harmony

FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron discusses Rafael Devers and Fenway Park: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/we-need-to-talk-about-rafael-devers/

Commentary on Eric Hosmer's worth on the free agent market: https://www.royalsreview.com/2016/7/14/12189516/eric-hosmer-could-be-seeking-ten-year-200-million-deal https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/5/26/15688710/eric-hosmer-royals-kansas-city-free-agency-stats-purists ... and an analysis with an interesting comparison with Mitch Moreland: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-leaderboard-of-interest-to-potential-bidders-for-eric-hosmer/

Even with Rafael Devers' 0.7 fWAR, the Red Sox have posted a negative 1.8 fWAR at third base since the start of the 2015 season: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ... ranking a distant, distant last among the 30 MLB teams.

wRC+, which takes into account BABIP, has Danny Valencia at 96 this year and 103 for his career while Mitch Moreland is at 92 this year and 98 for his career. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6364&position=3B http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B#core Valencia's poor defensive reputation can be attributed largely to his play in previous years at third base and in the outfield. This year Valencia has posted a UZR/150 of 0.6 in 845 innings at first base while Moreland has posted a UZR/150 of 1.4 in 818 innings at first base. Valencia and Moreland each have four Defensive Runs Saved at first base this season, according to The Fielding Bible: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6364&position=3B#fieldingadvanced http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B#fieldingadvanced We can probably agree that neither Valencia nor Moreland presents an attractive option for 2018.

No love for Danny Valencia (who has pretty much matched Mitch Moreland's production this year)?

ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts have modest rest-of-season projections for Rafael Devers: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B#core ... highlighted at bottom of Dashboard. An Instagraphs system has optimistic long-range projections for Devers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/projecting-rafael-devers/

Teams have little incentive to place a player on the disabled list after the rosters expand on September 1. Last year Carlos Carrasco was out for the season before September 1 but the Guardians never placed the righthander on the disabled list.

East Coast rain-outs are particularly frustrating for West Coast teams (which rarely have rain-outs). Despite its reputation, Seattle averaged 7.99 inches of precipitation for the six months from April through September while Boston averages 21.11 inches over the same period. Safeco Field's retractable roof is overused. The average precipitation is closer in October when Seattle averages 3.27 inches and Boston 3.94 inches. Of course the Mariners rarely play October baseball.

Some posters make meaningful contributions to the forum without even alluding to profanity.

Bingo ... we have a winner. Jamie Moyer posted 34.6 bWAR for the Mariners, Jason Varitek 24.3 bWAR for the Red Sox and Derek Lowe 19.4 bWAR for the Red Sox.

To follow up on my trivia question: Happy 21st Anniversary of the Darren Bragg trade!

FanGraphs prospects columnist Eric Longenhagen scouts the traded Red Sox prospects: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-the-mets-return-for-addison-reed/

Win some, lose some. Trivia: Of the deals made by the Red Sox and Mariners at the trade deadlines in 1996 and 1997, what player produced the most WAR for his new team (by a wide margin)?

I thought two months of Addison Reed would cost more. Good trade for the Red Sox. MLB Prospect Watch ranked the traded Boston prospects No. 18, No. 23 and No. 28 in the Red Sox system: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=bos And it may help my fantasy team by turning the Mets closer role over to newly acquired AJ Ramos.

That's true. The last team to win 78 games and finish last was the 2006 Seattle Mariners.

If the Red Sox are willing to give up no more than Michael Chavis the Sox probably can't expect to land a reliever better than Addison Reed (and an offer with Chavis might not be enough to compete with other offers).

If Dan Shaughnessy's tweet is not correct, David Price should be justifiably angry. Otherwise ...

Xander Bogaerts has a career OPS+ of 101, including 107 over the past two-and-a-half years: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml This Seattle fan has pondered the respective trade values of shortstops Xander Bogaerts and Jean Segura, who have each posted 7.0 fWAR since the start of the 2016 season. Bogaerts remains under team control for two more arbitration years, through his age 26 season to his 27th birthday in 2019, working off his 2017 salary of $4.5 million. Segura remains under team control through his age 32 season in 2022 by virtue of a five-year, $70 million extension signed last month. Assuming Bogaerts earns a combined $16 million over the next two arbitration seasons, could he then land a three-year, $54 million contract as a free agent? Considering the qualifying offer will likely exceed $18 million, I suspect Bogaerts would cost more than $54 million for three years. As a practical matter, a 27-year-old Bogaerts would be likely to secure a contract of longer duration. Just some thoughts.

Two-plus years of Xander Bogaerts, with a career wRC+ of 101, including 96 this season, won't land a huge package. As a point of reference, Eduardo Nunez has a career wRC+ of 94, including 100 this year. In his trade value analysis, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron wrote: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-41-to-50/ Current projections have Bogaerts at a respectable 3.5 fWAR this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12161&position=SS

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/07/trade-analysis-scouting-prospects-dealt.html http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-the-giants-return-for-eduardo-nunez/

Just as the Red Sox won two of three from the Mariners in Boston earlier this year.

This week my fantasy team has reaped the benefits of starts by lefthanders James Paxton and Chris Sale in their respective teams' 4-0 wins: JP 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 103 NP CS 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 11 K, 115 NP

That was my hope.

Crazy from which side? Justin Bour offers three-plus years of a power-hitting first baseman who this year has posted an fWAR higher than all but three Red Sox hitters (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia, with Jackie Bradley and Bour tied at 1.8 fWAR). A.J. Ramos offers one-plus years of a veteran reliever who is one year removed from posting an fWAR higher than Craig Kimbrel. Jason Groome and Michael Chavis are distant prospects ranked No. 87 and No. 96 in Baseball America's midseason rankings: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#FdjsDrA5P8rFLjRU.97

This Seattle fan's fantasy team had the starting pitcher for the winning team in each of the three games in this series. At least that's a consolation.