harmony

From Beyond the Box Score: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/8/30/16218054/red-sox-power-slugging-playoffs-contact

Be safe, my friend. Meanwhile in the rainy Pacific Northwest, where I live, I have not witnessed measurable precipitation in 70+ days. I was out of state when Portland received barely measurable precipitation the weekend of August 12-13.

All but the rare reliever would be expected to go at least two or three innings. Most MLB pitchers were starters who converted to relief at some point in their life, most often in professional ball. Their development would no longer shrink their expected appearances to a single inning.

The current common setup of one-inning relievers carries risks as well. The one-inning reliever may be pulled without recording an out if he doesn't have his "stuff." Likewise, a long reliever under similar circumstances may be pulled without recording an out but that must be weighed against the greater potential benefit of three innings of relief.

I would not assume that a lesser pitcher would follow a better pitcher who starts the game. Two former "starters" may be paired together but the pitcher who opens a particular game may be determined by the match-ups. Of course, ideally the paired pitchers would have stark contrasts. An Eduardo Rodriguez could be paired with a Doug Fister, or a Steven Wright could be paired with just about anyone. The plan may pressure an opponent to adjust its lineup mid-game ... or not. A roster can be constrained by six to eight pitchers who typically pitch no more than one inning a game. I had written about the strategy before reading this related column: https://rainierscurto.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/everyone-is-a-long-reliever/

The need for multiple "short guys" would be reduced if the paired former starters could combine for seven or eight innings each game. A team with eight to 10 pitchers who expect to pitch three or four innings at a stint should reduce the number of pitchers needed to cover the fixed number of overall innings. The six most frequently used Red Sox relievers this year are essentially one-inning pitchers (except LOOGY Robby Scott): Kimbrel 52 G, 54 IP Barnes 59 G, 60 IP Hembree 54 G, 54 IP Kelly 41 G, 42.1 IP Scott 47 G, 30 IP Abad 36 G, 36 IP I question whether that's efficient use of roster space.

The trend may be to assemble eight to 10 pitchers formerly labeled as starters (plus depth behind them) to pitch stints or three or four innings before turning to ball over to the bullpen. The goal would be that no pitcher would go through the opponent's lineup more than twice. The model may be 4-3-1-1 innings. When he's on, a team would want an ace such as Chris Sale to go deep into a game. But statistics suggest that a mediocre pitcher going through a lineup for the first time is often more effective than a better pitcher going through the same lineup a third time. With shorter stints, a former "starting" pitcher and his partner could pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth day.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-errors-in-an-MLB-game

Perhaps we have different criteria on what constitutes a "proven" reliever. Approaching his 28th birthday in October, Carson Smith has barely one year of MLB experiences as the righthander recovers from Tommy John surgery. His work in 81 MLB innings taken as a whole is quite impressive although Smith was not without his struggles when he won, then 11 weeks later lost, the closer's role on a 2015 Seattle team that dropped 86 games. Smith relied heavily on his slider, which may or may not have contributed to his elbow injury. The Mariners certainly traded high on Smith, who may develop into the hoped-for setup stud ... or not. Ariel Miranda may been nothing more than a rich man's Roenis Elias, another Cuban lefthander who is less than one year older than Miranda. Last offseason Miranda was not a projected starter for the Mariners but with 25 starts this year has led a decimated Seattle staff that has used 37 pitchers, including 16 who have made starts. As a low-end starter with fly-ball tendencies, Miranda may be well-suited for Seattle with its superb defense covering an expansive outfield. Let's hope the Red Sox get three productive years from Smith and the Mariners get five more productive years from Miranda ... but I have my doubts on each count.

Ariel Miranda is not a nearly 28-year-old, limited-experience reliever coming off Tommy John surgery.

We all hope Carson Smith has a productive return but to date the Red Sox have received 0.0 fWAR from that trade while Wade Miley has posted 2.4 fWAR. Smith, who turns 28 in October, has pitched only 81 innings at the MLB level, leaving questions unanswered.

