harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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This offseason Eduardo Nunez will be about seven months younger than Luis Valbuena was last offseason when the Los Angeles Angels signed Valbuena to a two-year, $15 million contract with a mutual option for a third year. Nunez is a 6-foot, 195-pound Dominican infielder with his fourth MLB organization. Valbuena was a 5-foot-10, 210-pound Venezuelan infielder with his fourth MLB organization when he reached free agency. Each has limited experience in the outfield. Nunez has posted 4.1 fWAR in 668 career games, including 5.8 fWAR over the past three seasons. When he signed his free agent contract, Valbuena had posted 8.1 fWAR in 798 games, including 6.3 fWAR over the three previous seasons.
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I was responding to notin's post about the Chicago White Sox: ... but I recognize that some folks prefer to live in a small world.
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The 2003 Seattle Mariners got 162 starts from their Opening Day rotation: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml ... and missed the postseason despite 93 wins as the Red Sox claimed the Wild Card with 95 wins.
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BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) can sometimes help explain a player's failure to post a consistent stat line. Randomness plays a large part. Some players seem to be streakier than others. I've divided Seattle catcher Mike Zunino's season into four uneven streaks starting with Opening Day: 29 G, .148/.227/.239/.465 27 G, .330/.392/.725/1.117 31 G, .160/.233/.383/.616 22 G, .343/.432/.629/1.061 For the season Zunino has posted a .239/.316/.487/.803 line in 383 plate appearances but that line does not suggest his lack of consistency.
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For what it's worth, the shortstops for the Red Sox and my Seattle Mariners -- Xander Bogaerts and Jean Segura -- have each experienced at least a .220 drop in OPS from pre-All Star break to post-All Star break this year: XBogaerts pre 351 PA, .303/.359/.447/.806 XBogaerts post 198 PA, .200/.273/.300/.573 JSegura pre 248 PA, .349/.390/.482/.872 JSegura post 240 PA, .237/.300/.352/.652
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I wonder whether Carson Smith's injury was related to his frequent use of the slider.
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In two MLB innings this year Carson Smith's fastball has average 92.0 mph, just below his career average of 92.9: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P#pitchtype Smith's average fastball this year ranks 15th among the 27 Red Sox pitchers while his career average would tie Addison Reed for 11th on the team: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d Smith no longer throws his most effective pitch, the slider, as frequently as the righthander did in his breakout 2015 season before Tommy John surgery.
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How many years (and how much money) would you offer Drew Pomeranz, who turns 29 in November?
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The difficulty is shedding the salaries of highly paid unproductive or underproductive players. Most teams could be more competitive in the free agent market if only they could shed highly paid unproductive players.
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That reminds me of trade proposals that included Pablo Sandoval to offset salary.
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Giancarlo Stanton has posted 6.0 fWAR this year. Joey Votto has posted 6.0 fWAR this year. Hanley Ramirez has posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this year. I assume three years of Mookie Betts or five years of Andrew Benintendi would need to be in the package to offset the production difference.
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Under a five-year, $70 million contract signed in June, Seattle shortstop Jean Segura remains under team control through the 2022 season with a team option for 2023. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/
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My friend in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reported two hours ago that he is bracing for Hurricane Irma. I hope everyone is OK.
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I did not laugh when FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron revisited Jon Heyman later in today's chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-9617/ I am simply heartbroken by the devastating fire reportedly started by a 15-year-old in my beloved Columbia Gorge. Ashes continue to fly outside my window.
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From today's FanGraphs chat with editor Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-9617/ The final line is snarky but I laughed anyway.
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It's probably a combination of players overperforming last year and underperforming this year. It happens, although the almost across-the-board drop in production is unusual.
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Some team had to be the pioneer in stealing signs by electronic means. Perhaps a team under great pressure to win ... perhaps not. I hope all allegations are thoroughly investigated and appropriate sanctions levied.
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I don't know about putting the ball in play, but here are the Red Sox and American League splits for swinging at the first pitch vs. taking the first pitch: RS swing 1091 PA, .260/.284/.407/.692 RS take 4277 PA, .259/.344/.409/.753 AL swing 22148 PA, .274/.299/.464/.763 AL take 56561 PA, .249/.336/.415/.751 https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2017 https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2017 The Red Sox swung at 20.3 percent of the first pitches while the league swung at 28.1 percent of the first pitches.
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MLB reportedly is investigating the Red Sox and the Yankees: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/sports/baseball/boston-red-sox-stealing-signs-yankees.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
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I'm unclear what that question means but I would note that Blake Swihart in August posted a .111/.184/.178/.361 line in 45 at-bats at Pawtucket. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=596119#/splits/R/hitting/2017/MINORS This Over the Monster column on Swihart appeared 31 months ago amid Cole Hamels trade speculation: https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/2/3/7972827/cole-hamels-trade-rumors-red-sox-blake-swihart-phillies
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I question whether Blake Swihart, with a projected wRC+ of about 76, has the bat to be an MLB designated hitter: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C Entering this season ZiPS projected Swihart with a wRC+ of 80 and the switch-hitting catcher did little this year to improve his standing. I attracted some heat on this forum last February when I offered comparisons of Swihart to Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Mike Zunino: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17652-Christian-Vazquez/page70?highlight=harmony
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To be precise, Andrew Benintendi was named the American League Rookie of the Month for August: http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALROM&year=2017 Baltimore infielder Manny Machado was the AL Player of the Month for August: http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALPOM&year=2017
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What is the trade value of only two arbitration years of Xander Bogaerts, who has posted a modest 2.3 fWAR (1.3 bWAR) this year while earning $4.5 million as the shortstop approaches his 25th birthday in October? This is not a case of the Red Sox sending six years each of Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.
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Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo weighs in: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/09/02/giancarlo-stanton-just-what-red-sox-need/ZIJg583tdSCRHLZJ7VAgaN/story.html Cafardo has a history of suggesting low-ball trade offers for elite players.
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The Red Sox outfield indeed has sizable leads in Defensive Runs Saved: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d ... and UZR/150: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d