road. According to Fangraphs Teoscars value went from: 2021 $32.1 2022 $23.3 2023 $15.6 You can't look at hose number and not say one good year substantially rebuilds his value after having a good season in 2024.
  25. Hugh2
    There's plenty of information out there providing the contrary, although it also largely is due to the fact that his market collapsed, Boston offered 14 million per year, LA 23. You can't compare the two, unless boston was offering 2 years 45. But only player of his caliber would have taken the one year deal and assumed he could make more than $9 million per year the next year. La offered more money in retrospect, assuming he didn't get injured this year and could never play again. Assuming he could get more than 1 year $9 million LA offered more money to Teoscar. That's why he signed with LA, not because he didn't want to come to Boston. I'm sure he was much happier to go to LA and win but he would go to Boston in a heartbeat if we offered more money. It often comes down to money.
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