harmony

After Jordan Hicks intentionally walked Max Kepler to load the bases with no outs in the bottom of the 10th, Philadelphia had a win probability of 93.1 percent: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-phillies/2025/07/21/777063/final/summary/all Nevertheless, the walkoff ending was bizarre.

FWIW entering the season FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 56.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2025-03-17&dateDelta= Monday evening FanGraphs gaves the Sox a 44.4 chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Even productive MLB hitters will occasionally don the Golden Sombrero worn Monday evening by Roman Anthony.

Interesting analysis: https://pebblehunting.substack.com/p/the-swing-paradox

At the All Star break the Red Sox were one game up on the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race (but even in the loss column); https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-16&dateDelta= The daunting post-break schedule had the Sox facing the three NL division leaders in the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mariners faced a tough post-break schedule with the AL West-leading Houston Astros and the Milwaukee Brewers, who have now tied the Cubs for the NL Central lead. The Red Sox and the Mariners are in a virtual tie for the fifth and sixth Wild Card slots after the Sox lost two of three to the Cubs and the Mariners won two of three against the Astros. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-20&dateDelta= The remainder of the season should be interesting.

Are these Cubs podcasters realistic in their trade proposals? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dwHU7tMgac 🙂

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

Cleveland would be reluctant to take on Kristian Campbell's guaranteed salary of nearly $60 million, including $20 million in 2032 (including a $4 million buyout of a 2033 team option). https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/84877/kristian-campbell Will Campbell still be in baseball in 2032? The valuations at Baseball Trade Values are volatile and Campbell's valuation may be headed downward given his struggles this year at Triple A.

By wRC+, Rafael Devers ranked 19th among qualified hitters in 2024, 31st in 2023, 18th in 2022 and 26th in 2021. Cumulatively over those four seasons, Devers ranked 22nd among qualified hitters in wRC+. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&startdate=&enddate=&pageitems=30&season1=2021&season=2024 After entering the league in 2017, Devers never finished in the Top 10 in voting for American League most valuable player.

The Minnesota Twins reportedly are not discussing Joe Ryan in trade talks: https://fansided.com/mlb/mlb-all-star-weekend-rumors-joe-ryan-trade-misiorowski-extension-braves-latest

Seattle infielder Cole Young provides an interesting comp with Boston infielder Marcelo Mayer, who is seven months older than Young. Mayer was the No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft one year before Young was the No. 21 pick in the 2022 draft. Each was drafted as a shortstop but made his MLB debut this year elsewhere in the infield. This season Mayer has posted an 86 OPS+ and 81 wRC+ in 124 plate appearances while posting 0.3 bWAR and 0.5 fWAR in 40 games. Young has posted a 92 OPS+ and 88 wRC+ in 129 plate appearances while posting 0.8 bWAR and 0.1 fWAR in 35 games. FanGraphs projects Mayer with an 84 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR in 47 remaining games while projecting Young with a 96 wRC+ and 0.6 WAR in 48 remaining games. Entering this year, ZiPS projected Mayer with 1.1 WAR in 87 games in 2025, 1.2 WAR in 92 games in 2026 and 1.5 WAR in 96 games in 2027. ZiPS projected Young with 2.1 WAR in 134 games in 2025, 2.3 WAR in 138 games in 2026 and 2.7 in 141 games in 2027. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats?position=3B https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cole-young/31680/stats?position=2B Despite the similarities, Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Mayer a surplus value of $54.6 million and Young a surplus value of $26.6 million.

Odds that never change would be odd indeed. FanGraphs projects only the probability of an outcome. Is a team with a 7-2 record more likely to finish with an 8-2 record than a team with a 4-2 record? Have the intervening three wins changed the probability of achieving an 8-2 record?

Those who understand probabilities exploit those who don't.

How many of these 49 baseball metrics are "GUESSES ALSO KNOWN AS ESTIMATES" in comparison to the official scorer's subjective calls on errors? https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats

The Red Sox and Cardinals are similarly situated as storied franchises currently in Wild Card races coming off multiple down seasons. The Cardinals are unlikely to sell Ryan Helsley.

Baseball Reference now gives the Red Sox a 54 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while giving the Seattle Mariners a 52.1 percent chance: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2025.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2025.shtml FanGraphs has the Red Sox at 44.4 percent and the Mariners at 61.6 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

FWIW this year Jarren Duran ranks 89th among all qualified hitters in fWAR as he approaches his 29th birthday in September.

After the three-game series at Yankee Stadium, Seattle travels to Detroit to take on the league's best team. It's a brutal road trip for the Mariners before the All Star Break.

FanGraphs gives the 48-45 Red Sox a 33.6 percent of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds After 93 games last year the Red Sox were 51-42 with a 47.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2024-07-11&dateDelta=

Baseball Trade Values assigns the package of Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer a combined surplus value of $173.7 million, just shy of Cal Raleigh's assigned surplus value of $179.3 million. That's big!😀 Last October BTV undervalued Raleigh at $19.8 million; today's value may have overcompensated. Or not.

The Seattle Mariners have averaged 88+ wins over Cal Raleigh's first four seasons and currently hold down a Wild Card slot. FanGraphs gives the Mariners a 72.4 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while Baseball Reference lists their chances at 67.6 percent. The Red Sox chances are 31.1 percent and 43.3 percent. What could the Red Sox offer in exchange for the Mariner cornerstone, whom Baseball Trade Values currently assigns a surplus value of $179.3 million? Why would the Mariners want prospects in the middle of a race for the postseason appearance? FWIW Seattle entered the season with Keith Law's top-ranked farm system at The Athletic. After just signing a six-year extension, would Raleigh, despite some family roots in New England, waive his no-trade clause to join a struggling franchise seeking a return to relevance?

The Red Sox are only two games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final Wild Card slot.

Baseball Trade Values assigns Aroldis Chapman a surplus value of $2.2 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=aroldis&page=1 Is that value too low, too high or about right?

The provided stats are outdated on Mick Abel, who has surrendered nine earned runs over his last 4.2 innings to raise his season ERA to 5.04 (with a FIP of 6.25 and a negative 0.3 fWAR)). Abel's MLB debut comes on the heels of four somewhat disappointing minor league seasons. The left-hander has a ways to go before becoming part of the "best one-two punch in the American League."

How does any team decline an $8 million option on Freddy Peralta, a barely 29-year-old right-hander who has posted a 3.57 ERA since the start of the 2023 season while ranking 11th among all pitchers in starts? Over those two-and-a-half seasons, Peralta has posted 6.9 fWAR valued at $55 million.