harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Perhaps it's time to find a more exciting team to follow. Or not.
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Indeed Steamer projects Rick Porcello with a 2021 WAR of 1.9 in 31 starts, ZiPS a 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 24 starts and Marcel a 2021 ERA of 5.05 in 107 innings.
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Baseball Trade Values accepts a trade of Christian Vazquez for outfielder/thirdbaseman Josh Lowe (a former No. 13 pick) and one-time Red Sox lefthander Jalen Beeks, who is expected to miss the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Keep expectations Lowe in a Vazquez trade. A Tampa Bay Times columnist discusses Kevin Kiermaier as a trade candidate: https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2020/12/08/like-it-or-not-the-time-might-be-right-for-rays-to-trade-kevin-kiermaier/
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This year righthander Rick Porcello posted 1.7 fWAR in 12 starts, which prorates to 4.5 fWAR in 32 starts: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rick-porcello/2717/stats?position=P
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Over the Monster had Garrett Whitlock at the top of its Rule 5 list (in no particular order): https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/12/10/22167249/boston-red-sox-rule-5-draft-preview-mlb-chaim-bloom-garrett-whitlock-paul-campbell-matt-krook
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Fine work. notin should tutor Swiharts Ghost.
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A Kansas City fan might find Bobby Dalbec, Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran overvalued. Or not.
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If the Red Sox can live with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s career OPS+ of 94, including 95 over the past three seasons. Jurickson Profar has a UZR/150 of 14.8 with 8 runs saved in 560.2 career innings in the outfield, including a UZR/150 of 14.7 with 4 runs saved in 304.1 innings this year. Bradley has a UZR/150 of 6.8 with 53 runs saved in 7,409 career innings in the outfield, including a UZR/150 of 5.5 with 5 runs saved in 471 innings this year. Profar, who is three years younger than Bradley, remains an unlikely target for the Red Sox ... and Bradley remains a likely target.
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The defensive metrics are unkind to Jurickson Profar at second base but, in a small sample, quite positive in left field. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jurickson-profar/10815/stats#advanced-fielding
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A year earlier the 2003 Seattle Mariners had a five-man rotation that started all 162 games: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml That year the Mariners won 93 games but missed the postseason for the second straight year (a streak that now is up to 19 seasons).
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The list does not include free agent and former No. 1 prospect Jurickson Profar, who paired up with Xander Bogaerts on the Netherlands national team: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2017/03/11/baseball/talented-youthful-dutch-squad-no-longer-secret/ Profar is the 34th-ranked free agent at MLB Trade Rumors and the 35th-ranked prospect at FanGraphs: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/ MLB Trade Rumors projects Profar with a one-year, $7 million contract while FanGraphs columnist Craig Edwards projects a two-year, $9 million contract. The FanGraphs crowdsource pegs Profar with a two-year, $15 million contract. A promising team may target Profar: https://theathletic.com/2240359/2020/12/08/mariners-offseason-questions-who-will-play-left-field-in-2021/
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If Nathan Eovaldi was worth four years and $68 million then fellow 6-foot-2 righthander Kevin Gausman makes sense at $18.9 million for one year. Eovaldi was one year younger than Gausman's current age when Eovaldi signed the $68 million deal. At the time Eovaldi had posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $94.1 million, in 850 innings. Gausman has posted 15.0 fWAR, valued at $119.2 million in 985 career innings. Eovaldi was coming off a season with an ERA of 3.81 and ERA+ of 111 in 112 innings, including an ERA of 3.33 and ERA+ of 133 in 54 innings with the Red Sox. In the 2018 postseason Eovaldi also posted an ERA of 1.61 in 22 innings. This year Gausman posted an ERA of 3.62 and an ERA+ of 118 in 59.2 innings.
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Perhaps within my lifetime ... or not. In 2021 the Mariners threaten to finish with a better record than the Red Sox for the first time since ... well, since this year.
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Steamer projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.33 in 18 starts covering 103 innings. ZiPS projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.26 in 24 starts covering 152 innings. Marcel projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.96 in an unspecified number of starts covering 75 innings.
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In the past century psychology has evolved from a largely qualitative field to a predominantly quantitative hard science ... perhaps overly so. We need to distinguish seeking quantitative answers from not seeking answers at all.
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With the non-tender of Adam Duvall, Ender Inciarte might be a starting outfielder for Atlanta: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves Could the non-tendered Delino DeShields provide similar defense-first production as Inciarte in center field? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/delino-deshields/11379/stats?position=OF
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The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/players-avoiding-arbitration-12220.html
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On a tangent, recommended is the 2020 book War Fever: Boston, Baseball, and America in the Shadow of the Great War, which follows three German-Americans -- Babe Ruth, the conductor of the Boston Symphony Orchestra and a Harvard-educated lawyer -- through World War I and the Spanish flu epidemic: https://www.publishersweekly.com/978-1-5416-7266-6
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What aboout coupling the one year and $15 million remaining on Oriole righthander Alex Cobb's contract with two years of Trey Mancini, who is projected to earn $4.8 million in 2021 as the leftfielder returns from cancer treatment? Neither Cobb nor Mancini is likely to fall within Baltimore's competitive window. In 2019 Mancini posted a .291/.364/.535/.899 line with 106 runs, 35 home runs and 97 RBI. The cost in trade might not be high as Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus trade values of a negative $11.6 million for Cobb and a positive $14.4 million for Mancini.
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The point is that fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes for Rafael Devers.
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My wife went to high school with that guy, Kevin Mitchell. Not a sports fan, she has no memory of Mitchell but remembers the classmate upon whom the Jeff Spicoli character was based in the film Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Cameron Crowe wrote the book and screenplay after going undercover at the high school. Trivia: Through their age 23 seasons, Rafael Devers has posted a negative 35 Defensive Runs Saved in 3,352.1 innings at third base while Pablo Sandoval had posted a negative 9 DRS in 2,337.2 innings at third base.
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The Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are likely suitors for Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon.
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The Red Sox make a waiver claim and outright Ryan Weber and Matt Hall to Triple A:
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https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-minor-leaguers/