harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Nathaniel Lowe can refuse an assignment to the minors after exceeding the five years of MLB service earlier this season. The Baseball Reference number was as of January 2025. The Nats will likely place Lowe on waivers and a team that selects Lowe off waivers will be responsible for the remainder of Lowe’s 2025 salary. If he clears waivers Lowe becomes a free agent who can sign for the prorated league minimum (with the Nationals on the hook for the balance of his 2025 salary).
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FWIW ZiPS projects Abraham Toro with a 91 wRC+ and 0.1 WAR in 26 games the rest of the season while projecting Nathaniel Lowe with a 106 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 39 games. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/abraham-toro/19844/stats?position=2B/3B#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathaniel-lowe/19566/stats?position=1B#dashboard
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The Seattle Mariners have experienced a revolving door at second base as well. Over that 2018-2025 period, Dee Strange-Gordon with 778 plate appearances was the only Mariner second baseman with more than 550 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&team=11&season1=2018&season=2025&type=8&month=37&sortcol=3&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Strange-Gordon's wRC+ of 77 and 0.8 fWAR were not assets. The Mariners hope to have a long-term solution at second base in barely 22-year-old Cole Young, a graduated Top 50 prospect and former first-round draft pick whose 1.2 bWAR in 54 games this year works out to a pace of 3.5 bWAR over 162 games.
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Since Robinson Cano had 646 plate appearances for the Mariners in 2017, the most plate appearances by a Seattle second baseman in a single season came from Adam Frazier with 460 in 2022 (and Dee Strange-Gordon with 410 in 2019).
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Before tossing four innings Monday, Garrett Crochet had already reached a career high of 148.1 innings in a single season.
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Go Red Sox! Get within a half game of the idle Mariners in the Wild Card race (although with a Boston win Seattle would move into a tie for the AL West lead).
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The article transposes the stats for Carlos Narvaez and Connor Wong since the All Star Break. Narvaez had the unusual negative 2 wRC+.
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-math-behind-the-extra-innings-home-field-disadvantage/
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The Red Sox need the defense of Carlos Narvaez but the rookie catcher has posted a negative 2 wRC+ in 12 games (48 plate appearances) since the All Star break. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&type=8&season=2025&season1=2025&ind=0&stats=bat&qual=0&month=1000&team=3&pos=c&startdate=2025-07-16&enddate=2025-10-01 wRC+ is scaled to an average of 100; a negative wRC+ is rare.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the projections of an established system and to the bald opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.😃 -
Would David Hamilton's current negative 0.4 fWAR been an upgrade for Seattle? The Mariners entered the 2025 with Keith Law's top-ranked farm system that was filled with middle infielders, including Cole Young, who in his first 50 MLB games has prodcued at a 3.2 bWAR pace over 162 games. The M's had no shortage of "fulltime 2b" candidates.
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Entering the season Seattle handed second base to Ryan Bliss, who suffered a season-ending injury on April 8. Bliss was to keep the seat warm for second baseman Cole Young, who since his May 31 call-up has posted 1,.0 bWAR (a 3.2 bWAR pace over 162 games). Young, who just turned 22 years old, has produced what the Red Sox had hoped for from Marcelo Mayer, a fellow former first-round draft pick who is seven months older than Young.
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As mentioned in the offseason, Seattle would have little interest in David Hamilton when the Mariners had Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore under a guaranteed $3.6 million contract for 2025. Last year Hamilton posted 1.7 fWAR and 2.6 bWAR (with 33 stolen bases) in 98 games while Moore posted 2.4 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR (with 32 stolen bases) in 135 games. Lacking starting pitching depth, the Mariners weren't trading an established starter who rarely misses a start (2025 ERA of 3.22) for a redundant utility player. The Seattle and Boston media never reported an offer of Castillo for Hamilton ... almost certainly because the offer was never made. Reports were that the Red Sox declined an offer of Castillo for Triston Casas and that the Mariners turned down an offer of Casas and Masataka Yoshida for Castillo.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
As of Wednesday morning, Baseball Reference gave the Red Sox the second-best odds of winning the World Series (behind only the Milwaukee Brewers): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml FanGraphs was less bullish on the Red Sox: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/mlb -
From Jim Bowden's analysis at The Athletic: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6534077/2025/08/04/mlb-trade-deadline-highlights-lowlights-2025/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=1096049&source=dailyemail Subscription required.
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This retired journalist-turned-attorney takes offense.😁
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Thank you for the needed analysis. Neil Postman was indeed prescient.
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A headline at The Athletic: The Astros — bold, decisive, interesting — are the team the Red Sox used to be https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6531333/2025/08/01/red-sox-houston-astros-trade-deadline/ Subscription required. A snippet:
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For all we know, the Red Sox may have offered all of those players, including Jhostynoxn Garcia and Payton Tolle.
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If the package of Franklin Arias, Jhostynxon Garcia and Payton Tolle was not enough, subbing Connelly Early for Tolle and adding Kristian Campbell would be unlikely to get the job done. The frugal Minnesota Twins would likely shy away from the guaranteed $59 million owed Campbell.
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Quantity won't compensate for the lack of high-end prospect quality. A higher-tier prospect or two would be needed to land a higher-tier starting pitcher.
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- 2025 trade deadline
- dustin may
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The Red Sox are pretty much stuck with the roster that went 17-7 in July.
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Steven Matz and Dustin May were under-the-radar trade candidates but the Red Sox probably needed more.
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The 2025 post-Rafael Devers Red Sox are emitting a 2004 post-Nomar Garciaparra vibe.
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The San Diego Padres reportedly have shown interest in lefthand-hitting outfielders Jarren Duran and Steven Kwan, who provide interesting comps. Duran is a year older than Kwan (they share a September 5 birthday) but Duran has three more years of team control working off his 2025 salary of $3.85 million while Kwan has only two more years of team control working off his 2025 salary of $4.18 million. Duran has posted 13.0 bWAR and 11.3 fWAR in 460 career games, including 3.0 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 107 games this year. Kwan has posted 16.0 bWAR and 14.6 fWAR in 528 career games, including 3.1 bWAR and 2.7 fWAR in 101 game this year. Duran has a career OPS+ of 114, including has a career an OPS+ of 114 this year, while Kwan has a career OPS+ of 114, including an OPS+ of 110 this year. Duran was an All Star in 2024 while Kwan is a two-time All Star who won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons. Baseball Trade Values assigns Duran a surplus value of $55.4 million and Kwan a surplus value of $52.4 million. Which player is a more attractive option for the Padres?
