harmony

The 2021 Marcel projections for Christian Arroyo and Michael Chavis: CA 279 PA, .242/.320/.411/.731 MC 452 PA, .243/.314/.423/.737 Steamer projects 2021 wRC+ of 88 for Arroyo and 86 for Chavis, who is a few months younger than Arroyo.

With the owners crying pandemic-related poverty, the CBT threshold might remain the same or even go lower. Or not.

The Red Sox could suffer long-term negative consequences by spending up to the CBT limit in this pedestrian free agent market.

Trevor Bauer offers his offseason criteria in this 14-minute video:

A Seattle blogger proposed a Mariner trade for Andrew Benintendi: https://sodomojo.com/2021/01/10/seattle-mariners-andrew-benintendi/ Count me among M's fans who are irrationally attached to Sam Carlson, a 22-year-old one-time second-round draft pick whose college and professional experience is limited to three innings at the rookie level in 2017. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/missing-3-seasons-to-injury-and-the-pandemic-the-mariners-sam-carlson-is-patient-and-regaining-his-confidence/ As a side note, earlier this month I lambasted other trade proposals by the same Seattle blogger. Remorse set in when I read to bio of the young blogger, who had just graduated from college last spring after playing four years of Division III baseball. The coincidence was that in the nearly baseball-less 2020, the blogger played in a college game I attended in person pre-pandemic in February. I don't recall him specifically.

I'm a Seattle Mariner fan. What would I know about the postseason?

Andrew Benintendi's position, handedness and team control might be a fit for the Seattle Mariners. Or not. Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto was quoted this week: “We are even open to the idea if the right bat, part left-handed bat, fell to us. ... Could be a little bit of infield, could be some left field, just find that left-handed bat, that’s what we would be shopping for.” https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1259584/drayer-where-the-seattle-mariners-26-man-mlb-roster-currently-stands/ For two years of Benintendi (with his 2021 salary of $6.6 million), would the Red Sox consider five years of 25-year-old righthander Justin Dunn, a one-time first-round pick out of Boston College, who in 2020 posted an ERA of 4.34 in 10 starts for the Mariners? Baseball Trade Values approves a trade of two years of Benintendi to Seattle for six years of righthander Ljay Newsome and six years of outfield prospect Zack DeLoach, who was taken in the second round of the 2020 draft: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-36516/

ZiPS and Steamer project Kyle Schwarber with a 2021 WAR of 2.0, which in 2020 was valued at about $16 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/stats?position=OF

FWIW righthander Jameson Taillon has an ERA+ of 112 in 466 career innings while free agent righthander Taijuan Walker, who is nine months younger than Taillon, has an ERA+ of 108 in 581.2 career innings. Since the start of the 2019 season Taillon has an ERA+ of 106 in 37.1 innings while Walker has an ERA+ of 165 in 54.1 innings. Taillon and Walker were taken out of high school in the 2010 draft, Taillon with the second pick and Walker with the 43rd pick. The Baseball America Top 100 prospects lists ranked Taillon and Walker No. 15 and No. 20 in 2012, No. 19 and and No. 18 in 2013 and No. 22 and No. 11 in 2014. Taillon has undergone Tommy John surgery twice and Walker once; Taillon also had surgery for testicular cancer. Baseball Reference lists Taillon at 6-5, 230 pounds and Walker at 6-4, 235 pounds. Combined, they're Taijuan Taillon.

Well organized, well written ... and optimistic.

The Red Sox front office will wisely look beyond the 2021 Opening Day payroll. Long-term contracts for top free agents will contribute to a baseline payroll for 2022 and beyond. After this season the Red Sox could shed the salaries of Eduardo Rodriguez and Matt Barnes but would likely need replacements. Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo will become more expensive even without extensions. Sure, the Red Sox this offseason could spend up to the CBT threshold and beyond but other clubs could spend as much without approaching the threshold. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Red Sox have a projected 2021 40-man CBT payroll of $174.8 million, which is $35.2 million under the CBT limit. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers at $197.8 million and New York Mets at $180.6 million have higher projected payrolls. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros come in just behind the Red Sox. The other 24 clubs offer a wide range of payroll capabilities. In recent years some profitable franchises have significantly reduced payroll not to line the pockets of owners but to strategically rebuild rosters. In the past decade the strategy brought World Series titles to Houston and Kansas City. Until the past year the prevailing thought was that the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement would increase the CBT threshold. That prospect becomes less likely with the owners crying poverty amid the COVID-19 pandemic. A potential work stoppage would further complicate matters. In short, spending by the Red Sox in a weak free agent market this offseason would bring the club closer to the CBT threshold. The outlay could hamstring the franchise in its pursuit of upgrades in an uncertain future. Or not.

And some teams will have more payroll flexibility than the Red Sox.

