harmony

Red Sox fans might prefer this comp of the debut seasons of Bobby Dalbec and Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis, who the following year was named AL Rookie of the Year: 2019 Lewis 18 G, 75 PA, 10 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .268/.293/.592/.888, OPS+ 131, 4.0 BB%, 38.7 K%, 0.5 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR 2020 Dalbec 23 G, 92 PA, 13 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, .263/.359/.600/.959, OPS+ 152, 10.9 BB%, 42.4 K%, 0.6 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR Lewis and Dalbec are 6-foot-4, righthanded power hitters taken out of college in the 2016 draft. Baseball Trade Values assigns a median surplus value of $31.3 million to five years of Lewis and $18.2 million to six years of Dalbec, a Seattle native who was born two weeks before Lewis. This poster's reserved 2021 projection for Dalbec mirrors his reserved projection for Lewis going into the 2020 season. The Lewis projection proved wrong and it's hard not to pull for Lewis after watching this 32-minute video about his comeback from injuries:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values gives Michael Chavis a generous median surplus value of $7.5million (perhaps incorrectly listing Chavis with four years of team control when Chavis has just one year and 164 days of MLB service, making him a likely Super Two next offseason if he plays the entire 2021 season at the MLB level). https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7875/ As a point of reference, Baseball Trade Values assigns a median surplus value of $4.0 million to Seattle infielder Shed Long, who was born the same month as Chavis and who has five years of team control. Both players bombed this year after each posted 0.7 fWAR in impressive 2019 debuts, Chavis in 95 games and Long in 42 games. This year Chavis posted a negative 0.7 fWAR in 42 games and Long 0.0 fWAR in 34 games. Steamer and ZiPS project Chavis with 2021 WAR of 0.3 in 120 games and 0.9 in 112 games while projecting Long with 0.5 in 57 games and 0.3 in 107 games. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/the-player-plan-which-shed-long-jr-will-the-mariners-see-in-2021/#comments

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/11/19/21574970/boston-red-sox-offseason-news-michael-gettys-contract-enmanuel-de-jesus FanGraphs wrote in April: "Gettys’ tools are such that he might be Drew Stubbs, with plus power, a 70 arm and speed, but a hit tool that might not be playable in any capacity." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-53-prospects-san-diego-padres/

In his roundup of non-tender candidates, FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen predicts that the Red Sox will cut loose Matt Barnes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/presenting-a-mock-non-tenderizing/ The column, posted Friday, listed Baltimore first baseman Renato Nunez as an unlikely non-tender. Later Friday the Orioles designated Nunez for assignment.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, no team in the AL East has an open slot on a 40-man roster: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/40-man-roster-roundup.html NL East teams combine for 15 open roster slots and the AL West 11 open roster slots.

Red Sox make decisions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/red-sox-dfa-ryan-weber-matt-hall-kyle-hart.html

The Red Sox have more than six unprotected names but only six players are ranked among the club's Top 30 prospects at MLB Pipeline.

MLB.com lists the Rule 5 eligible players from each club's Top 30 prospect list (as determined by MLB.com): Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects 2020 WWW.MLB.COM All 30 Major League organizations had some serious decisions to make by Friday. They had until 6 p.m. ET to decide what they would do with their 40-man rosters. Some prospects have earned a coveted spot, some have not and will thus be eligible to be taken by the other Some teams' non-Top 30 prospects have already been protected.

That was truer two decades ago than it is in today's analytical front offices.

Baseball Trade Values identifies the proper variables: years of team control, salary, age, well-established production projections. By doing so the website draws us closer to the elusive truth. Or not. One could dispute the value BTV assigns to a particular variable. Too often a fan will consider only one or two of those variables (or none, relying soley on name recognition). The result can be unrealistic trade proposals.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html As we know, not all candidates prevail.

MLB.com and Roster Resource list Matt Barnes as the Red Sox closer: Depth Chart | Boston Red Sox WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox Matt Barnes and his projected $4.1 million salary is not worth Braden Bishop or any other minimal asset. There is a reason Barnes is a non-tender candidate. Barnes at $2 million might be a different story.

The offseason plan at Lookout Landing, the Seattle counterpart to Boston's Over the Monster, calls for the trade of Matt Barnes for 27-year-old centerfielder Braden Bishop: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/18/21572811/lookout-landings-2020-mariners-offseason-plan-going-medium-taijuan-archer-kelenic-extension-inciarte A favorite line: "the cash-strapped Sox may not want to pay that for the final year of a closer they don’t trust as much." Bishop has posted a .291/.365/.396/.761 line in five minor league seasons but has struggled in 39 MLB games with a humble .128/.185/.151/.336 line. In March FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen wrote: "Bishop remains strangely snakebitten by injury, the latest and most bizarre of which was a 2019 lacerated spleen. He’s still a glove-first, bench outfield prospect." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-seattle-mariners/ MLB Trade Rumors projects a 2021 salary of $4.1 million in the final year of team control over Matt Barnes, whom MLBTR also lists as a non-tender candidate.

