harmony

Seattle has three years and about $38 million in remaining obligations to nearly 30-year-old righthander Mike Leake, who this year posted 3.1 fWAR, valued at $24.6 million, including 1.3 fWAR, valued at $10.1 million, in only five starts for the Mariners: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10130&position=P That's a modest contract for a solid mid-rotation starter. Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager is entrenched with four years and $73.5 million (plus bonuses) remaining on his contract after posting 24.9 fWAR, valued at $197.2 million, over the last six seasons. Seattle designated hitter Nelson Cruz has one year and $14 million remaining on his contract after posting 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, in his first three years with the Mariners.

The Mariners have no big contract on a player who has posted 0.6 fWAR over the past three seasons (including two years of negative fWAR). The big Seattle contracts are Robinson Cano’s (six years and $144 million) and Felix Hernandez’s (two years and $53 million). Only the latter is under water. I seriously doubt the Mariners would trade Cano straight up for the five years and $157 million remaining on the David Price contract.

Good luck with that.

No one wants the Hanley Ramirez contract. That's why the Red Sox would need to package Ramirez with a player or players who have surplus value. It's a simple concept. I suspect a team would trade two years of a non-closing reliever for Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts.

Dumping Hanley Ramirez, who has significant negative trade value, would require that the Red Sox package a player with surplus value (or that the Red Sox take back an equally bad contract, negating the salary savings).

Would anyone here trade Jackie Bradley Jr., Hanley Ramirez and $5 million to Seattle for reliever Nick Vincent? Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $5.9 million. Ramirez is owed $22 million in 2018 with a 2019 option for $22 million that vests with 497 plate appearances and a passed physical. Vincent remains under team control for two seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $2.7 million. The Red Sox would save about $20 million off the 2018 budget, freeing up funds to pursue free agents J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer. Ramirez would be reunited with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Jean Segura, his Dominican Republic teammates in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. The Mariners would take the huge risk that Ramirez can play first base. I have no shortage of bad ideas.

Unless Rusney Castillo is traded in a package with a player who has enough surplus value that the trade partner will pay Castillo's entire salary. But the Red Sox might not have an incentive to surrender surplus value because Castillo's salary does not count against the luxury tax.

Carson Smith could not hold down the closer's role in Seattle before his injury but perhaps the righthander can in Boston.

I suspect Seattle would prefer to re-sign Cuban outfielder Leonys Martin after his likely non-tender by the Cubs to trading for the costly contract of Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, who is older than Martin. But the inclusion of Jackie Bradley Jr. in a Castillo trade could tip the scales. To borrow another cliché, I admire Lookout Landing columnist Kate Preusser for thinking outside the box. She does fine work.

Let's turn the tables for these clubs that won 97 and 93 games this year en route to their respective East divisional titles. With Dustin Pedroia's knee surgery, let's assume the Red Sox are desperate for a second baseman. Compare the merits of these trade proposals: 1. One year of Craig Kimbrel for five years of Trea Turner, six years of Victor Robles and six years of Erick Fedde. 2. One year of Daniel Murphy for five years of Andrew Benintendi, six years of Rafael Devers and six years of Trey Ball. The 29-year-old Kimbrel, who is owed $13 million in the final year of his contract, has posted 6.0 fWAR over the past three seasons, including 3.3 fWAR this year. The 32-year-old Murphy, who is owed $17.5 million in the final year of his contract, has posted 12.3 fWAR over the past three seasons, including 4.3 fWAR this year. The 23-year-old Benintendi has posted 2.8 fWAR in 185 MLB games while the 24-year-old Turner has posted 6.4 fWAR in 198 MLB games. Turner ranked seventh on the FanGraphs midseason trade value list while Benintendi was unranked. Devers, who just turned 22 years old, was ranked sixth in Baseball America's midseason prospect rankings while Robles, who is seven months younger than Devers, ranked eighth: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#8LDbyHs9tRqA2cR2.97 The 23-year-old Ball was selected out of high school in the first round of the 2013 draft while the 24-year-old Fedde was taken out of college in the first round of the 2014 draft. Fedde ranked 70th on BA's midseason prospect list while Trey Ball went unranked. So, would the Red Sox trade five years of Andrew Benintendi, six years of Rafael Devers and six years of Trey Ball for one year of Daniel Murphy? That trade would be less lopsided than the proposed five years of Trea Turner, six years of Victor Robles and six years of Erick Fedde for one year of Craig Kimbrel. But neither proposal is realistic.

