harmony

From Jim Bowden's analysis at The Athletic: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6534077/2025/08/04/mlb-trade-deadline-highlights-lowlights-2025/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=1096049&source=dailyemail Subscription required.

This retired journalist-turned-attorney takes offense.😁

Thank you for the needed analysis. Neil Postman was indeed prescient.

A headline at The Athletic: The Astros — bold, decisive, interesting — are the team the Red Sox used to be https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6531333/2025/08/01/red-sox-houston-astros-trade-deadline/ Subscription required. A snippet:

For all we know, the Red Sox may have offered all of those players, including Jhostynoxn Garcia and Payton Tolle.

If the package of Franklin Arias, Jhostynxon Garcia and Payton Tolle was not enough, subbing Connelly Early for Tolle and adding Kristian Campbell would be unlikely to get the job done. The frugal Minnesota Twins would likely shy away from the guaranteed $59 million owed Campbell.

Quantity won't compensate for the lack of high-end prospect quality. A higher-tier prospect or two would be needed to land a higher-tier starting pitcher.

The Red Sox are pretty much stuck with the roster that went 17-7 in July.

Steven Matz and Dustin May were under-the-radar trade candidates but the Red Sox probably needed more.

The 2025 post-Rafael Devers Red Sox are emitting a 2004 post-Nomar Garciaparra vibe.

The San Diego Padres reportedly have shown interest in lefthand-hitting outfielders Jarren Duran and Steven Kwan, who provide interesting comps. Duran is a year older than Kwan (they share a September 5 birthday) but Duran has three more years of team control working off his 2025 salary of $3.85 million while Kwan has only two more years of team control working off his 2025 salary of $4.18 million. Duran has posted 13.0 bWAR and 11.3 fWAR in 460 career games, including 3.0 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 107 games this year. Kwan has posted 16.0 bWAR and 14.6 fWAR in 528 career games, including 3.1 bWAR and 2.7 fWAR in 101 game this year. Duran has a career OPS+ of 114, including has a career an OPS+ of 114 this year, while Kwan has a career OPS+ of 114, including an OPS+ of 110 this year. Duran was an All Star in 2024 while Kwan is a two-time All Star who won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons. Baseball Trade Values assigns Duran a surplus value of $55.4 million and Kwan a surplus value of $52.4 million. Which player is a more attractive option for the Padres?

San Diego currently holds a Wild Card slot with a better record and better postseason odds than the Red Sox. The Padres are highly unlikely to trade a top starter for prospects -- such as Jhostynxon Garcia or James Tibbs III -- who are unlikely to contribute this season. Given their current place in the standings, would the Red Sox trade a rental such as Aroldis Chapman for only a prospect?

David Hamilton? That's news. https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-deepened-rotation-with-crochet-and-buehler?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/12/red-sox-wanted-to-package-triston-casas-high-paid-veteran-in-trade-for-pitching-report.html https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/12/27/red-sox-triston-casas-masataka-yoshida-mariners-trade-luis-castillo/

During the offseason a Red Sox podcaster lambasted the Seattle Mariners for reportedly not taking on Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida in exchange for right-hander Luis Castillo, who this season has posted a 3.19 ERA in 22 starts. Even so, Baseball Trade Values assigns Castillo a negative value of $10.6 million while listing Yoshida at a negative $32.8 million and Casas at 0.

Every American baseball fan should experience a baseball game in Japan. This spring I attended home games of the reigning Korean champion LG Twins and the reigning Japanese Series champion Yokohama DeNA BayStars. On a Sunday in Seoul, my wife, her sister and I had a guided tour that ended at 12:30 pm and another tour that started at 6:30 pm. I had my eye on the 2 pm game between the Twins and the Lotte Giants at Jamsil Stadium on the other end of the metropolis. I caught the subway, missed the right stop and walked about a mile and a half to Olympic Boulevard, which led to the stadium. The boulevard was lined with fans, many wearing attire of the Twins and Giants. Arriving at a stadium I was surprised that the ticket office was open for what I thought was a sold-out game. I bought my ticket and entered an enclosed concourse, which I thought was a bit unusual. I poked my head into the portal to the seats to learn that I was at a Korean Basketball League game. I immediately left and walked five more blocks to the sold-out baseball stadium. The language barrier made negotiations with the scruffy scalpers difficult. I somehow negotiated a price from 30,000 won up to 40,000 won (the difference between about $21 and $28). Ticket scalping is illegal in Korea and I had read reports of a scalped ticket not being accepted at the gate. Nevertheless I gained entry to the most electric baseball atmosphere I had ever experienced. Fans were standing, singing and chanting on every pitch. A few weeks later I attended a game in Yokohama with my wife, her sister and our guide who had secured advance tickets. The atmosphere was again electric. My embarrassing missteps did not spoil my adventuresome first trip Asia.

Baseball Reference gives the Red Sox a 61.9 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml ... while FanGraphs lists the Sox chances at 46.6 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds The Red Sox are in a precarious position but are unlikely sellers.

Just as Jarren Duran is NOT as good as he was last year with 8.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 131. Duran has posted 12.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 112 in five MLB seasons, including 2.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 107 this year. Ryan has posted 11.0 bWAR and an ERA+ of 114 in five MLB seasons, including 4.5 bWAR and an ERA+ of 161 this year. Ryan, who is three months older than Duran, remains under team control for two more seasons working off his 2025 salary of $3 millon, while Duran remains under team control for three more seasons working off his 2025 salary of $3.85 million (with an $8 million team option for 2026).

??? Today Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax and Christian Vazquez had a combined value of $97.5 million. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=vazquez Jarren Duran was listed at $47.3 million, Jhostynxon Garcia at $12.9 million, Franklin Arias at $22.1 million and Payton Tolle at $20 million, for a total of $103.3 million. That's close. A presumptive contending team tends to overpay at the trade deadline.

Think again: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/71630-should-derek-falvey-be-trusted-to-make-trade-decisions-on-griffin-jax-jhoan-duran-and-joe-ryan/#findComment-1542127

Baseball Trade Values provides values in a vacuum. A contending team will likely overpay for a worthwhile starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Businesses often overpay in an attempt to achieve a desire goal. Baseball is no different.

Jamie Moyer to Seattle for Darren Bragg at the 1996 trade deadline? Moyer posted 34.2 bWAR in 11 seasons with the Mariners while Bragg posted 6.2 bWAR in three seasons with the Red Sox.

Indeed, Stanford's Nico Hoerner was the No. 24 pick and Kris Bubic the No., 40 pick. This poster never saw Bubic pitch in college but in 2016 saw Hoerner and Tommy Edman in the Stanford middle infield: https://gostanford.com/boxscore/1452

In May this Kris Bubic fan witnessed the left-hander's seven-inning, shutout gem in San Francisco: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/box The Kansas City Royals drafted Bubic in the first round out of Stanford in 2018*. * the same year my daughter graduated from Stanford

After Jordan Hicks intentionally walked Max Kepler to load the bases with no outs in the bottom of the 10th, Philadelphia had a win probability of 93.1 percent: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-phillies/2025/07/21/777063/final/summary/all Nevertheless, the walkoff ending was bizarre.

FWIW entering the season FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 56.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2025-03-17&dateDelta= Monday evening FanGraphs gaves the Sox a 44.4 chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds