harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Thank you for the clarification. Because of the present-value calculation, the deferred money reportedly reduces Chris Sale's AAV about 15 percent (from $29 million to $25.6 million). A 15 percent reduction would drop Kike Hernandez's AAV from $7 million to about $6 million.
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Rick Porcello. Seriously.
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The Yankees reportedly are the frontrunners for Jameson Taillon:
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Nathan Eovaldi isn't far behind with a $17 million annual salary.
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From the San Diego Union-Tribune's Kevin Acee: "Another source said Profar’s choices had been narrowed to the Padres and Red Sox before he made the decision to return to San Diego." https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2021-01-22/padres-jurickson-profar-free-agent
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jacksonianmarch nails it.
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One or two years of Christian Vazquez probably does not fit within Pittsburgh's dreamed-for competitive window. The Pirates would likely target the top prospects in a pedestrian Red Sox farm system. Too steep a price. Or not.
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The deferred money should not impact the luxury tax calculation. It's the guaranteed money divided by the guaranteed years (adjusted later if options are exercised).
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MLB Trade Rumors churns out trade rumors about Pittsburgh righthander Jameson Taillon, an occasional target of forum posters: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/could-jameson-taillon-be-the-next-pirates-player-on-the-block.html#respond A trade of outfielder Gilberto Jimenez and righthanders Bryan Mata and Ryan Zeferjahn for Taillon, second baseman Adam Frazier and reliever Richard Rodriguez would be perfectly balanced, according to Baseball Trade Values. Those Red Sox prospects are precisely the types the Pirates would target ... and precisely the prospects the Red Sox can ill-afford to lose as the Sox restock the farm system. On the plus side, Taillon, Frazer and Rodriguez are projected to earn only a combined $7 million this year.
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Salaries rarely drop in arbitration. Andrew Benintendi will be working off his 2021 salary of $6.6 million when he enters his final year of team control in 2022. A modest salary increase to $7.4 million -- a low-end hike of about 12 percent -- would bring Benintendi up to Kiki Hernandez's two-year total of $14 million. Despite a disappointing 2020 season, outfielder Kyle Schwarber was projected to earn between $7.01 million and $9.3 million in his final arbitration season working off his 2020 salary of $7.01 million. Of course Schwarber was non-tendered and signed for one year at $10 million.
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Steamer and ZiPS project Andrew Benintendi with 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 134 games and 1.5 in 135 games while projecting Kiki Hernandez with 2021 WAR of 0.8 in 89 games and 1.2 in 89 games. Hernandez is guaranteed $14 million over two years while Benintendi, with a 2021 salary of $6.6 million, is likely to equal or top that over two years unless he is non-tendered.
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Too late ... the Red Sox to sign Garrett Richards: One year, $10 million with a team option for 2022:
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Enrique Hernandez, who posted 3.2 fWAR and 3.3 bWAR in 2018, stroked a two-run homer off Red Sox reliever Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2018 World Series: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN201810270.shtml
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Comp time! 32-year-old Garrett Richards is a 6-foot-2, 210-pound righthander taken out of college in the first round of the 2009 draft while 30-year-old Jake Odorizzi is a 6-foot-2, 190-pound righthander taken out of high school in the first round of the 2008 draft. Their career stats: GR DOB 5-27-88 187 G, 128 GS, 804.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 8.6 bWAR, 12.1 fWAR JO DOB 3-27-90 195 G, 192 GA, 1042.1 IP, 3.92 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 105 ERA+, 12.5 bWAR, 13.5 fWAR Their 2020 stats: GR 14 G, 10 GS, 51.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 1.0 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR JO 4 G, 4 GS, 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 68 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR Steamer and ZiPS project Richards with 2021 WAR of 1.6 in 139 innings and 1.1 in 70.1 innings while projecting Odorizzi with 2021 WAR of 1.7 in 149 innings and 1.8 in 119.2 innings. MLB Trade Rumors predicts a two-year, $16 million contract for Richards and a three-year, $39 million contract for Odorizzi.
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Then perhaps it's time for the Red Sox to turn to the dependable Rick Porcello. What durable free agent starter will fit into the Red Sox budget?
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Who can resist a fun comp? 32-year-old Garrett Richards is a 6-foot-2, 210-pound righthander taken out of college in the first round of the 2009 draft while 30-year-old Nathan Eovaldi is a 6-foot-2, 217-pound righthander taken out of high school in the 11th round of the 2008 draft. Their career stats: GR DOB 5-27-88 187 G, 128 GS, 804.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 8.6 bWAR, 12.1 fWAR NE DOB 1-13-90 188 G, 169 GA, 966.0 IP, 4.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 10.7 bWAR, 12.9 fWAR Their 2020 stats: GR 14 G, 10 GS, 51.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 1.0 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR NE 9 G, 9 GS, 48.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 1.3 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR Steamer and ZiPS project Richards with 2021 WAR of 1.6 in 139 innings and 1.1 in 70.1 innings while projecting Eovaldi with 2021 WAR of 2.4 in 149 innings and 1.2 in 90 innings. MLB Trade Rumors predicts a two-year, $16 million contract for Richards while Eovaldi is owed $34 million over the next two seasons.
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FWIW Garrett Richards tossed more innings than Nathan Eovaldi in 2020. Martin Perez was the only Red Sox pitcher who tossed more innings than Richards last year. An update: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/01/boston-red-sox-garrett-richards-have-momentum-toward-deal-talks-with-free-agent-starter-evolving-though-other-teams-remain-involved.html
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From Thursday's chat with FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-1-12-21/
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The Red Sox reportedly are in "active discussions" with veteran righthander Garrett Richards:
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Was Enrique Hernandez the Red Sox second choice after Jurickson Profar (who offers similar versatility)? The 2021 Marcel projections for Hernandez and Profar (who is 18 months younger than Hernandez): EH 446 PA, .239/.311/.423/.734 JP 525 PA, .242/.323/.425/.749 Steamer and ZiPS project Hernandez with 2021 WAR of 1.0 in 79 games and 0.6 in 141 games while projecting Profar with 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 136 games and 1.6 in 136 games.
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Working off the current roster, the projected Red Sox lineup at Roster Resource: CF Alex Verdugo SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Rafael Devers DH J.D. Martinez C Christian Vazquez LF Andrew Benintendi RF Hunter Renfroe 1B Bobby Dalbec 2B Michael Chavis SP Nathan Eovaldi SP Eduardo Rodriguez SP Tanner Houck SP Martin Perez SP Nick Pivetta CL Matt Barnes https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox Changes are likely before Opening Day but the Red Sox should be able to field a team. Or not.
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2022 will be Chris Sale's age 33 season. FWIW
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Triston Casas made the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospect list at No. 85: https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/1/21/22242139/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-triston-casas-top-101-mlb-jeter-downs-bobby-dalbec https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/64061/2021-prospects-the-top-101/
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Do the Red Sox consider stepping back in 2021 after the AL East continues to get more competitive with the Toronto Blue Jays reportedly signing George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood?
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Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 1.7 and 1.5 for Andrew Benintendi and 1.4 and 1.8 for Eddie Rosario: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andrew-benintendi/17901/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eddie-rosario/12155/stats?position=OF FWIW Benintendi is nearly three years younger than Rosario.