Robinson Cano outperformed his contract in Seattle before the Mariners cashed in in a big way with the December 2018 trade to the Mets. Cano's $240 million contract should end up being for $204 million (assuming no more suspensions). How does this year's suspension impact the $3.75 million the Mariners owe Cano each December 1 through 2022?

It's two years of nearly 28-year-old Joe Musgrove versus five years of 24-year-old Justus Sheffield. Baseball Trade Values assigns Sheffield a surplus value of only $22.7 million by mistakenly* listing the lefthander with only four years of team control. Sheffield has only one year and 53 days of MLB service. Some Seattle fans would not want to give up Dylan Moore for Joe Musgrove (especially with Gregory Polanco attached): http://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3667&start=190 We can agree that Mariners would likely need to give up something more than the equivalent of Jarren Duran, Michael Chavis and C.J. Chatham (the offer that drew me into this conversation). * Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto speculated that Sheffield, despite leading all AL rookie pitchers in fWAR, failed to be among the 10 players receiving votes for Rookie of the Year because sportswriters forgot the lefthander was a still a rookie after making his MLB debut in 2018.

That's funny. Nearly 28-year-old Joe Musgrove, who posted an ERA of 3.86 in eight starts this year, would be a likely downgrade from 24-year-old Justus Sheffield, who posted a ERA of 3.58 in 10 starts. And 23-year-old Logan Gilbert has a higher ceiling than Sheffield.

Even with his fall from a Top 20 prospect Seattle outfield prospect Taylor Trammell would be the second-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system, not far behind Jeter Downs. MLB Pipeline's most recent rankings have Downs at No, 40 and Trammell at No. 51. The Trammell package also included lefthander Brandon Williamson, who sparkled in a short stint at short-season Class A after being taken in the second round of the 2019 draft. Williamson is ranked 10th in a Seattle farm system that remains stacked despite this year's graduation of Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner Evan White and pitchers Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn (who posted an aggregate ERA of 3.92 in a combined 20 starts). Do the Pirates have the equivalent of 24-year-old lefthander Nick Margevicius, who posted an ERA of 3.36 with a K/BB of 6.87 in three minor league seasons? In five fewer starts, Margevicius this year posted as many quality starts as Martin Perez.

Agreed that the Seattle Mariners might be selling high on Dylan Moore, who this year posted 1.7 bWAR in only 38 games. As points of reference Alex Verdugo and Jackie Bradley Jr. led the 2020 Red Sox by posting 1.9 bWAR in 53 games and 1.8 bWAR in 55 games, respectively. Baseball Trade Values gives four years of Verdugo a surplus value of $57.8 million and four years of Moore a surplus value of $21.2 million. Perhaps those are bullish valuations ... or not. The utility tag of Moore should not reduce his value. Moore could replace Gregory Polanco in the outfield (where Moore made 24 appearances this year) or could go to second base if Adam Frazier becomes too expensive for the Pirates in this final two years of team control. The Seattle offer of Moore and lefthander Nick Margevicius was posted in response to the offer of Jarren Duran, Michael Chavis and C.J. Chatham for the same three Pirates. Five years of Margevicius is no great prize but this year the southpaw posted as many quality starts as Martin Perez (and was one shy of Nathan Eovaldi's total).

???

Nah.

The website accepted my Seattle offer of utility player Dylan Moore and lefthander Nick Margevicius for Joe Musgrove, Gregory Polanco and Richard Rodriguez: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29719/ ... as well as my Seattle offer of outfield prospect Taylor Trammell and prospect lefthander Brandon Williamson for the same three Pirates: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29844/

Would it be wise for the Red Sox to take on the underwater contract of Pittsburgh outfielder Gregory Polanco to land a starter such as Joe Musgrove or Jameson Taillon?

MLB Trade Rumors has released its list of non-tender candidates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html The list may be conservative ... or not.

Teams such as the Seattle Mariners, who have a projected 40-man CBT payroll of only $81.3 million* for 2021 after an Opening Day payroll of $162 million as recently as 2018. The Red Sox have a projected 40-man CBT payroll of $172.2 millon** in 2021, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. * including player benefits: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit#gid=1520401900 ** including player benefits: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900

FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen writes "On the Coming Deluge of Non-Tenders": https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-the-coming-deluge-of-non-tenders/ Later this week Longenhagen will examine the individual players who are candidates to be non-tendered.