harmony

That’s true but I doubt the Marlins will trade Marcell Ozuna for Jackie Bradley’s one added year of team control. The Fish would be looking for longer-term assets. Perhaps the proposed trade works for neither team.

I suspect other teams had some interest in Blake Swihart and that the Red Sox were open to trading the switch-hitting catcher. The problem was (and perhaps still is) that other teams did not value Swihart as highly as the Red Sox did. Swihart was not the can’t-miss prospect some folks promoted.

To be clear: I do not advocate a trade of Xander Bogaerts. The Red Sox would be trading low on a player with diminished trade value.

In terms of trade value years of team control play a significant role. Xander Bogaerts’ team control has dropped nearly 20 percent since the FanGraphs midseason trade value rankings. We’re talking about two years of shortstop who this year dropped to eighth place in the fWAR rankings. Bogaerts has trade value but is an unspectacular shortstop in a field that includes the younger Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa, as well as a converted former shortstop in Manny Machado, who is only a few months older. Addison Russell, who is 15 months younger, has been even less spectacular.

I would note that Xander Bogaerts’ midseason trade value ranking had dropped from No. 20 the previous year. I suspect the slide continues.

The Diamondbacks certainly get the short end of that deal, giving up four years of a potentially better shortstop, plus their top two prospects ranked in the Top 100 overall, for two years of an unspectacular Xander Bogaerts. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=ari

The Los Angeles Dodgers traded Willie Calhoun to the Texas Rangers in the Yu Darvish deadline deal.

I question whether Blake Swihart qualifies as a "good switch hitter." Swihart, who turns 26 in April, has posted a wRC+ of 93 in 390 MLB plate appearances and a sub-100 wRC+ in 485 plate appearances at the Triple A level. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C Nevertheless I hope Swihart has a productive career.

The Red Sox traded for Eduardo Rodriguez in July 2014 after a knee injury had shelved the then 21-year-old lefthander for five weeks earlier in the season: https://nesn.com/2014/09/red-sox-prospect-eduardo-rodriguez-learned-a-lot-from-johan-santana/ The Red Sox have been fortunate to squeeze 5.0 fWAR from Rodriguez in 66 games over the past three seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13164&position=P

MLB Trade Rumors offered a column and poll on improving the Red Sox hitting: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-improving-bostons-offense.html

FWIW, this season Eric Hosmer and Jose Abreu each posted 4.1 fWAR in 162 and 156 games, respectively, while J.D. Martinez posted 3.8 fWAR in 119 games. The 30-year-old Martinez has played in more than 123 games in a single season only once in his seven-year MLB career (158 games in 2015).

Jose Abreu is not a free agent. Abreu remains under team control for two more seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $17.9 million. Abreu, who turns 31 in January, would command more than $48 million as a free agent after posting 14.5 fWAR, valued at $113.4 million, over his first four MLB seasons.

I agree but I was responding to notin's suggestion that a slugger's contract could bring down the cost in trade.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Jose Abreu with a 2018 arbitration salary of $17.9 million: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html

The rare analysis that borders on objective. Nice work.

Albert Pujols. Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera could be available in trade ...

In his "dip" year Josh Donaldson posted 5 fWAR, valued at $39.6 million: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5038&position=3B#value As points of reference, Mookie Betts led the Red Sox hitters with 5.3 fWAR followed by Xander Bogaerts with 3.2 fWAR and Jackie Bradley Jr. with 2.3 fWAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players= Heath Hembree, Deven Marrero and Michael Chavis have limited trade value. A poster at BP Boston suggested a trade of Bradley, Eduardo Rodriguez and "someone like Jalen Beeks" for two years of Miami outfielder Marcell Ozuna: http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/what-comes-next/

I suspect the Toronto Blue Jays would receive better offers for one year of Josh Donaldson, who has posted 35.2 fWAR, valued at more than $275 million, over the past five seasons. I doubt the Red Sox would take on two 2018 salaries likely in excess of $20 million each for J.D. Martinez and Donaldson. The Blue Jay third baseman comes with one arbitration year of team control working off his 2017 salary of $17 million.