Today an Over the Monster column examined the "Nick Punto trade" five years later: https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/8/25/16200096/red-sox-dodgers-trade-adrian-gonzalez-carl-crawford-josh-beckett-de-la-rosa-Webster I was initially confused when I read that the Red Sox turned Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa into Carson Smith and Roenis Elias. Then the connection dawned on me: the Sox traded Webster and De La Rosa for Wade Miley whom they later traded with Jonathan Aro for Smith and Elias. Using the same logic, Seattle turned Carson Smith and Jonathan Aro* into Ariel Miranda when the Mariners traded Miley for Miranda near the trade deadline in 2016. Which got me thinking about what has more trade value: three arbitration years of nearly 28-year-old rehabbing reliever Carson Smith or five years of 28-year-old lefthander Ariel Miranda, a low-end starter who has posted an ERA of 4.78 in 25 starts this season. A healthy Smith would seem to have the edge but the years of team control lean in Miranda's favor. Thoughts? * BTW, the nearly 27-year-old Aro has not appeared at the MLB level this year, posting an ERA of 3.44, a WHIP of 1.09 and a K/BB of 3.91 in 21 appearances at Triple A Tacoma: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=aro---000jon

Here is one measure: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Carson Smith was impressive two years ago when the righthander won, then lost, the closer's role on Seattle team that lost 86 games.

Peace be with you, my friend.

When the Red Sox signed Dustin Pedroia and Rick Porcello to in-season extensions with signing bonuses, the bonuses were spread over the length of the contract, not against that season's earnings. For luxury tax purposes, Segura's contract counts $14 million annually for the five years, including the signing bonus and the buyout of the sixth-year option. Xander Bogaerts was among three shortstops critiqued Tuesday by FanGraphs columnist Tony Blengino: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-struggles-of-three-shortstops/

To be precise, Seattle did not buy out 2017 when Jean Segura retains his salary of $6.2 million. The five-year, $70 million extension covers 2018 to 2022 (with the team option for 2023).

In June of this year Seattle shortstop Jean Segura signed a five-year, $70 million extension through the 2022 season with the Mariners buying out his final year of arbitration. Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts has two more arbitration years before entering free agency following the 2019 season. This year the 27-year-old Segura has posted 2.2 fWAR in 89 games while the nearly 25-year-old Bogaerts has posted 1.8 fWAR in 107 games: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Since the start of the 2016 season Segura has posted 7.2 fWAR in 242 games while Bogaerts has posted 6.6 fWAR in 264 games: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 How much will agent Scott Boras be asking on behalf of Bogaerts?

Trivia: The Miami Marlin outfield this year has posted 10.3 fWAR, third best in the majors, while the Red Sox outfield has posted 7.7 fWAR, eighth best in the majors: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Carson Smith's fastball averaged 92.9 mph in his breakout 2015 season: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P#pitchtype ... and for his career.

Probably of interest only to this Seattle fan, but Red Sox reliever Carson Smith and Mariner reliever Shae Simmons appear to be on parallel tracks: righthanded relievers, born less than a year apart, each with three more years of team control, back in action in the minors after Tommy John surgery. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605476#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2017/MINORS http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=623406#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2017/MINORS https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/2/16/14621942/40-in-40-shae-simmons Of course the 6-foot-6 Smith towers over the 5-foot-11 Simmons. I hope each has a successful return.

I'm wondering whether Matt Kory will join Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan and Rob Neyer for the EclipseFest at a short-season Class A game in Keizer, Oregon, on August 21: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-and-effectively-wild-are-going-to-eclipsefest/ I'll be there. Sullivan and Neyer live in my town as well; Cameron lives in my state.

The best American League records since May 28: Houston - 37-25 Seattle - 37-27 Cleveland - 36-27 Boston - 37-28 Kansas City - 36-28 It's hard to count any of those teams out ... yet.