harmony

Would a Tampa Bay signing of catcher Kevan Smith to minor league contract lessen the Rays' rumored interest in Christian Vazquez? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/rays-nearing-deal-with-kevan-smith.html

Can't help making the comparison to righthander Chris Flexen, another California swing man signed by the Seattle Mariners earlier this month. Matt Andriese is guaranteed $2.1 million for one year with options up to $7.35 million while Flexen is guaranteed $4.35 million over two years with options up to $13.75 million. The 31-year-old Andriese is five years older than Flexen. Andriese and Flexen likely have similar roles ... and similarly complicated guaranteed MLB contracts.

The 1998 Seattle Mariners went 76-85 with Hall of Famers Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Randy Johnson (the latter was traded on July 31 of that year). https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/1998.shtml Another member of that 1998 Seattle club -- Alex Rodriguez, who ranks 16th all time in career bWAR -- may be headed to the Hall of Fame. Or not.

An update on Noah Song: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/country-comes-first-and-baseball-second-red-sox-prospect-noah-song

https://bosoxinjection.com/2020/12/18/red-sox-prospect-jarren-durans-winter-league-unusual-start/

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski discusses the 2021 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-projections-boston-red-sox/

The Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners are similarly situated in the sense that neither team is likely to go all-in to compete in 2021. Each team entered the offseason looking to fill an outfield hole with the Red Sox returning lefthand-hitting Alex Verdugo and Andrew Benintendi and the Mariners returning righthhand-hitting Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger. The Red Sox at least partially filled their hole with righthand-hitting Hunter Renfroe. Perhaps the Mariners will pursue Renfroe's mirror image in lefthand-hitting Kyle Schwarber, another non-tender/DFA discard who is a year younger than Renfroe. Renfroe is a 6-1, 230-pound power hitter taken out of Mississippi State with the 13th pick of the 2013 draft while Schwarber is a 6-0, 225-pound power hitter taken out of Indiana with the fourth pick of the 2014 draft. Here are their 2021 Marcel projections: HR 389 PA, .221/.296/.465/.761, 55 R, 25 HR, 61 RBI KS 563 PA, .233/.337/.471/.808, 74 R, 30 HR, 74 RBI Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 0.8 in 117 games and 1.7 in 124 games for Renfroe and 2.0 in 128 games and 2.0 in 137 games for Schwarber. Each has a pronounced platoon split. Of course the chances of Seattle signing Schwarber are slim (although the Mariners have already signed Schwarber's college teammate, former Red Sox Sam Travis, to a minor league contract).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/rays-to-re-sign-mike-zunino.html

Will the Rays have interest in Christian Vazquez after re-signing cacther Mike Zunino?

Any Tampa Bay interest in Christian Vazquez might be lessened after the Rays re-signed catcher Mike Zunino: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/rays-to-re-sign-mike-zunino.html

The Royals would be better off just signing Renato Nunez and keeping Brad Keller, who is four weeks younger than Bobby Dalbec. ZiPS projects Keller with a 2021 WAR of 2.3 to the projected 0.8 for Dalbec. The 3-to-6 years of team control is not enough to make up the difference.

Despite its current small budget, Seattle historically has not been a small-market team. As recently as 2018 the Mariners had a Top 10 payroll and again this year Seattle did not qualify for a competitive balance draft pick for small-market and low-revenue teams. The Mariners probably are not looking to merely slash payroll but the rebuild necessarily involves the acquisition of young players with lower pre-arbitration salaries. Just as the Astros did in the past decade, the M's are saving money to spend later when the rebuild approaches fruition: https://www.statista.com/statistics/205619/team-payroll-of-the-houston-astros/ Seattle does not want to be the worker who lives paycheck-to-paycheck without saving for the future.

Perhaps it's time to find a more exciting team to follow. Or not.

Indeed Steamer projects Rick Porcello with a 2021 WAR of 1.9 in 31 starts, ZiPS a 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 24 starts and Marcel a 2021 ERA of 5.05 in 107 innings.

Baseball Trade Values accepts a trade of Christian Vazquez for outfielder/thirdbaseman Josh Lowe (a former No. 13 pick) and one-time Red Sox lefthander Jalen Beeks, who is expected to miss the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Keep expectations Lowe in a Vazquez trade. A Tampa Bay Times columnist discusses Kevin Kiermaier as a trade candidate: https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2020/12/08/like-it-or-not-the-time-might-be-right-for-rays-to-trade-kevin-kiermaier/

This year righthander Rick Porcello posted 1.7 fWAR in 12 starts, which prorates to 4.5 fWAR in 32 starts: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rick-porcello/2717/stats?position=P

Over the Monster had Garrett Whitlock at the top of its Rule 5 list (in no particular order): https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/12/10/22167249/boston-red-sox-rule-5-draft-preview-mlb-chaim-bloom-garrett-whitlock-paul-campbell-matt-krook

Fine work. notin should tutor Swiharts Ghost.

A Kansas City fan might find Bobby Dalbec, Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran overvalued. Or not.

If the Red Sox can live with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s career OPS+ of 94, including 95 over the past three seasons. Jurickson Profar has a UZR/150 of 14.8 with 8 runs saved in 560.2 career innings in the outfield, including a UZR/150 of 14.7 with 4 runs saved in 304.1 innings this year. Bradley has a UZR/150 of 6.8 with 53 runs saved in 7,409 career innings in the outfield, including a UZR/150 of 5.5 with 5 runs saved in 471 innings this year. Profar, who is three years younger than Bradley, remains an unlikely target for the Red Sox ... and Bradley remains a likely target.

The defensive metrics are unkind to Jurickson Profar at second base but, in a small sample, quite positive in left field. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jurickson-profar/10815/stats#advanced-fielding

A year earlier the 2003 Seattle Mariners had a five-man rotation that started all 162 games: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml That year the Mariners won 93 games but missed the postseason for the second straight year (a streak that now is up to 19 seasons).

The list does not include free agent and former No. 1 prospect Jurickson Profar, who paired up with Xander Bogaerts on the Netherlands national team: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2017/03/11/baseball/talented-youthful-dutch-squad-no-longer-secret/ Profar is the 34th-ranked free agent at MLB Trade Rumors and the 35th-ranked prospect at FanGraphs: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/ MLB Trade Rumors projects Profar with a one-year, $7 million contract while FanGraphs columnist Craig Edwards projects a two-year, $9 million contract. The FanGraphs crowdsource pegs Profar with a two-year, $15 million contract. A promising team may target Profar: https://theathletic.com/2240359/2020/12/08/mariners-offseason-questions-who-will-play-left-field-in-2021/

If Nathan Eovaldi was worth four years and $68 million then fellow 6-foot-2 righthander Kevin Gausman makes sense at $18.9 million for one year. Eovaldi was one year younger than Gausman's current age when Eovaldi signed the $68 million deal. At the time Eovaldi had posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $94.1 million, in 850 innings. Gausman has posted 15.0 fWAR, valued at $119.2 million in 985 career innings. Eovaldi was coming off a season with an ERA of 3.81 and ERA+ of 111 in 112 innings, including an ERA of 3.33 and ERA+ of 133 in 54 innings with the Red Sox. In the 2018 postseason Eovaldi also posted an ERA of 1.61 in 22 innings. This year Gausman posted an ERA of 3.62 and an ERA+ of 118 in 59.2 innings.