harmony

My friend in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reported two hours ago that he is bracing for Hurricane Irma. I hope everyone is OK.

I did not laugh when FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron revisited Jon Heyman later in today's chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-9617/ I am simply heartbroken by the devastating fire reportedly started by a 15-year-old in my beloved Columbia Gorge. Ashes continue to fly outside my window.

From today's FanGraphs chat with editor Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-9617/ The final line is snarky but I laughed anyway.

It's probably a combination of players overperforming last year and underperforming this year. It happens, although the almost across-the-board drop in production is unusual.

Some team had to be the pioneer in stealing signs by electronic means. Perhaps a team under great pressure to win ... perhaps not. I hope all allegations are thoroughly investigated and appropriate sanctions levied.

I don't know about putting the ball in play, but here are the Red Sox and American League splits for swinging at the first pitch vs. taking the first pitch: RS swing 1091 PA, .260/.284/.407/.692 RS take 4277 PA, .259/.344/.409/.753 AL swing 22148 PA, .274/.299/.464/.763 AL take 56561 PA, .249/.336/.415/.751 https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2017 https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2017 The Red Sox swung at 20.3 percent of the first pitches while the league swung at 28.1 percent of the first pitches.

MLB reportedly is investigating the Red Sox and the Yankees: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/sports/baseball/boston-red-sox-stealing-signs-yankees.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

I'm unclear what that question means but I would note that Blake Swihart in August posted a .111/.184/.178/.361 line in 45 at-bats at Pawtucket. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=596119#/splits/R/hitting/2017/MINORS This Over the Monster column on Swihart appeared 31 months ago amid Cole Hamels trade speculation: https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/2/3/7972827/cole-hamels-trade-rumors-red-sox-blake-swihart-phillies

I question whether Blake Swihart, with a projected wRC+ of about 76, has the bat to be an MLB designated hitter: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C Entering this season ZiPS projected Swihart with a wRC+ of 80 and the switch-hitting catcher did little this year to improve his standing. I attracted some heat on this forum last February when I offered comparisons of Swihart to Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Mike Zunino: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17652-Christian-Vazquez/page70?highlight=harmony

To be precise, Andrew Benintendi was named the American League Rookie of the Month for August: http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALROM&year=2017 Baltimore infielder Manny Machado was the AL Player of the Month for August: http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALPOM&year=2017

What is the trade value of only two arbitration years of Xander Bogaerts, who has posted a modest 2.3 fWAR (1.3 bWAR) this year while earning $4.5 million as the shortstop approaches his 25th birthday in October? This is not a case of the Red Sox sending six years each of Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.

Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo weighs in: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/09/02/giancarlo-stanton-just-what-red-sox-need/ZIJg583tdSCRHLZJ7VAgaN/story.html Cafardo has a history of suggesting low-ball trade offers for elite players.

The Red Sox outfield indeed has sizable leads in Defensive Runs Saved: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d ... and UZR/150: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d

From Beyond the Box Score: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/8/30/16218054/red-sox-power-slugging-playoffs-contact

Be safe, my friend. Meanwhile in the rainy Pacific Northwest, where I live, I have not witnessed measurable precipitation in 70+ days. I was out of state when Portland received barely measurable precipitation the weekend of August 12-13.

All but the rare reliever would be expected to go at least two or three innings. Most MLB pitchers were starters who converted to relief at some point in their life, most often in professional ball. Their development would no longer shrink their expected appearances to a single inning.

The current common setup of one-inning relievers carries risks as well. The one-inning reliever may be pulled without recording an out if he doesn't have his "stuff." Likewise, a long reliever under similar circumstances may be pulled without recording an out but that must be weighed against the greater potential benefit of three innings of relief.

I would not assume that a lesser pitcher would follow a better pitcher who starts the game. Two former "starters" may be paired together but the pitcher who opens a particular game may be determined by the match-ups. Of course, ideally the paired pitchers would have stark contrasts. An Eduardo Rodriguez could be paired with a Doug Fister, or a Steven Wright could be paired with just about anyone. The plan may pressure an opponent to adjust its lineup mid-game ... or not. A roster can be constrained by six to eight pitchers who typically pitch no more than one inning a game. I had written about the strategy before reading this related column: https://rainierscurto.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/everyone-is-a-long-reliever/

The need for multiple "short guys" would be reduced if the paired former starters could combine for seven or eight innings each game. A team with eight to 10 pitchers who expect to pitch three or four innings at a stint should reduce the number of pitchers needed to cover the fixed number of overall innings. The six most frequently used Red Sox relievers this year are essentially one-inning pitchers (except LOOGY Robby Scott): Kimbrel 52 G, 54 IP Barnes 59 G, 60 IP Hembree 54 G, 54 IP Kelly 41 G, 42.1 IP Scott 47 G, 30 IP Abad 36 G, 36 IP I question whether that's efficient use of roster space.

The trend may be to assemble eight to 10 pitchers formerly labeled as starters (plus depth behind them) to pitch stints or three or four innings before turning to ball over to the bullpen. The goal would be that no pitcher would go through the opponent's lineup more than twice. The model may be 4-3-1-1 innings. When he's on, a team would want an ace such as Chris Sale to go deep into a game. But statistics suggest that a mediocre pitcher going through a lineup for the first time is often more effective than a better pitcher going through the same lineup a third time. With shorter stints, a former "starting" pitcher and his partner could pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth day.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-errors-in-an-MLB-game

Perhaps we have different criteria on what constitutes a "proven" reliever. Approaching his 28th birthday in October, Carson Smith has barely one year of MLB experiences as the righthander recovers from Tommy John surgery. His work in 81 MLB innings taken as a whole is quite impressive although Smith was not without his struggles when he won, then 11 weeks later lost, the closer's role on a 2015 Seattle team that dropped 86 games. Smith relied heavily on his slider, which may or may not have contributed to his elbow injury. The Mariners certainly traded high on Smith, who may develop into the hoped-for setup stud ... or not. Ariel Miranda may been nothing more than a rich man's Roenis Elias, another Cuban lefthander who is less than one year older than Miranda. Last offseason Miranda was not a projected starter for the Mariners but with 25 starts this year has led a decimated Seattle staff that has used 37 pitchers, including 16 who have made starts. As a low-end starter with fly-ball tendencies, Miranda may be well-suited for Seattle with its superb defense covering an expansive outfield. Let's hope the Red Sox get three productive years from Smith and the Mariners get five more productive years from Miranda ... but I have my doubts on each count.

Ariel Miranda is not a nearly 28-year-old, limited-experience reliever coming off Tommy John surgery.

We all hope Carson Smith has a productive return but to date the Red Sox have received 0.0 fWAR from that trade while Wade Miley has posted 2.4 fWAR. Smith, who turns 28 in October, has pitched only 81 innings at the MLB level, leaving questions unanswered.