Hugh2

$25 million a year isn't what it used to be. If Crochet has a 25' and a 26' like he did in 24' how much would be get in FA? a 4-5 WAR pitcher might be worth 30-35 million a year then. And presumably you're paying him in his 20's and not getting a lot of his later 30 years. I can easily see signing him to an extension that is 25 million per, also coming from a guy who told his agent he would refuse to pitch for any team in the playoffs that traded for him unless they gave him an extension just screams "I'm going to get paid"

As in we'd still be paying him $12 million a year to play elsewhere

I do think the Sox can do better than that, but like.......$6 Million. I think that's the most salary relief they get without getting anything of real value in return. I think if we ate the whole contract we'd get a prospect who might slide into the 20-30 range, maybe a hair better. Just my guess.

I was looking at more of his statcast data, but actually some areas where he declined a little bit he actually ticked back up again in 2024. His FB velo was as fast as ever. Ok, I'm back on the Burnes wagon. Burnes or Fried.

This will be fun. Lets put ourselves on record with our BOLD....or not so bold predictions. 1. The ghost of John Henrys past posses his body. Sox sign Tanner Scott/Jack Flaherty/Max Fried/Danny Jansen/A.J. Minter 2. The big 4 will not be traded, and two start the year in Boston 3. Masataka Yoshida will NOT be traded. 4. The Red Sox move up in the draft lottery and end up with the #4 pick in the MLB draft. 5. Nick Pivetta rejects the QO and signs with another team.

Think of it this way, if Yoshida was making the league minimum how much would you be willing to give up for him? you can easily replace what he is. That's his max value if the Sox eat all the money, not worth it in my opinion.

This is why I've been saying over and over again Yoshida is not getting traded. Yoshida isn't bad, he's a good hitter, he's just not an excellent hitter and has no defense home. Sox are stuck with him, if he's healthy, and puts up a 2.0 War next year, the prospect of trading for 2 years of him might be a little more enticing to a team out there. Honestly, he's a bench bat, he makes good contact, doesn't strike out a ton and seems to be able to hit for average when healthy. He's just overpaid, at this point I think he just stays here. Hopefully he offers good value off the bench and if he can stay healthy he's not a bad platoon DH. Yeah I know, not exactly the sexiest phrase "platoon DH"

A c level lower prospect

add. Tell that to nasty Nate

So he goes about 8 years inbetween TJ? ok sign him to 6 years. If there's damage to that tendon the MRI should show it. He finished the regular season just fine and on a high note. I'd roll the dice with him 1,000X before Burnes whos underlying metrics have gone down consistently the last several years or Crochet who who has never pitched more than 146 and has yet to prove he has the arm to start year in and year out. Max Fried is probably the Sox best bet at getting a true ace.....unless of course you believe Blake Snell is due for another Cy-Young year.

I don't think this is a zero sum game, I can believe Henry messed up and didn't want to dish out the money AND Covid changed the world and might have influenced Betts to just take the money and not risk going to FA.

Even if he went to free agency in a non covid world, he certainly still could of ended up signing in LA. Guys like to maximize their value and having teams bid on you can certainly do that. being uncertain about the world and the future can certainly change ones perception.

No but one can have conjecture. We had an unprecedented world event happened that led to a level of unpredictability we havent seen world wide in almost a century. It's not insane to think someone might of said to themselves "s*** maybe I'll take that 365 million now" Again we'll never know, but I'm comfortable saying it's a good chance.

You make it sound like he's missed a chronic amount of time, he pitched 174.1 innings this year and was skipped two times in July. Probably just being cautious after coming back from TJ, which is almost assumed every pitcher will have now a days. If anything, I'm encouraged he had it and came back strong. He's pitched at least 165 2/3 innings every year since 2019 save his TJ year. Guys get injured, I don't think that makes them injury prone. Guys who get injured over and over again are injury Prone.....that's not Fried.

I'd believe it didn't have much of an impact on the money he would have got (give or take) but I think it impacted his decision to sign and not go to FA.

Does he really have injury concerns? He got injured before but it's not like he chronically gets injured and has missed mulitple seasons. Pitchers get injured, I don't think the risk of injury to Fried is any larger than most FA pitchers. If anything, I'd say the guy who never got injured is due.

Was it below market? At the time it was the 2nd largest amount of money ever given. It was signed during Covid, when there was a ton of uncertainty in the world and in sports. That might have motivated him to sign that contract. I will always wonder, if in a non covid reality, if Betts would have gone to FA. I think he would have but we will never really know.

Sorry about the Crochet rant, this thread should be about Soto.

In my offseason roster page I picked Crochet to be on the 26 man and traded for, but the more I think about it the more I do not like him. He's never pitched more than 146 innings his entire life, now that may not mean anything, but he could be in for an injury, we have no ideal if he's the type of guy who can do 150-175 or more year in and year out. That's risky. He also said at the trade deadline he would refuse to pitch in the playoffs if traded for and not extended. That was a red flag that threw a lot of teams off. That kinds sounds a little crappy and entitled, I wouldn't mind him in Boston, but I don't think you can let a guy like that be your ace. That's why I'm back on the FA wagon.

Early I was big on Burnes, but the more I think about it and read about the free agent pitchers, the more I think Max Fried really should be the guy.

I certainly would be excited if the Sox sign Soto, and they have the room for it in their budget. My issue is, if they plan on continuing to stay under the luxury tax, they won't have room for much else and that means trading top prospects. I think you pay for a guy like Soto going $45 million plus a year because you're paying a guy the league minimum elsewhere on the roster. That's how elite teams like LA do it, even though they spend big, they have good homegrown players built around their FA superstars. I don't want the big 4 touched. I think you trade Duran with Soto on the roster and get a TOTRS, between him/Crawford/and prospects 6-10 I think you can get a lot. If the Sox were willing to return to the "hey will go above the Luxury tax for a year or two" they could still sign Soto and go out and get guys like Fried/Turner and still be in a position to reset the luxury tax in two years. If you want to do that and keep Duran, I think you can make Rafaela your super utility guy and roll with an outfield of LF SOTO CF Duran RF Anthony If that's your team, adding a pitcher and having multiple legit superstars around a growing young core, this team will be light years better next year BUT.......John Henry.

Yeah Boston has appeal, so do other towns. Do we really wanna bank on that and lose out while the top end of the FA market signs elsewhere. sox should do both. Sign an Ace and court Roki

Yeah I like it too, Pivetta is a BOTRS, Sox have plenty of that. Fried is a guy who can slide into the top of your rotation. thats exactly what the Sox need and exactly what they should do

Sasakis 24 season was a little less stellar than the last. I still think he’s going to be a stud but he ain’t a sure thing to be an ace. also. The max the Sox could give him right now is 1.03 million and there’s a ton of teams that have more money to sign him including the dodgers who can offer more than double. if he waits a few months he will have every team in baseball bidding on him, and seeing how the bidding can’t get too high it’s going to come down to appeal. It won’t be about the money as much as it will be about him going to the team he likes best. Someone like Max Fried, is a proven ace, and seeing how the Sox realistically need two good starters I think he should be priority. You can with much greater certainty get Fried over Roki if you’re willing to spend the money.

Yeah but if you get a pick back whatever, just sign a guy like Fried and upgrade the rotation. sure they have an advantage, but Pivetta doesn’t make the team any better