harmony

Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 1.7 and 1.5 for Andrew Benintendi and 1.9 and 2.0 for Kyle Schwarber: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andrew-benintendi/17901/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/stats?position=OF Schwarber, who is 16 months older than Benintendi, was the fourth pick in the 2014 draft while Benintendi was the seventh pick in the 2015 draft.

Corner outfielder Jake Fraley and prospect righthander Isaiah Campbell from Seattle would fit the bill if the Red Sox added lefty reliever Josh Taylor: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-38289/ Tampa Bay selected Fraley in the second round of the 2016 draft when Chaim Bloom was with the Rays. Campbell was Seattle's second-round pick in 2019.

The website declined the 6-for-1 trade for Luis Castillo because “You need to add at least one high-value to the other side of the trade for it to be accepted, and make sure there’s not too many.”

Alex Cora reportedly says the Red Sox currently have more pitching depth than they did in 2019 and 2020: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pitching-notes-castillo-reds-anibal-red-sox-cora.html

The Boston Globe on Sunday posted columnist Alex Speier's take on the Red Sox offseason: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/01/17/sports/there-are-reasons-red-sox-patient-approach-there-are-many-holes-fill-plenty-options-still-out-there/

This website suggests that Alex Verdugo, Triston Casas, Jeter Downs, Tanner Houck, Bryan Mata and Connor Seabold would be just enough for the Red Sox to land Luis Castillo: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Some posters on this forum are in over their heads and overmatched. Or not.

From today's MLB Trade Rumors chat with columnist Mark Polishuk: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-9686.html This Seattle fan holds in high regard 25-year-old righthander Justin Dunn, the Boston College product who last season posted an ERA of 4.34 in 10 starts. Still, the Mariners should probably trade five years of Dunn for two years of Andrew Benintendi.

As with any offseason, we are waiting for the tipping point ... which may come late this year, but it will come. Free agents and front offices are in staredowns, knowing that numerous options remain on each side. As signings slowly come in, the market shrinks for both sides. The tipping point comes when the market shrinks to a point that the free agents and front offices worry about being left out. Then comes the flurry of signings. Or not. Be patient.

Today the Yankees improved relative to the Red Sox and others ... but it was just one day. The Red Sox may make the major improvements next week or next month. Or not.

So could the Seattle Mariners. Garrett Richards had his best years with the Angels when Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto was general manager in Anaheim.

An MLB.com website lists Alex Vedugo as the fourth-best centerfielder in baseball: ... even though last year Verdugo played only eight of his 422 outfield innings in center.

The 2021 Marcel projections for Christian Arroyo and Michael Chavis: CA 279 PA, .242/.320/.411/.731 MC 452 PA, .243/.314/.423/.737 Steamer projects 2021 wRC+ of 88 for Arroyo and 86 for Chavis, who is a few months younger than Arroyo.

With the owners crying pandemic-related poverty, the CBT threshold might remain the same or even go lower. Or not.

The Red Sox could suffer long-term negative consequences by spending up to the CBT limit in this pedestrian free agent market.

Trevor Bauer offers his offseason criteria in this 14-minute video:

A Seattle blogger proposed a Mariner trade for Andrew Benintendi: https://sodomojo.com/2021/01/10/seattle-mariners-andrew-benintendi/ Count me among M's fans who are irrationally attached to Sam Carlson, a 22-year-old one-time second-round draft pick whose college and professional experience is limited to three innings at the rookie level in 2017. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/missing-3-seasons-to-injury-and-the-pandemic-the-mariners-sam-carlson-is-patient-and-regaining-his-confidence/ As a side note, earlier this month I lambasted other trade proposals by the same Seattle blogger. Remorse set in when I read to bio of the young blogger, who had just graduated from college last spring after playing four years of Division III baseball. The coincidence was that in the nearly baseball-less 2020, the blogger played in a college game I attended in person pre-pandemic in February. I don't recall him specifically.

I'm a Seattle Mariner fan. What would I know about the postseason?