Perhaps you undervalue a Gold Glove-winning second baseman who has stolen 212 bases over the past four seasons while maintaining an above-average on-base percentage (an OBP six points higher than the Red Sox OBP over the the same period). Given his modest contract, 29-year-old Dee Gordon has significant surplus value. Then again, perhaps three years of Dee Gordon at $39 million has no more trade value than two years of Xander Bogaerts with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $7.6 million. Gordon has posted 12.5 fWAR in 530 games over the past four seasons while Bogaerts, who lacks Gordon's glove, has posted 12.7 fWAR in 605 games over the same period.

Perhaps one year of Craig Kimbrel straight up for six years of righthander Erick Fedde, a Top 100 prospect who was the Nats' first-round draft pick in 2014. No way would Washington part with shortstop Trea Turner, whom FanGraphs ranked seventh in trade value among all baseball players: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/ Likewise, the Nationals would not trade 20-year-old Victor Robles, the second-ranked prospect in all of baseball: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects Three years of Kimbrel cost the Red Sox only the 25th- and 76th-ranked prospects (Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra) and change: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015/

For a robust return in a trade. As a point of reference, Dustin Pedroia has posted 13.9 fWAR over the past four seasons while Dee Gordon has posted 12.4 fWAR over the same period. Pedroia, who is 4+ years older than Gordon, is owed $71 million over the next five years while Gordon has three years and about $39 million left on his contract.

Dee Gordon has posted 12.4 fWAR, valued at $98.2 million, over the past four years despite playing only 79 games in his suspension-shortened 2016 season. Gordon led the National League in stolen bases in those three full seasons. In contrast, Jed Lowrie, who is four years older than Gordon, has posted 5.7 fWAR over the past four seasons.

Dee Gordon has three years and about $39 million remaining on his contract after posting 3.3 fWAR, valued at $26.6 million, this year. The 2015 Gold Glove winner, who turns 30 in April, has posted an on-base percentage of .340 over the past three seasons. The Red Sox this year posted an on-base percentage of .329 after posting a .348 OBP in 2016,

I suspect Eduardo Nuñez will be looking for a permanent gig. And many Red Sox fans may be placing too much weight on his brief 38-game stint with the Sox as the 30-year-old Nuñez recovers from his own knee injury.

Pedroia reportedly to miss time in 2018: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/dustin_pedroia_boston_red_sox_15.html#incart_river_index

It's not limited to this board. MassLive columnist Jen McCaffrey suggests that the Twins and the Brewers, who this year made 26-win and 13-win improvements over 2016, trade some of their best players for Red Sox scraps: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/boston_red_sox_potential_trade.html#incart_river_index

Dustin Pedroia underwent knee surgery today, according to this tweet from Globe writer Pete Abraham: I stumbled upon this Pedroia report from 2006: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/05/pedroia-falling.html

Outfielder Aaron Judge of the Yankees more than doubled the fWAR of any other rookie this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ... while the Yankees' Jordan Montgomery and Chad Green topped all rookie pitchers in fWAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 What could possibly go wrong?

To be precise, the 2017 Diamondbacks won 93 games. The 2016 Red Sox won 93 games coming off two straight last-place finishes but did not approach the 2017 season assuming the 93 wins in 2016 represented a fluke. For what it's worth, this year the Diamondback posted 43.0 fWAR while the Red Sox posted 41.7 fWAR. The D-backs lose only J.D. Martinez,. David Hernandez, Fernando Rodney, Jorge de la Rosa, Chris Iannetta and Tom Wilhelmsen to free agency. http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2017/10/13/arizona-diamondbacks-roster-contracts-arbitration-free-agency/761879001/

Even with Zack Greinke's $34 million salary, the Diamondbacks have only $60 million in salary committed for 2018 with arbitration salaries awaiting A.J. Pollock, Patrick Corbin and others: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17aqI3EVO_C6fm3kVOYzqJMmaotL2ecszatykk5m7D9I/edit#gid=0

The Diamondbacks are as likely to shop Paul Goldschmidt as the Red Sox are to shop Mookie Betts.

I doubt the Arizona Diamondbacks, who won as many games as the Red Sox this year, are willing to part with their best hitter who remains under team control for two seasons at a bargain $25.5 million ($11 million in 2018 and $14.5 million in 2019).

I understand the Red Sox desire to upgrade an offense that fell from first place in the American League in hitting fWAR at 35.0 in 2016 to seventh at 17.8 fWAR this year. Still the Red Sox pitching improved from fifth place in fWAR at 18.1 in 2016 to third place in fWAR at 23.9 this year. Will the Red Sox pitching staff be able to repeat (or improve on) its 2017 performance? Can Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel maintain their torrid pace? Will David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg return effectively from injuries? Can Rick Porcello reclaim his Cy Young glory of 2016? Does Drew Pomeranz have another 3.0 fWAR season in him?