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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    A team with a runner on second and no outs will average 1.0762 runs in that inning. A team with a runner on third and no outs will average 1.3045 runs in that inning. A team with no runners on and one out will average 0.2572 runs in that inning. Under those circumstances, the break-even point for stealing third base is an 81 percent success rate because the runner was already in scoring position. Rickey Henderson, baseball's all-time steals leader, had a career success rate of 80.8 percent. Fellow Hall of Famers Lou Brock and Tim Raines came in at 75.3 percent and 84.7 percent, respectively. The stats come from the chapter "Stolen Bases: Crime Only Pays If You Never Get Caught" in the 2017 book Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball by ESPN senior baseball writer Keith Law.
  2. harmony
    I was in attendance in 1980 when the Missouri Tigers knocked the Irish out of March Madness with an 87-84 second-round overtime win in Lincoln, Nebraska: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1980-03-09-missouri.html The game was filled with players who went on to NBA careers. In the other second-round game at Lincoln that day, eventual 1980 national champ Louisville also needed an overtime to topple Kansas State 71-69: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1980-03-09-kansas-state.html
  3. harmony
    Keith Law's condescending attitude gives sabermetrics a bad name. Law's pompousness obscures his otherwise valid data. I have a theory about the resistance to advanced baseball metrics, which often challenge conventional wisdom. For many of us, that conventional baseball wisdom was passed down to us by our fathers. Any challenge to that wisdom can be interpreted, at least subconsciously, as an insult to our father. Hence, the sometimes emotional reaction. At least that's my theory ... On the other hand, my father, who died in 1988, likely would have welcomed advanced baseball metrics because he remained interested in learning until the day he died.
  4. harmony
    I recommend the book Smart Baseball* by sanctimonious ESPN senior baseball writer Keith Law. https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062490223/smart-baseball This evening I read the chapter titled "Bulfinch's Baseball Mythology: Clutch Hitters, Lineup Protection, and Other Things That Don't Exist." * subtitled The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball
  5. harmony
    Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Blake Swihart with a rest-of-season wRC+ of 82, in line with their preseason projections for Swihart: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C A wRC+ of 82 might be adequate for a defensively competent catcher or a defensive ace at another position. I question whether Swihart is either.
  6. harmony
    http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/evan-drellich-gives-play-play-what-happened-boston-red-sox-david-price http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox
  7. harmony
    Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Chart project Blake Swihart with rest-of-season MLB wRC+ of 82 each. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C The ROS projections are in line with Swihart's preseason projections. ZiPS apparently has no ROS projection for Swihart. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Christian Vazquez with ROS wRC+ of 76, 80 and 78, and Sandy Leon with 73, 75 and 74. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C
  8. harmony
    What would be a reasonable extension for Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who has two years remaining before free agency, in light of the reported five-year, $70 million extension for Seattle shortstop Jean Segura, who would have had only one more season before free agency? Since the start of the 2016 season the 24-year-old Bogaerts has posted 6.9 fWAR and 5.1 bWAR in 209 games while the 27-year-old Segura has posted 6.4 fWAR and 6.8 bWAR in 196 games. In 2016 Segura played second base, which gets less WAR credit than shortstop. Segura, who led the National League with 203 hits last year, is currently on the disabled list for the second time this season. Would the Red Sox even consider an extension for Bogaerts with Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley as other extension candidates?
  9. harmony
    http://www.yourdictionary.com/re-aggravating ... and scroll down on this one: http://www.dictionary.com/browse/reaggravate
  10. harmony
    I sometimes sense that a certain poster is "on my ass" but I accept that as the price of my participation on a public forum. Best regards.
  11. harmony
    Fred Lynn was a nine-time All Star who won four Gold Gloves: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnfr01.shtml
  12. harmony
    It's means nothing, but Seattle has three rookie outfielders -- Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia -- who have posted higher fWAR than Andrew Benintendi this year (in fewer games): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Of course Yankee outfielder Aaron Judge leads the way among rookies.
  13. harmony
    One exception would be the 2003 Seattle Mariners whose five projected starters never missed a start. That year the M's won 93 games but fell short of a postseason berth: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml
  14. harmony
    The FanGraphs mock draft has the Red Sox taking University of Houston lefthander Seth Romero despite off-field issues: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-mock-draft/ http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/cougars/article/Issues-could-drop-UH-pitcher-Seth-Romero-out-of-11116406.php
  15. harmony
    I found the comparison interesting because of its oddness. I am reminded of a quote attributed (or misattributed) to George Orwell: Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed; everything else is public relations.
  16. harmony
    For what it's worth, I thought the comparison was odd.
  17. harmony
    ESPN columnist Buster Olney draws a comparison between Red Sox third base prospect Rafael Devers and one-time top prospect Jesus Montero: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/16792/olney-are-hitters-obsessed-with-launch-angle-helping-or-hurting-their-game Scroll down.
  18. harmony
    The Red Sox completed the Tyler Thornburg trade by sending 18-year-old infielder Yeison Coca, whom SoxProspects had ranked 37th on its prospect list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/brewers-red-sox-complete-thornburg-shaw-trade.html http://www.soxprospects.com/moreprospects.htm http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=coca--000yei&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
  19. harmony
    Robinson Cano has 287 career home runs (including 39 last year): http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml
  20. harmony
    With a win today the Red Sox will finally have a better cumulative record than the Seattle Mariners since the Sox won the World Series in 2013 (excluding Boston's three postseason losses in 2016). If the Mariners win ... This Seattle fan's expectations certainly have been significantly lowered with the injuries to James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Drew Smyly, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura and Robinson Cano. With this disastrous season I have doubts whether the Mariners will gain another postseason berth in my lifetime. But they're still my team.
  21. harmony
    Rob Whalen will become the 12th pitcher to make a start for the Seattle Mariners this young season. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2017-lineups.shtml http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article153020169.html The Mariners headed to Spring Training with a projected starting rotation of Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Hisashi Iwakuma, Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo but all except Gallardo are on the disabled list. The other four projected starters have combined for only 17 starts in the first 49 games. Eight Red Sox pitchers, including Brian Johnson, have made starts this year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2017-lineups.shtml
  22. harmony
    The Athletics have taken a 4-0 lead over the Yankees: MLB Gameday: Athletics 4, Yankees 1 Final Score (05/26/2017) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Athletics vs. Yankees at Yankee Stadium
  23. harmony
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/26/eduardo-rodriguez-success-reminiscent-jon-lester-early-years/JlOGIlz6cX7Sd6JStC3RKL/story.html
  24. harmony
    http://deadspin.com/the-mariners-are-a-big-sad-mess-1795529915 http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/5/26/15700956/mariners-at-red-sox-series-preview-may http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article152841469.html
  25. harmony
    The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals had worse records than the Oakland Athletics before and after last night's games (all three won): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2017-05-17
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