Andrew Benintendi's position, handedness and team control might be a fit for the Seattle Mariners. Or not. Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto was quoted this week: “We are even open to the idea if the right bat, part left-handed bat, fell to us. ... Could be a little bit of infield, could be some left field, just find that left-handed bat, that’s what we would be shopping for.” https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1259584/drayer-where-the-seattle-mariners-26-man-mlb-roster-currently-stands/ For two years of Benintendi (with his 2021 salary of $6.6 million), would the Red Sox consider five years of 25-year-old righthander Justin Dunn, a one-time first-round pick out of Boston College, who in 2020 posted an ERA of 4.34 in 10 starts for the Mariners? Baseball Trade Values approves a trade of two years of Benintendi to Seattle for six years of righthander Ljay Newsome and six years of outfield prospect Zack DeLoach, who was taken in the second round of the 2020 draft: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-36516/

ZiPS and Steamer project Kyle Schwarber with a 2021 WAR of 2.0, which in 2020 was valued at about $16 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/stats?position=OF

FWIW righthander Jameson Taillon has an ERA+ of 112 in 466 career innings while free agent righthander Taijuan Walker, who is nine months younger than Taillon, has an ERA+ of 108 in 581.2 career innings. Since the start of the 2019 season Taillon has an ERA+ of 106 in 37.1 innings while Walker has an ERA+ of 165 in 54.1 innings. Taillon and Walker were taken out of high school in the 2010 draft, Taillon with the second pick and Walker with the 43rd pick. The Baseball America Top 100 prospects lists ranked Taillon and Walker No. 15 and No. 20 in 2012, No. 19 and and No. 18 in 2013 and No. 22 and No. 11 in 2014. Taillon has undergone Tommy John surgery twice and Walker once; Taillon also had surgery for testicular cancer. Baseball Reference lists Taillon at 6-5, 230 pounds and Walker at 6-4, 235 pounds. Combined, they're Taijuan Taillon.

Well organized, well written ... and optimistic.

The Red Sox front office will wisely look beyond the 2021 Opening Day payroll. Long-term contracts for top free agents will contribute to a baseline payroll for 2022 and beyond. After this season the Red Sox could shed the salaries of Eduardo Rodriguez and Matt Barnes but would likely need replacements. Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo will become more expensive even without extensions. Sure, the Red Sox this offseason could spend up to the CBT threshold and beyond but other clubs could spend as much without approaching the threshold. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Red Sox have a projected 2021 40-man CBT payroll of $174.8 million, which is $35.2 million under the CBT limit. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers at $197.8 million and New York Mets at $180.6 million have higher projected payrolls. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros come in just behind the Red Sox. The other 24 clubs offer a wide range of payroll capabilities. In recent years some profitable franchises have significantly reduced payroll not to line the pockets of owners but to strategically rebuild rosters. In the past decade the strategy brought World Series titles to Houston and Kansas City. Until the past year the prevailing thought was that the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement would increase the CBT threshold. That prospect becomes less likely with the owners crying poverty amid the COVID-19 pandemic. A potential work stoppage would further complicate matters. In short, spending by the Red Sox in a weak free agent market this offseason would bring the club closer to the CBT threshold. The outlay could hamstring the franchise in its pursuit of upgrades in an uncertain future. Or not.

And some teams will have more payroll flexibility than the Red Sox.

Righthander Tomoyuki Sugano reportedly wants a more lucrative contract than the four-year, $56 million contract lefthander Yusei Kikuchi signed two years ago with the Seattle Mariners: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/01/boston-red-sox-face-thursday-deadline-to-reach-deal-with-tomoyuki-sugano-righty-still-weighing-return-to-japan.html Kikuchi could be a comp for Sugano ... or not. At any rate, here are the 2021 Steamer projections for Jake Odorizzi and Kikuchi: JO 28 GS, 4.64 ERA, 1.8 WAR YK 29 GS, 4.18 ERA, 2.2 WAR ... and the 2021 ZiPS projections: JO 27 GS, 4.09 ERA, 2.6 WAR YK 24 GS, 4.37 ERA, 1.7 WAR Sugano is 31 years old, Odorizzi 30 years old and Kikuchi 29 years old.