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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    FWIW this poster witnessed a Kazuma Okamoto home run this year on April 9: https://npb.jp/bis/eng/2025/games/s2025040900135.html The atmosphere at Yokohama Stadium was electric. Here is a video from seven years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwUcp8404A8&t=518s
  2. harmony
    Here is one center field ranking: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2025&season1=2025&ind=0&stats=fld&pos=cf&type=1&sortcol=22&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
  3. harmony
    This season the Red Sox have the American League's fifth-highest strikeout rate at 23.0 percent, down from last year's strikeout rate of 25.4 percent, the second highest in the league. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=9&sortdir=desc&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2025&season=2025
  4. harmony
    With the implementation of the lottery for teams that missed the postseason, the worst record no longer guarantees the top pick. Last year Seattle won four more games than Boston but the Mariners have the No,. 3 pick in the July draft while the Red Sox are stuck at No. 15: https://www.mlb.com/draft/2025/order
  5. harmony
    Current Seattle manager Dan Wilson was the Mariners' All Star catcher in 1996, blocking Jason Varitek, who was floundering in the minors when dealt to Boston at the trade deadline in 1997. The Mariners drafted Wilson and Varitek out of college, Wilson with the seventh overall pick of the 1990 draft and Varitek with the 14th pick of the 1994 draft.
  6. harmony
    Not a happy day for Oriole fans: https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/57110-may-23-boston-game-1/page/24/ What a disappointing season for a franchise that won 101 games with a young club two years ago and 91 games last year.
  7. harmony
    Perhaps the most logical target is first baseman Nathaniel Lowe of the Washington Nationals, who have less than a 2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason. Lowe, who turns 30 in July, earns $10.3 million this year and remains under team control through 2026. Speculation has mentioned first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who is off to a hot start for a Milwaukee club that has about a 14 percent chance of advancing to the postseason. The 32-year-old Hoskins has a 2025 salary of $18 million with a $4 million buyout of an $18 million team option for 2026. Intradivisional trades are rare but the Baltimore Orioles could make Ryan O'Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle available while Tampa Bay could market an aging Yandy Diaz, who turns 34 in August.
  8. harmony
    Wby would a trade partner deal "the lowest innings eating pitcher of a blow out" for the underwater contract of Masastaka Yoshida and a "non-existent batter" in Ceddanne Rafaela? Using Baseball Trade Values figures*, would anyone trade Yoshida, Rafaela and $42 million to the Colorado Rockies for 30-year-old right-hander Antonio Senzatela? In early April BTV, assigned a $9.2 million surplus value to Senzatela, who has a 6.34 ERA in 10 starts this year. Senzatela is under contract through the 2026 at an annual salary of $12 million with a $14 million team option for 2027. Instead of Senzatela, the Red Sox could target 30-year-old Colorado right-hander German Marquez, a one-time All Star who is in the final year of a contract that pays $10 million this season. This month BTV assigned a negative $500,000 value to Marquez, who has 7.66 ERA in 10 starts this season. Which all points up the difficulty of acquiring value in a trade of Yoshida. * Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Rafaela and Yoshida values of $6.6 million and a negative $39.3 million, respectively
  9. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns Masataka Yoshida a negative value of $39.3 million and Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of only $6.6 million.
  10. harmony
    So far this season the Red Sox have matched last year's wRC+ of 104. Their strikeout rate has dropped from 25.4 percent in 2024 to 23.6 percent this season.
  11. harmony
    This forum welcomes newcomers all the time. Why is one newcomer more disruptive than the others? It is the fringe view? The tone of the post? A combination of both?
  12. harmony
    The FanGraphs primer on measuring defense: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/
  13. harmony
    Heed this good advice (and note the irony). Always consider whether a post is insulting.
