notin

Since he didn’t counter, we don’t know what he wanted. But I would imagine the 4 years was the bigger disappointment than the $22.5 mill AAV. That AAV is probably in the range he should be expecting….

I’ve been predicting it all winter. If Groome can stay healthy, he should debut (probably from the pen) this summer. He has a huge advantage over other system pitchers in that he’s already on the 40 man…

First of all, in your own post you admit that Boston isn’t his top priority and money is. I agree and hey, it’s his career. I’ve left jobs for more money, too, and I don’t consider it trailblazing. But Bogaerts isn’t “vastly” underpaid. He is a bit underpaid, but his $20mill AAV is not far behind the only two shortstops within his fWAR neighborhood - Semien ($25mill) and Story ($23mill). It looked to me like X’s only goal right now is to see if the Sox blow him away. Maybe that’s why he never made a counteroffer - he didn’t have a number in mind for what it would take. Even Devers - a full year further away - made an informal counter (“about $100 million short.”). It’s a bit vague but it gives Bloom something to work with. This is a business transaction that fans want to make personal so they can blame someone. Each side has a goal of getting the highes or lowest extreme. The Sox, with Story on board, have all the leverage right now. When X opts out, he will gain more leverage by having other teams to talk to. And if he doesn’t talk to Boston, sure his agent might say the offer was “insulting” or whatever. But really it will be because Boston didn’t make other offers or didn’t increase the years. And really, it is the years that are the problem. Xander might be able to get a better AAV than $22.5mill, but not by much. His ceiling as I’ve said all along is probably closer to $25mill. But I also would be surprised if X wanted to be a free agent again at 33….

Maybe they put a lot of faith in the team after 2021? Sale was a non-factor and the team went pretty far. The big problem with investing in pitching is the massive risks. While people mistakenly claim Barnes hasn’t been the same since signing a contract, they often overlook is pretty much true for Sale. It’s easy to say “get more pitching”, but unless you already have it, there’s too much that can and often does go wrong. And sure, fans want the team to take the few bad years to go along with the fewer good years a free agent pitcher would bring. And ask any fan, they tell you they don’t mind the off years. You know, until they show up. Like pesky credit card bills.

There are some and very few exceptions. Bernie Williams also spurned a larger deal from the Red Sox to return to NY. But Xander has that option for the next 3 years and is instead choosing to opt out. This may have always been his intention, and I don’t fault him at all for it. But it also says staying in Boston is not most important to him. It’s not his top priority. If it was, he probably never even asks for the opt out. It’s his career and his life and he can manage it how he wants to. But let’s not pretend playing for the Red Sox is his most important thing when most of his actions and inactions indicate otherwise…

Varitek did test free agency but ultimately signed with Boston. I believe that was after 2004…

Exactly. A “hometown discount” is really a contract where the players takes less money to avoid other risks before free agency…

1. Every player always says they want to stay where they are prior to reaching free agency. 2. Per Heyman, there was no counter offer. You either believe the report or not, but picking and choosing what parts you believe is tantamount to making up your own story 3. If Bogaerts wanted to stay and especially if that was his priority, they’d make counter offer. There is no other way to make it happen. It looks like Bogaerts wants Boston as long as Boston meets his price. Which means playing in Boston is not the priority for Xander. And really, that’s how every player is. They don’t hire agents to get them on the teams they want to play for…

Exactly. And in a handful of games, the jury on Story is still out…

But Semien’s career isn’t built on playing home games in Coors, too. I admit, I’m not big on Story. The only thing I like right now is that he does prove the Sox are not Tampa Bay North…

I do think the Semien deal would be better if Semien was allowed to play shortstop…

Unlike you, I won’t speak for Xander. At best I can guess (and point it out as such). But if you think Bogaerts wants Boston, why was there no counteroffer from his side? Whether or not he was insulted is immaterial. (Especially since Bogaerts was not likely there when Boston made the offer.) If Bogaerts wanted to stay, he would have already had a number in mind. Why not present it?

If Bogaerts is willing to settle for 6 or 7 years, I’d argue for keeping him. But given the deals his counterparts like Lindor and Seager received, I imagine he’s aiming higher. I don’t think he will get a 10 year deal like Lindor or Seager, but a 7 year deal like Semien does seem reasonable to me. But then what I think is reasonable and what Bogaerts/Boras thinks is reasonable might not be all that compatible …

The first two years of that contract did make it closer than it should have been…

I have my doubts Boston is his priority. A new well-paying contract? Absolutely he wants one. He hired Scott Boras as his representative. Players don’t hireBoras so they can take hometown discounts (although it has happened, including once by Bogaerts). But now it looks like he wants a new deal on his terms and at the value he (and Scott) have determined. And if he won’t get it from Boston, he knows he can learn to love a new city with new fans and a new atmosphere…

At least the second, after Nate Eovaldi…

It’s possible the prospects were thrown in to entice the Sox to take the entirety of Bradley’s contract. If this deal was all about the prospects, why did Bloom settle for two guys ranked so unimpressively in Milwaukee’s farm? Undervalued or not, these are not prospects you take on a $12mill AAV multi year contract to acquire…

They may not. And it might be the right decision. I think if/when Bogaerts does leave, there will be a point in his next contract when Sox fans actually think “ok glad he’s not here anymore.” But that point absolutely won’t be in 2023. Probably not until like 2027 or 2028, when Bogaerts starts slipping and Marcelo Mayer is rising to the top…

While it isn’t likely, I suppose it’s possible Devers (or any star) could go all Cody Bellinger, who right now is making a solid argument for NOT locking up young stars…

If he’s as insulted as many are saying, why would he?

And if he ever does it, I expect it to be an infrequent occurrence…

Honestly, right now I’d take $3,000…

The more I think about this deal, the better I realize it was. I mean, we dealt a player who was non-tendered by a small market team that didn’t want to pay him $3mil. In return we received a player than another small market team did want to pay $36 mill over 3 years. And they included prospects. As fans, sometimes we get a better idea when we remember the last season isn’t the only season…

I think it’s the last 5 years - the ones where the difference jumps from $7mill to $30mill - that might be the bigger issue than the first six years…

There were a couple points that do make me disagree with this. 1. The team defense last year was, to be kind, subpar. Bradley absolutely helps there. 2. Bradley had an insanely low BABIP relative to his batted ball profile. His line drive rate was one of the best of his career, for example. There was evidence of a lot of bad luck on his part…