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Everything posted by notin
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Rendon was older than Devers when he signed, but at age 26 his 12 career fWAR did trail Devers at that age. Over the next 3 years, Rendon would be worth nearly 19 fWAR. Devers certainly could do that, but will he?
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So say it comes down to this: Devers wants 10 years $350mill Judge wants 7 years $260mill Who do you sign?
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The 1996-2000 Yankees?
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That’s why they hired Bobby Valentine. The hired s manager they KNEW would be a problem. If the team succeeded, they can blame Tito and call themselves genius problem-solvers. If the team failed, they can say it proves the manager was the problem…
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Or Japan to foster more geographically-impaired baseball stars…
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BTV gives Marquez a surplus value of $4.3mill, making Matt Lugo ($5.6mill) a more than adequate return by that standard…
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Will Devers settle for a 7 year deal like Rendon did? Are you suggesting a 7 year $266mill contract? Or a 10 year $380mill contract? And are we defining fair market value as “what the player wants”?
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Devers was worth 4.9 fWAR. Judge was worth 11.4 fWAR. Judge could decrease a lot while Devers improves a lot and still be better and hypothetically cheaper. I don’t think it’s such an easy question. Although a lot depends on Judge’s actual demands…
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Can we get a smarter troll? Maybe one who can read at the fourth grade level???
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Not really…
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The question then is - what’s a fair market contract for Devers? Is he really a $300mill player? What might get interesting is if Judge at age 30 isn’t a $300mill player. Every player who has signed a $300mill contract was at least three younger than Judge when they signed. (Edit: Gerrit Cole was actually one year younger.) So if Devers wants $300mill and Judge is looking like $280mill, who do you sign?
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The lowball offer to Devers appears to be the same offer Austin Reilly accepted. And interestingly, Reilly has been the better player over the last two seasons…
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I’m sure he will be, but that doesn’t mean the Sox will make the best offer. Or relocate to the west coast where the bulk of those Japanese players sign…
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But would you prefer Devers and Judge over that pair? Even taking into account Judge’s potentially exorbitant contract?
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I’ve been saying that since 2019. Except I didn’t ask Bloom to do it back then
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Apparently Danish held the top spot. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/tyler-danish-elects-free-agency.html
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Maybe they mean he pitches like this guy: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castilu01.shtml
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Is the goal a cheaper version of the status quo? The Sox might be without Bogaerts and/or Devers. There might be considerable offense to make up…
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I’m not sold on Hosmer as DH, mostly because he’s not much of a hitter. I don’t think the Sox need to go overboard here. But if Brantley can be had on a two year deal, it’s a vast improvement…
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DHern does have somewhat of an advantage being left-handed. Also while his limited opportunities in 2022 were abysmal, he does have a track record of at least being somewhat playable on occasion…
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Don’t forget I’m calling him versatile in comparison to Hosmer, who is weak at 1b and never played anywhere else, and Duran, who may not be able to play any defensive position adequately. It was not a statement made in a vacuum…
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But I agree the Sox are pretty likely to DFA Cordero, unless he is the 4th outfielder. Not sure if he is better overall than Duran, however. And Cordero at least has some (albeit unimpressive) experience at 1b. Someone like Duran or Hosmer doesn’t even have that much versatility. Ort is useless. He is the first man DFAd…
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I would place Hosmer as very high on the DFA list. Casas was impressive and stands a good chance at the very least to not be the weakest link in the lineup. And if he is even league averages with some growing pains, where does Hosmer fit in. Hosmer himself has some trade value because San Diego can pay the overwhelming bulk of his salary. But his NTC could be an obstacle in moving him. We only know he won’t accept a deal to a rebuilding team, but he might have other preferences that make finding a trade partner difficult. If Casas has first, and Dalbec is still around, what is Hosmer’s role? Mediocre DH? Or third string 1b with no other positions? If it’s the latter, isn’t he just a waste of a 40 man roster spot?
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That is possible, but the PR of trying and failing is never as successful as the PR of bringing the player back or off replacing him. The bottom line is, with or without Devers, the Sox need to field a successful team that wins games and if fun to watch. Devers is not going to make this easy with his reported demand of $300mill. And I don’t think too many are going to side with Bloom that his offer was comparable to what Austin Reilly accepted. In fact, bringing back Bogaerts won’t change this. No one will think he did his job properly if he lets Devers go and extends Bogaerts instead, just like no one said that when DD extended Bogaerts and Sale after not extending Betts. But Bloom also appears to be in a position where he can’t simply capitulate to every star player’s demand either. Because the effects of that go beyond simply extending the player and can impact future contracts…
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That’s not just a possible answer. That’s where we are. Teams aren’t rebellious outsiders because they use data; they’re the rebellious outsider if they don’t. Of course, now that it’s mainstream, each day of the season, 50% of the teams using it will lose…