  14. harmony
    The error ruling is often a subjective decision. Review the video under Bottom 6th in the Summary column on the right side of this Gameday page: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/summary/highlights This poster was in attendance and with the naked eye would have ruled an error, just as the official scorer did initially. Upon review of the sixth-inning play, the official scorer changed the ruling to a hit, snapping the no-hit bid by Kansas City starter Kris Bubic. The modern systems are more objective with their precise tracking of many variables.
  15. harmony
    Last night this poster attended a game in which a pitcher lost his no-hit bid in the sixth inning when the official scorer belatedly ruled a hit on a play that the scorer originally ruled an error: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/summary/all It was a rare game in which both starting pitchers -- Kansas City's Kris Bubic and San Francisco's Robbie Ray -- each tossed seven shutout innings. The 27-22 Royals won 3-1 over the 28-20 Giants.
  16. harmony
    Thank you for the response. Data is always welcome; the larger the sample the better. And in modern baseball some statistics are deemed more relevant than others. Some posts are remarkably void of statistics: https://talksox.com/profile/33568-tedyazpapimookie/ ... while others frequently cite stats: https://talksox.com/profile/32613-harmony/ We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the data of an established site such as FanGraphs and to the opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet. Welcome to the forum. Suggested rules to live by: 1. Avoid the use of I and you in posts 2. Make an exception to Rule No. 1 to pay a poster a compliment 3. Provide data that the reader can incorporate or ignore in reaching a conclusion (or no conclusion at all) 4. Arrive at the forum with the goal of learning through the exchange of ideas, not with a goal of winning arguments Take note of this quote attributed to Eleanor Roosevelt: Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people Be well.
  17. harmony
    Bias indeed is welcome on this forum, as evidenced by the response above. Jarren Duran has compiled 9.3 fWAR and a wRC+ pf 110 in 400 career games as the outfielder approaches his 29th birthday in September. Last year Duran posted 6.7 fWAR in 160 games; in his other 240 MLB games, Duran has posted 2.6 fWAR. This year Duran has posted 0.6 fWAR and a wRC+ of 97 in 47 games. Steamer projects Duran with rest-of-season WAR and wRC+ of 1.7 and 105 in 103 games while ZiPS projects Duran with WAR and wRC+ of 2.0 and 110 in 107 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#dashboard By those more objective standards, Duran is a solid MLB player. However, no one should expect a repeat of Duran's 2024 performance.
  18. harmony
    No. Simply responding to the blog's opinion: Even with a down year, he will bring in a bigger haul than anyone not named Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer.
  19. harmony
    Would three-plus years of 28-year-old Jarren Duran, working off his 2025 salary of $3.75 million, command a greater return in trade than four-plus years of 25-year-old Wilyer Abreu, who won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2026 season?
  20. harmony
    How will a defensively challenged player whose hitting is trending downward “bring in a big[] haul”? The flaws are likely apparent to potential trade partners as well.
  21. harmony
    Going into Friday's games, the Red Sox ranked fourth in the American League with an OPS+ of 109 and seventh in the league with an ERA+ of 106: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml
  22. harmony
    Front offices (and players) generally avoid contested arbitration hearings. Triston Casas may be a polarizing figure in terms of value, increasing the chances of a contested hearing. To borrow a New York Times description, his idiosyncratic persona* may add to the uncertainty. Depending on an agreed-on 2026 salary, his trade value may increase if the Red Sox and Casas settle, providing a trade partner some certainty. * https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5798196/2024/09/27/triston-casas-red-sox-most-interesting/
  23. harmony
    A potential trade partner might be wary of the arbitration process with Triston Casas.
  24. harmony
    The rest-of-season wRC+ projections for Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer at the MLB level are not vastly different (sub-100): https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#dashboard ... while their prorated rest-of-season WAR projections are similar as well.
  25. harmony
    Triston Casas almost certainly will be tendered a contract for 2026 but the contract negotiations for his first arbitration season could be interesting. Given the wide range of his perceived value, and his idiosyncratic persona, the arbitration process may well go to a contested hearing. Or not.
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