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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Josh Reddick's 2020 defensive metrics were not good: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/josh-reddick/3892/stats?position=OF#advanced-fielding
  2. harmony
    Former Red Sox rightfielder Josh Reddick, a 2012 Gold Glove winner, is available.
  3. harmony
    Between 2015 and 2019, former Stetson University righthanders won four Cy Young Awards: Corey Kluber (2015, 2016) and Jacob deGrom (2018, 2019). The next tall righthander out of Stetson to contend for the Cy Young Award: Seattle hopeful Logan Gilbert, the 35th-ranked prospect at MLB Pipeline: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gilber000log Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball Or not.
  4. harmony
    That article references a John Tomase column that predicts the Red Sox will, among other things, sign Jake Odorizzi and Corey Kluber: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/21-fearless-predictions-2021-boston-red-sox?b Would that be enough for the Red Sox rotation?
  5. harmony
    Still some familiar names on the Golden Spikes list: https://www.usabaseball.com/golden-spikes-award/history/winners
  6. harmony
    My pessimistic expectation for Bobby Dalbec resembles my pessimistic expectation a year ago for 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. Here are their stats from their brief MLB debut seasons: 2019 KL 18 G, 75 PA, 10 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .268/.293/.592/.885, OPS+ 131 2020 BD 23 G, 92 PA, 13 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, .263/.359/.600/.959, OPS+ 152 Their 2021 ZiPS projections: KL 122 G, 472 PA, 51 R, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .227/.282/.377/.659, -0.2 WAR BD 121 G, 447 PA, 57 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, .217/.302/.409/.711, 0.8 WAR Their 2021 Steamer projections: KL 149 G, 650 PA, 71 R, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .231/.309/.393/.702, 1.5 WAR BD 133 G, 531 PA, 68 R, 27 HR, 74 RBI, .234/.318/.456/.774, 0.6 WAR ... and their 2021 Marcel projections: KL 534 PA, 76 R, 24 HR, 68 RBI, .257/.343/.452/.795 BD 324 PA, 43 R, 16 HR, 45 RBI, .249/.336/.470/.807 FWIW Dalbec is two weeks older than the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year.
  7. harmony
    The Cot's spreadsheet starts in 1991. The Red Sox signed Matt Young on December 4, 1990, Jack Clark on December 15, 1990, and Danny Darwin on December 19, 1990.
  8. harmony
    The 2020 book A Fan's Guide to Baseball Analytics: Why WAR, WHIP, wOBA, and Other Advanced Sabermetrics Are Essential to Understanding Modern Baseball by MLB.com writer Anthony Castrovince takes a light approach in explaining the modern stats: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/A-Fans-Guide-to-Baseball-Analytics/Anthony-Castrovince/9781683583448 ... without the condescension in Keith Law's 2017 book Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball.: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/smart-baseball-keith-law?variant=32206562459682
  9. harmony
    MLB Trade Rumors updates on the Red Sox offseason (including Ha-Seong Kim, Kiké Hernández and Jackie Bradley Jr.): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/red-sox-notes-kim-hernandez-arroyo-bradley-jr.html
  10. harmony
    Rick Porcello, who is only 14 months older than Nathan Eovaldi, has a career ERA+ of 98 in 2,096 career innings while Eovaldi had a career ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings. Steamer and ZiPS project Porcello with 1.9 WAR in 177 innings and 1.5 WAR in 139 innings while projecting Eovaldi with 2.8 WAR in 171 innings and 0.9 WAR in 74 innings.
  11. harmony
    Eduardo Rodriguez and Luis Severino provide interesting comps: ER DOB 4/7/93, 5 MLB seasons, 127 G, 122 GS, 699.0 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.86 K/BB, 113 ERA+, 13.6 bWAR, 10.7 fWAR LS DOB 2/20/94. 5 MLB seasons, 99 G, 88 GS, 530.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.93 K/BB, 125 ERA+, 11.7 bWAR, 12.8 fWAR Rodriguez finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2019 while Severino finished third in 2017 and ninth in 2018. Rodriguez has one year of team control and Severino two years of team control. Nathan Eovaldi's "longer period of success" includes an ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings over nine seasons.
  12. harmony
    Cot's Baseball Contracts now offers a feature that lists free agent contracts over the past 30 years for each team, including the Red Sox: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L4T9k8pGDDt8kVd1rvboacYdXpafHsOB2nhEGAGEaAY/edit#gid=1428273551
  13. harmony
    Awaiting the returns of Mitch Haniger and Tom Murphy, the Mariners have already made modest additions to a team that finished three games ahead of the Red Sox with MLB’s youngest roster. Seattle has the payroll flexibility and prospect assets to further improve the club. Or not.
  14. harmony
    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team Click on the top of WAR column. Seattle fans are discouraged with the stunningly low projections for the young Mariners.
  15. harmony
    FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections* show a wide gap between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-projections-boston-red-sox/ * the projections were for rosters current as of November 13 for the Yankees and December 17 for the Red Sox
  16. harmony
    An MLB.com reporter offers her early 2021 power rankings: MLB Power Rankings to begin 2021 WWW.MLB.COM The first Power Rankings of the new year is always the most challenging. Predicting what teams will look like in April -- or even in February, when pitchers and catchers normally report -- can turn into a combination of playing whack-a-mole blindfolded. Even in normal times, momentum can swing with
  17. harmony
    Rick Porcello will likely sign with team whose disgruntled casual fans will cite the unsightly 1-7 record and 5.64 ERA of 2020. And the team will move forward. MLB front offices have more -- and better -- information than the casual fan. Much of that information is not made public but each free agent signing probably follows a scouting report that at least rivals this 26-page dossier on righthander Chris Flexen, whom the Seattle Mariners signed last month out of the Korean Baseball Organization: http://benhowell71.com/chris-flexen/ It's fun to second-guess the folks who have better information and more expertise than we do ... but let's keep it all in perspective.
  18. harmony
    Porcello, Porcello and ... Porcello.
  19. harmony
    Citing the win/loss record and ERA is certainly old school. FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors ranked Rick Porcello No. 43 and No. 46 among free agents this offseason: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/ https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html ... ahead of Jake Arrieta, Anthony DeSclafani, Mike Fiers, Jon Lester, Homer Bailey, Brett Anderson, Aníbal Sánchez and Cole Hamels. The San Francisco Giants signed DeSclafani to a one-year contract for $6 million plus incentives.
  20. harmony
    On the topic of post-prime, check out these dates of birth: 12/27/88 - Rick Porcello 3/30/89 -- Chris Sale 2/13/90 -- Nathan Eovaldi 8/28/89 -- Matt Andriese 4/4/91 -- Martin Perez
  21. harmony
    We now have the luxury of combining a 162-game season and a 60-game season for a 222-game sample. Over the past two seasons Rick Porcello has posted 3.5 fWAR in 44 starts, which prorates in 32 starts to 2.5 fWAR, which this year was valued at about $20 million. Which is not to say Porcello will land a $20 million AAV this offseason.
  22. harmony
    In the same division as the Orioles, the Red Sox are probably no worse than a fourth-place team.
  23. harmony
    MLB Trade Rumors columnist Steve Adams wrote that piece and added a reply in the comments: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/rays-trade-rumors-kevin-kiermaier.html#comments
  24. harmony
    Happy New Year! Wishing you the happiness that engulfs me every day of the year.
  25. harmony
    Chaim Bloom was hired to field the best possible Red Sox team. Bloom was not hired to spend, spend, spend.
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