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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Seattle also has team control next season over rightfielders Victor Robles and Luke Raley. Raley and Dominic Canzone are somewhat redundant as late-blooming, lefthand-batting power hitters out of Ohio. The Mariners may trade one this offseason, perhaps Raley, who is three years older than Canzone, who slugged three homers among his five hits Tuesday. Last offseason the Mariners were in no position to trade starting pitching and are in an even more dire position today. The health of the Seattle pitching staff has improved in the second half but the Mariners still rank 11th in the league with an ERA+ of 96 (the M's are second in OPS+ at 112).
  2. harmony
    Rafaela has an impressive full name: Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rafael001ced
  3. harmony
    Many, if not most, MLB teams have used at least 30 pitchers this year, excluding position players who made mound appearances.
  4. harmony
    Seattle was 1-6 on an East Coast road trip before a 10-2 victory in Atlanta ignited the current nine-game win streak.
  5. harmony
    According to Spotrac, this season the Red Sox rank fifth among the 30 MLB teams in total days missed to injuries: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/injured/_/year/2025/view/team
  6. harmony
    So far this season the Red Sox rank fifth in days missed to injury: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/injured/_/year/2025/view/team
  7. harmony
    According to FanGraphs, Seattle's strength of remaining schedule ranks the third-easiest among the 15 American League teams: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds However, anything can happen.
  8. harmony
    Masataka Yoshida pinch-hit for leadoff hitter Romy Gonzalez in the ninth inning of an August 22 game against the Yankees: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA202508220.shtml Yoshida pinch-hit for leadoff hitter Rob Refsnyder on July 20, 2024, in the 11th inning of a game against the Dodgers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN202407200.shtml
  9. harmony
    Does that suggest that Franklin Arias does not belong on the list?😉
  10. harmony
    From the column: (Note: Players promoted to the major leagues before Sept. 1 were not eligible for this list.) Payton Tolle was called up on August 29. Seattle catching prospect Harry Ford, who was called up on September 1, landed at No. 37 on Jim Bowden's list.
  11. harmony
    Columnist Jim Bowden at The Athletic ranked Franklin Arias No. 32 on his Top 50 prospect list: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6587372/2025/09/03/top-mlb-prospects-rankings-griffin-wetherholt-mcgonigle/ Subscription required. Arias was the only Red Sox farmhand on the list.
  12. harmony
    Are the Red Sox good enough? Probably. But are we fans good enough? Is that even important?
  13. harmony
    This year this poster has seen the Red Sox more often (twice) than his Seattle Mariners. However, I'll likely miss the Red Sox in 2026 because I'll be in Europe when the Sox visit Seattle in June.
  14. harmony
    FWIW 29-year-old Kody Clemens has a career OPS+ of 79 and 0.5 bWAR in 237 career games, including an OPS+ of 93 and 0.5 bWAR in 91 games this season: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemeko01.shtml Clemens is likely to be Super Two arbitration eligible this offseason.
  15. harmony
    James Paxton finished second in innings pitched on the 2017 Seattle Mariners, trailing only the immortal ... Ariel Miranda! https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2017&season=2017&qual=0&team=11&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
  16. harmony
    Thank you for the cherry-picked stat. Baseball Reference provides a fuller picture under Clutch Stats and Leverage: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=duranja01&year=2025&t=b Scroll down.
  17. harmony
    FWIW Jarren Duran apparently can curse in the clutch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAetR1FjSKI
  18. harmony
    The Mariners are clinging to the final Wild Card slot after going 2-7 on a tough, tough road trip to play the Orioles, Mets and Phillies. The remaining schedule might favor the Mariners: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  19. harmony
    Yophery Rodriguez, John Holobetz or Marcus Phillips could be the Auntie Gertie who beat the odds. But the probabilities are stacked against them ... even in the aggregate. Lost in this conversation are Quinn Priester's potential future WAR. Even before his breakout this year, ZiPS had projected Priester with 1.4, 1.5 and 1.5 WAR in fewer than 120 innings each in 2025, 2026 and 2027. Priester, who has tosssed 124 innings this year, remains under team control for four more seasons. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/quinn-priester/25977/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections
  20. harmony
    https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers Those who understand probability tend to exploit those who don't. The casino owner won't sell its business because Auntie Gertie won $113,000 on its slot machines.
  21. harmony
    What is the source of the 17 and 16 percent chances? The 18 percent chance for a No. 33 draft pick is for a positive career bWAR, not a single-season bWAR. SoxProspects currently ranks Yophery Rodriguez and John Holobetz outside the Top 30 in a Boston farm system that has lost its luster. Their chances of posting a 1.0 WAR season are far, far lower than 17 and 16 percent. You can't win the lottery without buying a ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.
  22. harmony
    Marcus Phillips was the No. 33 draft pick after being projected at No. 61 by MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-draft-day-1-complete-coverage Of the 61 No, 33 draft picks since 1965, only 11 (18%) posted a positive career bWAR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=33&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_hs=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_jc=0&from_type_4y=0 Fourteen posted a negative career bWAR, two posted 0.0 bWAR, and 34 (55.7%) had not made it to the majors (including Phillips and three others drafted since 2019), We all hope Marcus Phillips has a productive MLB career but the odds are stacked heavily against him.
  23. harmony
    1.0 WAR is a high bar for prospects ranked far outside the Top 100 in baseball. https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers Three lottery tickets have a higher aggregate chance than a single lottery ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.
  24. harmony
    What percentage of Red Sox prospects ranked 30 or below have ever played an MLB inning? What percentage of those ranked below the Top 10? The numbers are low despite an occasional outlier.
  25. harmony
    What are the odds that Yophery Rodriguez, John Holobetz or Marcus Phillips ever plays an inning at the Major League level? What are the chances that any match the production of Quinn Priester's 2025 season? SoxProspects currently ranks the trio 34th, 31st and 14th in a Boston farm system that has fallen out of the Top 10 at MLB Pipeline: https://soxprospects.com/ https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-midseason The Milwaukee Brewers are unlikely to regret the trade .... ever.
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