Righthander Tomoyuki Sugano reportedly wants a more lucrative contract than the four-year, $56 million contract lefthander Yusei Kikuchi signed two years ago with the Seattle Mariners: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/01/boston-red-sox-face-thursday-deadline-to-reach-deal-with-tomoyuki-sugano-righty-still-weighing-return-to-japan.html Kikuchi could be a comp for Sugano ... or not. At any rate, here are the 2021 Steamer projections for Jake Odorizzi and Kikuchi: JO 28 GS, 4.64 ERA, 1.8 WAR YK 29 GS, 4.18 ERA, 2.2 WAR ... and the 2021 ZiPS projections: JO 27 GS, 4.09 ERA, 2.6 WAR YK 24 GS, 4.37 ERA, 1.7 WAR Sugano is 31 years old, Odorizzi 30 years old and Kikuchi 29 years old.

Josh Reddick's 2020 defensive metrics were not good: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/josh-reddick/3892/stats?position=OF#advanced-fielding

Former Red Sox rightfielder Josh Reddick, a 2012 Gold Glove winner, is available.

Between 2015 and 2019, former Stetson University righthanders won four Cy Young Awards: Corey Kluber (2015, 2016) and Jacob deGrom (2018, 2019). The next tall righthander out of Stetson to contend for the Cy Young Award: Seattle hopeful Logan Gilbert, the 35th-ranked prospect at MLB Pipeline: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gilber000log Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball Or not.

That article references a John Tomase column that predicts the Red Sox will, among other things, sign Jake Odorizzi and Corey Kluber: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/21-fearless-predictions-2021-boston-red-sox?b Would that be enough for the Red Sox rotation?

Still some familiar names on the Golden Spikes list: https://www.usabaseball.com/golden-spikes-award/history/winners

My pessimistic expectation for Bobby Dalbec resembles my pessimistic expectation a year ago for 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. Here are their stats from their brief MLB debut seasons: 2019 KL 18 G, 75 PA, 10 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .268/.293/.592/.885, OPS+ 131 2020 BD 23 G, 92 PA, 13 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, .263/.359/.600/.959, OPS+ 152 Their 2021 ZiPS projections: KL 122 G, 472 PA, 51 R, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .227/.282/.377/.659, -0.2 WAR BD 121 G, 447 PA, 57 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, .217/.302/.409/.711, 0.8 WAR Their 2021 Steamer projections: KL 149 G, 650 PA, 71 R, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .231/.309/.393/.702, 1.5 WAR BD 133 G, 531 PA, 68 R, 27 HR, 74 RBI, .234/.318/.456/.774, 0.6 WAR ... and their 2021 Marcel projections: KL 534 PA, 76 R, 24 HR, 68 RBI, .257/.343/.452/.795 BD 324 PA, 43 R, 16 HR, 45 RBI, .249/.336/.470/.807 FWIW Dalbec is two weeks older than the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year.

The Cot's spreadsheet starts in 1991. The Red Sox signed Matt Young on December 4, 1990, Jack Clark on December 15, 1990, and Danny Darwin on December 19, 1990.

The 2020 book A Fan's Guide to Baseball Analytics: Why WAR, WHIP, wOBA, and Other Advanced Sabermetrics Are Essential to Understanding Modern Baseball by MLB.com writer Anthony Castrovince takes a light approach in explaining the modern stats: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/A-Fans-Guide-to-Baseball-Analytics/Anthony-Castrovince/9781683583448 ... without the condescension in Keith Law's 2017 book Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball.: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/smart-baseball-keith-law?variant=32206562459682

MLB Trade Rumors updates on the Red Sox offseason (including Ha-Seong Kim, Kiké Hernández and Jackie Bradley Jr.): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/red-sox-notes-kim-hernandez-arroyo-bradley-jr.html

Rick Porcello, who is only 14 months older than Nathan Eovaldi, has a career ERA+ of 98 in 2,096 career innings while Eovaldi had a career ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings. Steamer and ZiPS project Porcello with 1.9 WAR in 177 innings and 1.5 WAR in 139 innings while projecting Eovaldi with 2.8 WAR in 171 innings and 0.9 WAR in 74 innings.

Eduardo Rodriguez and Luis Severino provide interesting comps: ER DOB 4/7/93, 5 MLB seasons, 127 G, 122 GS, 699.0 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.86 K/BB, 113 ERA+, 13.6 bWAR, 10.7 fWAR LS DOB 2/20/94. 5 MLB seasons, 99 G, 88 GS, 530.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.93 K/BB, 125 ERA+, 11.7 bWAR, 12.8 fWAR Rodriguez finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2019 while Severino finished third in 2017 and ninth in 2018. Rodriguez has one year of team control and Severino two years of team control. Nathan Eovaldi's "longer period of success" includes an ERA+ of 96 in 966 innings over nine seasons.

Cot's Baseball Contracts now offers a feature that lists free agent contracts over the past 30 years for each team, including the Red Sox: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L4T9k8pGDDt8kVd1rvboacYdXpafHsOB2nhEGAGEaAY/edit#gid=1428273551