harmony

Indeed penalties reset if the Red Sox make no expensive in-season additions.

No. It's a salary dump as the Red Sox strive to avoid escalating luxury tax penalties.

I recently traded for Chris Sale in fantasy baseball but I expect the lefthander to regress. Sale has already exceeded last year's fWAR.

Would anybody trade Rafael Devers and Pablo Sandoval to the Tigers for Nick Castellanos? I suspect Detroit would not because the Tigers have their own luxury tax concerns.

Indeed, on this forum in February I suggested that the Red Sox would be pleased if Blake Swihart's age 25 season matched the age 25 season of Mike Zunino in 2016 when Zunino started the year at Triple A: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17652-Christian-Vazquez/page73 Swihart and Zunino are former Baseball America 17th-ranked prospects who started their age 25 seasons at Triple A after stints as MLB starting catchers. Last year in his age 25 season Zunino posted a .286/.376/.521/.898 line (wRC+ 138) in 327 plate appearances at Triple A and a .207/.318/.470/.787 line in 192 plate appearances after his call-up to MLB. This year in his age 25 season Swihart has posted a .213/.265/.327/.592 line (wRC+ 61) in 163 plate appearances at Triple A. This year Zunino was Seattle's Opening Day catcher but was sent down after posting a .167/.250/.236/.486 line in 80 plate appearances over 24 games. Since his return on May 24 Zunino has posted a .254/.310/.577/.887 line in 142 plate appearances over 40 games. Zunino led all MLB hitters with 31 RBI in June* when he posted a .304/.371/.722/1.092 line in 89 plate appearances. Swihart's prospects would be brighter is he possessed Zunino's skills behind the plate. * Zunino has posted an ugly .087/.087/.217/.304 line in 23 plate appearances in July. Zunino is consistent behind the plate but among baseball's streakiest hitters at the plate.

Last November, in comparing Blake Swihart with Jarrod Saltalamacchia at a similar age, I wrote: "Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 should determine whether he has more, less or about the same trade value as Saltalamacchia had on July 31, 2010" when the Texas Rangers traded Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox for the humble package of Chris McGuiness, Roman Mendez, Michael Thomas and cash. http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17857-Swihart-To-Undergo-Ankle-Surgery/page6 SoxProspects never ranked McGuiness, Mendez or Thomas among the franchise's Top 20 prospects. I can't imagine that Swihart would command a greater return this month.

For what it's worth, the FanGraphs Cool Standings give the Astros a 32.1 percent change of winning the American League, the Guardians a 30.9 percent chance and the Red Sox a 21.3 percent chance: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Baseball America midseason prospect rankings: 5. Eloy Jimenez 6. Rafael Devers 83. Dylan Cease 87. Jason Groome 96. Michael Chavis http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#LhQHl9Z2feFdqerJ.97 I can't imagine the Red Sox could have landed Jose Quintana without trading Devers.

Blake Swihart's trade value might be similar to that of Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki, who is one year older than Swihart. Swihart has posted 0.6 bWAR in 103 MLB games while Plawecki has posted 0.8 bWAR in 131 MLB games. Each entered the 2017 season with five years of team control.

I question whether the Red Sox will trade low on Blake Swihart, a 25-year-old catcher with defensive questions and a .213/.265/.327/.592 slash line in 163 plate appearances this year at Triple A Pawtucket. What would the return be in a trade of Swihart?

On the old Boston Globe forum, a poster named softlaw started a separate thread to belittle me for suggesting in the 2012-13 offseason that Will Middlebrooks might need more time in the minors. Good times.

Trivia: Who were the last two Red Sox players to homer in an All Star game? Neither was a fan favorite in Boston.

That antiquated system of compensatory draft picks gave the Mariners only a single supplemental first-round draft pick when Adrian Beltre left the hitting-suppressed environment of Seattle for Boston. The Mariners used that pick to select righthander Taijuan Walker, who last offseason was flipped with Ketel Marte to Arizona for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis. To borrow Kimmi's words: So it's not all bad.

Thank you for posting that link. I was on the opposite side as a hardcore Minnesota Twins fan one week shy of my 12th birthday. The Twins had entered the two-game, season-ending series at Fenway Park one game up on the Red Sox. Carl Yastrzemski and Harmon Killebrew started the weekend tied with the American League home run lead with 43 apiece but Yaz was awarded the Triple Crown after each homered once, both in Saturday's game. A month earlier I had witnessed a wild Twins game in Bloomington, Minnesota, against the defending World Series champion Baltimore Orioles: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN196708310.shtml

And the Colorado Rockies, who have a better record than the Red Sox, aren't trading Nolan Arenado.

What would a team need to offer to land Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who like Nolan Arenado has two more years of team control? Since the start of last season Arenado has posted 10.3 bWAR and 8.1 fWAR while Bogaerts has posted 5.7 bWAR and 7.4 fWAR. I doubt the Red Sox would trade Bogaerts for the equivalent of Jackie Bradley, Rafael Devers and Tzu-Wei Lin. Arenado should command a more substantial package.

From the Los Angeles Times: http://articles.latimes.com/2008/sep/01/sports/sp-crowe1

Following his trade last week, Chris Sale made his debut for my fantasy team tonight.

I'm not Moon, but I offered this take on Blake Swihart earlier in this thread:

I wish I could agree. When David Price signed his seven-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox the lefthander was two years older than Pablo Sandoval was when the latter signed a five-year, $95 million contract. Now in his third year Sandoval has never come anywhere near Price's solid 4.5 fWAR performance in 2016 but the salary and duration of Price's deal, coupled with lingering injury concerns, may make his contract more detrimental ... or not.

I have Miguel Sano in my fantasy league where this week I traded the retainable contracts of Wil Myers, Sean Newcomb and Amed Rosario for a three-month rental of Chris Sale.

Last November, in comparing Blake Swihart with Jarrod Saltalamacchia at a similar age, I wrote: "Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 should determine whether he has more, less or about the same trade value as Saltalamacchia had on July 31, 2010" when the Texas Rangers traded Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox for the humble package of Chris McGuiness, Roman Mendez, Michael Thomas and cash. http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17857-Swihart-To-Undergo-Ankle-Surgery/page6 In February I questioned projections that had Seattle catcher Mike Zunino outproducing Swihart this year (although I suggested that the Red Sox would be pleased if Swihart's age 25 season matched the age 25 season of Zunino in 2016 when Zunino started the year at Triple A). http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17652-Christian-Vazquez/page73 I doubt the Red Sox will trade-low on Swihart so the Sox are unlikely to break up the catching trio of Swihart, Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon.

What players in the Red Sox organization have trade value, and how much trade value?

This year Rick Porcello has surrendered at least four runs in 10 of his 17 starts (at least four earned runs in nine of those starts). Last year Porcello surrendered at least four runs in only eight of 33 starts (at least four earned runs in only six of those 33 starts). The results were ERAs of 3.15 in 2016 and 5.06 so far this year while his per-game run support has fallen from 6.83 in 2016 to 4.06 so far this year.

I am a Mariner fan living in Oregon but I study the Red Sox the way someone studies a second language. I post at many baseball message boards, but frequently on Red Sox forums, starting in 2006.