Hugh2

The more I think about it the more I say he is going to reject it. the more I think about how undervalued the pitching market gets the stronger I feel about this.

It will come down to which team can sell their organization, town and culture. It won’t be about the money

Yeah I’m pretty sick of it too, that’s why I say things like “I hope they sign xyz” which this offseason is Burnes/Fried, but he’s on the roster, so I’m going to hope he gets his head right and returns to form. I truly believe his problems are mental and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s really good next year. But banking on him certainly wouldn’t be my first, second, third, or even fourth choice.

Man you guys are tough, I remember how badly people (myself included) were received around here by suggesting Chris Sale might pitch like an ACE again one day. And guess what..... Yeah, not saying he's Chris Sale, it's a crude analogy, I'm just not convinced he's a dud quiet yet.

No one is ignoring, Sale was bad during stretches too when he wasn't hurt, as have a lot of guys at various points in their career. You also can't ignore the fact he was a Cy Young candidate who pitched like an ACE 3 years in a row, and his 2022 was also helped out by having the WORSE defense in the league behind him. Yes you're correct, you can't ignore that, there's just another side to the equation too. It's not a crime to say a 30 year old who was once in ace may be talented and could get there again.

And I was going to take blame and say I forgot but now I get to blame you! Thank you lol. I think Pivetta most likely accepts the Q.O. and a deal is worked out. I think there's a decent chance he rejects and goes to FA. In that scenario my roster stays the same, someone gets bumped or hurt in ST.

Teel starts the year in Worcester and Jansen is resigned, can't figure out how to edit.

C: Connor Wong ($0.80M) 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M) 2B: David Hamilton ($0.80M) 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M) SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M) LF: Kristian Campbell ($0.80M) CF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M) RF: Roman Anthony ($0.80M) DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.60M) 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M) Utility: Vaugh Grissom ($0.80M) Utility: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M) Backup C: Kyle Teal ($0.80M) SP1: Max Fried ($27.00M) SP2: Tanner Houck ($4.50M) SP3: Garret Crochet ($25.00M) SP4: Brayan Bello ($2.66M) SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M) RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M) RP: Kutter Crawford ($3.50M) RP: Garrett Whitlock ($5.50M) RP: A.J. Minter ($8.00M) RP: Michael Fulmer ($1.50M) RP: Tanner Scott ($15.00M) RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M) RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.80M) Payroll is 1.33% under budget

Yeah, it's not like a light switch. The marriage was likely on the rocks before the day it failed. But I can tell you from personal experience the day it happens or the day you're served those papers it's like getting hit by a truck.

Best gosh darn team money can buy because I'm always right and I know everything. Those are the facts...and the facts are undisputed. C: Connor Wong ($0.80M) 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M) 2B: Vaughn Grissom ($0.80M) 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.5M) SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M) LF: Kristian Campbell ($.80M) CF: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M) RF: Roman Anthony ($.80M) DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.00M) 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M) Utility: David Hamilton ($0.80M) Utility: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M) Backup C: Danny Jansen ($6.50M) SP1: Tanner Houck ($4.5M) SP2: Kutter Crawford ($3.5M) SP3: Brayan Bello ($2.5M) SP4: Garrett Whitlock ($5.5M) SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.25M) RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.0M) RP: A.J. Minter ($11M) RP: Tanner Scott ($15M) RP: Garret Crochet ($21M) RP: Max Fried ($27M) RP: Michael Fulmer ($1.5M) RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M) RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.80M) Payroll is 0.97% over budget

I know I know my bad....doing it now

All good points, perhaps a year off from injury just didn't get his arm right but allowed him time to get his head right as well. Guy may be pitching with a chip on his shoulder and if he's healthy given his talent that might be a good thing.

I get that, but you can literally almost draw an exact line from his marriage failing to his poor performance, perhaps it's injury related too. Maybe he was so stressed out and started throwing harder with off mechanics that he hurt his arm and they're both related. I won't discount it. Giolito is only 30 and is a guy who finished top 10 for Cy Young voting 2 times. I'm not counting on him to lead the rotation but I'm hopeful he can add value in 2025.

I firmly believe Gio's problems were mental. You can almost draw an exact line from where he fell off vs. his struggles. However, he wasn't elite before then but he was good enough to be valuable in this rotation. If true, he could be a good #3#4 starter. If the Sox can get him back to where he was then they have a solid #1 #2 starter. The injury adds another monkey wrench into the equation. Today, more than ever guys come back fine from surgery, but surgery is still surgery and you just never know. Even if we witness best case scenario with Giolito, could we count on him down the stretch when his innings are getting high?

Trade Duran for Crochet (3 team deal). Extend Crochet Sign Max Fried. Sign Tanner Scott Sign A.J. Minter Sign Danny Jansen Lineup: C: Wong 1B: Casas 2B: Hamilton SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Campbell CF: Rafaela RF: Anthony DH/Bench: Wilyer Abreu/Rob Refsnyder/Yoshida/Jansen/Grissom Rotation: Max Fried Garret Crochet Tanner Houck Bryan Bello Lucas Giolito Kutter Crawford Bullpen: Tanner Scott Liam Hendriks Garret Whitlock Justin Slaten A.J. Minter Michael Fulmer Brennan Bernardino ADDITIONS: (including rookies and Sox Debuts) Michael Fulmer/A.J. Minter/Liam Hendriks/Tanner Scott/Lucas Giolito/Garret Crochet/Max Fried/Roman Anthony/Kristian Campbell EDIT: OMG I can't believe I forgot about Abreu. I have removed RGON and added Wilyer back in.

It's perfectly plausible that Giolito comes back strong, pitches like a #2 Story is healhty and we have a healthy step forward from many of our young guys and this team is a playoff caliber team. Perfectly plausible. If they actually added a few premium arms I think they can guarantee that and if they spend the money AND get improved performance they could be WS caliber.

We will find out soon enough what Juan Soto is worth.

Soto will also be 2 years younger than Betts was entering free agency (compared to when Betts would have), and you have factor in 5 years of inflation as well. Don't get me wrong, I think if you accounted for all those things Soto is still going to get what amounts to more, but two more years in ones prime is worth a LOT of money.

I'd be surprised if he get $700 million. I do think he will, or at least come close to getting $600 million.

The Red Sox did say they were going to spend money. I guess paying Pivetta and O'Neill is spending money.

I think he wont decline either, but I certainly don’t think it’s a slam dunk. pitching is the most precious commodity. A team in compete now mode that needs a #3 #4 starter and believes in Pivetta might not care about a late round first round pick. also, if signing team is signing other free agents. They might not be giving up a 1st rounder for Pivetta but rather a 2nd or 3rd rounder. not betting on it, but I think there’s a chance he declines

Some good LHP relievers on the market are A.J. Minter and Matthew Boyd. I wouldn't mind one of those guys plus Max Fried.

Kluber and Porcello were close. If you go by FWar (if you believe in that sort of thing) Kluber had a 4.9 FWar to Porcellos 5.1 Porcello had 8 more innings, which might make up the difference, they were almost identical in value. Quintana had a really good season that year as well.

You can also argue Chris Sale should have won the Cy-Young before Porcello that year as well. He had an amazing year that year though, and certainly pitched like an ACE, but that was a career year.

Normally I would disagree, but until they show they're willing to go above the LT you may be right. Otherwise I'd say it's just money for one year.