Brian Johnson seems to fit the Seattle MO: a post-prospect starter/long reliever who can go through an opponent's lineup once or twice in a game. The Mariners may employ a tag-team approach by which no pitcher goes more than four innings in a game. The nearly 27-year-old Johnson could be reunited with college battery-mate Mike Zunino, who like Johnson was taken out of the University of Florida in the first round of the 2012 draft: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2012&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round The finest game of Johnson's MLB career came in a shutout of the Mariners on May 27 of this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201705270.shtml

MLB Trade Rumors has posted a poll on how much Eric Hosmer will earn in free agency this offseason: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-how-much-will-eric-hosmer-earn-in-free-agency.html#comments

I hope Blake Swihart has a productive career but I had guarded expectations even before his injury. I have drawn comparisons of Swihart, who peaked at No. 17 on Baseball America's prospect chart in 2015, to catchers Travis D'Arnaud (who peaked at No. 17 in 2012), Devin Mesoraco (who peaked at No. 16 in 2012) and Mike Zunino (who peaked at No. 17 in 2013). Those catchers have experienced varying degrees of success, including Mesoraco's All Star appearance in 2014, but collectively they demonstrate of uncertain futures of former top prospects. Swihart's marginal bat may be good enough to play at catcher but his defensive skills behind the plate may be lacking. Swihart's trade value has fallen behind that of backup Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki, who was BA's 63rd-ranked prospect the year Swihart ranked No. 16. Plawecki, a superior defender who is a year older than Swihart, has posted wRC+ of 120 and 128 the last two seasons at Triple A and a wRC+ of 106 in 118 MLB plate appearances this year. Red Sox fans praised Swihart for his bat when he posted a wRC+ of 93 in his 2015 rookie season. Swihart has a sub-100 wRC+ in 483 career plate appearances at Triple A. On this forum before the season started I wrote that Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 would determine whether he has more, less or the same trade value as a same-aged Jarrod Saltalamacchia had in July 2010 when the Rangers traded the switch-hitting catcher to the Red Sox for spare parts. I also wrote that the Red Sox would be pleased if Swihart's age 25 season this year resembled Zunino's age 25 season in 2016. Swihart, like Zunino the year before, was a former 17th-ranked top prospect who was starting his age 25 at Triple A after a stint as a starting MLB catcher. Unfortunately Swihart regressed in his age 25 season while Zunino advanced. Let's hope Swihart rebounds from his disappointing 2017 season.

Comparing three-time Gold Glove winner Eric Hosmer (DOB 10/24/89) with Sam Travis (DOB 8/27/93) is more far-fetched than comparing Jackie Bradley (DOB 4/19/90) with Yankee outfield prospect Jake Cave (DOB 12/4/92). In the International League this year the now 24-year-old Travis posted a wRC+ of 107 in 342 plate appearances while the 24-year-old Cave posted a wRC+ of 156 in 297 plate appearances. Cave is considered the superior defender. As a 21-year-old in 2011 Hosmer posted a wRC+ of 187 in 118 plate appearances at Triple A and a wRC+ of 113 in 563 plate appearances at the MLB level. Hosmer peaked at No. 8 in 2011 on Baseball America's preseason prospect list while Bradley peaked at No. 31 in 2013. Neither Travis nor Cave has cracked a BA Top 100 prospect list. I suspect Hosmer would be significantly better than Travis.

I ran across this scouting report of a Red Sox prospect ranked No. 15 in the organization five years ago: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/boston-red-sox-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

David Price was 30 years, three months old in December 2015 when the Red Sox signed the lefthander to a seven-year, $217 million contract.

From Wednesday's chat with MLB Trade Rumors columnist Jason Martinez: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-with-jason-martinez-october-11-2017-2637.html Of course that's not the real-life J.D. Martinez.