harmony

Danny Espinosa, who is making his first start for Seattle today, provides an interesting comp for Eduardo Nunez in that Espinosa and Nunez are 30-year-old infielders who switched teams this week. The trends clearly favor Nunez, although Espinosa has posted 10.6 fWAR in 857 career games while Nunez has posted 3.3 fWAR in 631 career games: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9219&position=2B/SS http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6848&position=3B/SS . Espinosa has posted a negative 0.8 fWAR in 78 games this year while Nunez has posted 1.2 fWAR in 76 games. However, over the two previous seasons Espinosa had combined for 4.0 fWAR while Nunez had combined for 3.8 fWAR. The rest-of-season projections give Nunez a clear advantage. Espinosa has played only 16 career games at third base, where the Red Sox had their greatest need. Earlier this week Seattle signed Espinosa to a prorated league minimum of about $200,000 after the Los Angeles Angels released the veteran infielder. The Red Sox reportedly will pay Nunez the $1.56 million balance on his 2017 contract.

Robinson Cano gets the day off for Seattle:

In the August 31, 2016, trade for outfielder Ben Gamel, the Seattle Mariners dealt teenage righthanders Juan De Paula and Jio Orozco: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=depaul000jua https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=orozco000jio Gamel, the 2016 International League Most Valuable Player, started the 2017 season in the minors but has posted 2.0 fWAR in 78 games with the Mariners. Gamel's current .321/.373/.462/.835 line in 336 plate appearances is bolstered an outlying BABIP of .416. Last night a Seattle radio broadcaster noted that the absence of opponents' defensive shifts against Gamel, who sprays the ball to all fields, likely contributes to Gamel's unusually high BABIP. The Mariners are pleased with the performances of rookie outfielders Guillermo Heredia, Mitch Haniger and Gamel (along with veteran Jarrod Dyson) to the point that Leonys Martin, who posted 2.2 fWAR last year, remains in the minors.

Seattle righthander Andrew Moore, a 23-year-old rookie, posted quality starts in his first three MLB starts but has surrendered five earned runs in each of his last two starts: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=moorean02&t=p&year=2017 Today's matchup of the six-foot Moore and 6-foot-6 Red Sox ace Chris Sale reminds me of David and Goliath. I attended a Mariner game Sunday with a sportswriter who covered Andrew Moore three years ago when the pitcher was at Oregon State University. The sportswriter was unaware of Moore's rapid ascent to the majors (over the same period the sportswriter experienced a rapid ascent in sports journalism).

The Seattle Mariners are the zombies that keep returning from the dead. Ultimately Seattle's postseason hopes are likely to die but to date no one has hammered the nail in the coffin.

This year lefthanded hitters have posted a .172/.226/.207/.433 line in 62 plate appearances against James Paxton (although Jackie Bradley managed two of the four Red Sox hits last night).

Neal Cotts, a 37-year-old lefthander with a 4.04 ERA at Triple A this year, is no James Paxton. This year in his larger sample size at Double A Portland, Devers posted an OPS of .993 against righthanders and .793 against lefthanders (and then 1.075 and .958 in the smaller sample at Triple A Pawtucket).

Good for my fantasy team and for my favorite team.

When James Paxton is on, like he was last night, the lefthander would likely make Rafael Devers look foolish at the plate. The Red Sox probably made a wise decision is having Devers debut against righthander Felix Hernandez, who has been hittable this year, surrendering 69 hits in 62.2 innings this year. Lefthanded hitters have posted a .327/.374/.533/.907 line in 115 plate appearances against Hernandez this season.

Thank you. I forgot that.

Baseball America's midseason prospect rankings had Yankee infielder Gleyber Torress at No. 3 and Rafael Devers at No 6: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#JPJmDOuQYQi9Tvvm.97 This year Torres appeared in 32 games at Double A before his promotion to 23 games (and counting) at Triple A. Devers, who is a month or two older than Torres, appeared in 77 games at Double A and nine games at Triple A. In a perfect world each would get more seasoning at Triple A. However, the Red Sox have a pressing need for Devers while the Yankees have no specific current need for Torres (despite the recent injury to Starlin Castro). Each club has probably made the right decisions to date under contrasting circumstances.

Baseball America's midseason prospect rankings had Yankee infielder Gleyber Torress at No. 3 and Rafael Devers at No 6: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#JPJmDOuQYQi9Tvvm.97 This year Torres appeared in 32 games at Double A before his promotion to 23 games (and counting) at Triple A. Devers, who is a month or two older than Torres, appeared in 77 games at Double A and nine games at Triple A. In an ideal world each would get more seasoning at Triple A. However, the Red Sox have a current need for Devers while the Yankees have no specific current need for Torres (despite the recent injury to Starlin Castro). Each club has probably made the right decisions to date.

Mitch Moreland has an OPS+ of 99 in 3,135 career plate appearances, including an OPS+ of 96 in 373 plate appearances this year and an OPS+ of 88 in 503 plate appearances last year. Moreland's hot start in his first 61 games with the Red Sox was most likely the outlier.

Huh?

The minor league career slash lines for Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers: XB 1623 PA, .296/.373/.489/.862 RD 1714 PA, .296/.354/.482/.836 https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bogaer001xan https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=devers000raf

From FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan (a frequent critic of the Mariners): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-get-david-phelps-who-is-good/

Some Red Sox fans place too much trade value in a fringy prospect such as 23-year-old Sam Travis, who failed to make Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list, John Sickel's Top 200 prospect list, MLB Prospect Watch's Top 100 prospect list and Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 prospect list: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#jBgo67UVt7SXEGLj.97 https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/13/14598358/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-minor-league-ball http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#q6gMY15kpSV3sBXi.97 In January Travis reportedly landed at No. 98 on Keith Law's ESPN prospect list (which is hidden behind a pay wall).

If the roles were reversed, would the Red Sox trade four-plus years of righthander Heath Hembree to the San Francisco Giants for first base prospect Chris Shaw? Hembree and Strickland are same-sized 28-year-old righthanded relievers who come with four more years of team control. Since the start of the 2016 season Hembree has posted an ERA of 3.04 and an ERA+ of 147 in 81 appearances while Strickland has posted an ERA of 2.65 and an ERA+ of 153 in 111 appearances. Over that period Hembree has posted 0.9 fWAR while Strickland has posted 1.4 fWAR. Edge to Strickland. The irony is that the Giants drafted Hembree while the Red Sox drafted Strickland. Sam Travis and Chris Shaw are MLB Prospect Watch's eighth- and ninth-ranked first base prospects: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=1b This year as 23-year-olds in Triple A, Travis has posted a wRC+ of 109 in 186 plate appearances while Shaw has posted a wRC+ of 119 in 195 plate appearances. Travis makes more contact while Shaw has more power. The John Sickels scouting reports from last December: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/29/14119404/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2017 https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/20/14025292/san-francisco-giants-top-50-prospects-for-2017

Hunter Strickland is not a rental. The San Francisco Giants would demand more than a fringy prospect for four-plus years of an established reliever. FWIW, the Giants have one-time All Star first baseman Brandon Belt signed through 2021.

The Red Sox play their next six games in the Pacific Time Zone where the Sox are 1-3 this year after going 9-8 last year and 4-7 in 2015.

That's the point. The price goes up for an added year of team control.

I doubt a single prospect outside the Top 100 will be enough to land four-plus years of Hunter Strickland.

Hunter Strickland, who remains under team control for four arbitration seasons, will cost a bundle. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strichu01.shtml

The Red Sox have won 13 of 19 starts (68.4 percent) by Chris Sale this year, including both starts against the Blue Jays, each at Toronto.