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What’s the difference between Buehler and Means? They’re one year apart in age, and both injured all the time. Buehler is slightly healthier (which isn’t saying much), but Means is a better pitcher…

I don’t think titles justify every move. Trading Bagwell for Andersen was never going to be a good move, regardless of the final outcome that season…

It would hardly be surprising if his rapid drop in performance followed by TJ surgery were both connected events. There are precedents, including current Sox minor leaguer Michael Fulmer, who just fell apart for no apparent reason while pitching out of the Cubs’ bullpen, and then had his second TJ. (Not sure why, after two TJs, Breslow is contemplating a return to the rotation for Fulmer.)

It’s arguable they overpaid for Story, but there are two clear sides. What’s inarguable is that they “jumped” on him and didn’t do their due diligence. A couple days ago on this forum I said a lot of people view signings they don’t like as the result of laziness or sloppiness by the front office, strongly implying if these people put in the work, things would work out better. Now I do not know everything that does into signing an MLB free agent, but I am far more than 100% confident in believing that process is more thorough and involved than most realize (myself includes).. We are talking in many cases about nine figure transactions, but want to believe they’re being done apathetically, quite often to justify a choice in player that we didn’t agree with…

So dont trade Casas. Because you can absolutely NOT get a young top of the rotation starter for him…

So the Sox unloaded Cam Booser to the White Sox for some 18yo Venezuelañ kid named Yhoiker Fajardo. I assume this was done to open up a roster spot for Sandoval and not some other forthcoming move…

Apparently the plan is to play Cody Bellinger in CF. Somewhere in the country right now, a very disappointed Trent Grisham is screaming “WHAT THE f***!!”

At one point, Rickey was the all time career leader in three categories - stolen bases, runs and walks, until Barry Bonds surpassed him in walks. It’s a small list for players who sat atop of three categories. And he is still the all time leader in the other two. One of the greatest offensive players ever…

$30+ mill for 7-8 years for a pitcher who can’t pitch, plus it can cost you rising star players that departure in free agency because you can’t afford the extensions. Plus not being able to afford a good replacement .It can hold a team back. If folks Yoshida’s remaining $55.8mill over 3 years are detrimental, what’s the overall effect of paying one ineffective player $250mill over 8 years? Think of a Giolito contract, but four times longer at 1.5 times the rate. If you think of Giolito as $38mill for one year as bad, what did you think of $116 mill for Sale for less than a year? And how did the Sox recoup those IP they didn’t get from Sale? Or Price? Again, if that player - let’s call him “Corbin” works out - the team does well and Corbin makes his case for Cooperstown. But if he flops right away, then what? Hope?

Long term deals in Free agency only work if you’re signing future Hall of Famers (or players close to that level). Freeman, Betts, Scherzer, Ohtani and maybe even Seager are all good candidates. Otherwise you’re just signing an aging player to wind down his days. Is Burnes a future Hall of Famer, or at least close? He’s 30 and in 4 yrs as a starter has been worth 16.5 bWAR. He might be able to post another 30ish bWAR in the next 7 years, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he didn’t. Plenty of teams have gone as big as LA with free agency and been complete flops, too. In fact, it’s probably the more likely outcome. Also Yamamoto is a different case, as he wasn’t as old as most free agents. Thats a big factor. So Will Burnes be another Scherzer? Or another Price? It costs about a quarter of a billion non-refundable US dollars to find out. If he is, then whoever signs him reaps huge benefits. But if he isn’t, that type of deal can keep a team non-competitive for nearly a decade. And maybe longer…

Then fix the pen and defense. Better defense will improve both the SP and the bullpen. If the Sox actually sign Alex Bregman, that helps the defense immensely. Or they could get a good defensive 3b back for Crawford, which is another option. (They missed out on Isaac Paredes, who would have been so perfect for Fenway.)

Like I’ve been telling you since the last Internet forum, free agency is about PR. By showing “interest”, the Sox are telling fans they’re willing to spend money without actually spending money. And in many cases, that’s probably the right decision. Burnes and Fried are certainly upgrades, but over the next few years are they better investments than Tanner Houck? Last year, Fried was worth 3.5 bWAR, Burnes was worth 3.4 bWAR, and Houck was worth 3.5 bWAR. Over the next 7 years, who will have the most bWAR? Max Fried? Corbin Burnes? Or Brayan Bello?

The Sox can get an innings water through free agency easier than they can a catcher. Of course if Crawford has all this value as an innings eater(which I agree with 100%), who should the Sox be bumping from the rotation for this new SP that many say we desperately need? Innings eaters are less effective in part time/reserve roles…

Right around the time they extended Eovaldi, they also extended Sale for 5 years $145mill. And still had David Price on the roster. Price signed a 7 year $217mill contract. He opted out of one year, so his deal (including in LA) was for a pitcher who pitched 6 years and was worth 11.1 bWAR. Or less than 2 bWAR per year. They signed Sale to a 5 year $145 mill contract. After 4 years, Sale had accumulated 2.6 bWAR. It took a Triple Crown/Cy Young/6.2 bWAR season to get him anywhere near 2 bWAR/yr. So for $305mill, the Sox signed themselves two pitchers almost as effective as Kutter Crawford Eovaldi signed a 4 year (really 3.4 yr) contract for $68mill. In those 3.4 years, he was worth, 7 fWAR, making him the by far best FA signing. Of course, at the time Eovaldi was a 29yo journeyman with 2 Tommy John surgeries and a career high of 2.3 bWAR in his rear view mirror. There were bigger names on the market that got paid more than Eovaldi. But we got the mid-range guy, and he outperformed the overpriced stars. Of course, part of that is he the mid—range arms dont get 7 year deals. But that is also a huge factor. Maybe this is why they avoid pitchers like Fried and Burnes…

Crawford is too good to waste in a long reliever role. Long reliever is the White Flag of the bullpen. I like him as a fifth starter. But he might have more value as a trade chip…

Crawford is in his first arb year with 3 arb years remaining. He’s been worth 4.3 fWAR / 4.6 bWAR over the last two seasons, and is coming off a 33 start / 183 IP season. Those 33 starts lead all of MLB. BTV places his surplus value at $30mill. While he is no longer a minimum wage earner, Crawford will have his appeal with nearly every team in MLB. With a few holes to fill and the free agent market saturated with overpriced dreck, this might be a better solution. Crawford did lead MLB in home runs allowed last year, but about one third of ten came in a bad three start stretch after the All Star break. If the Sox can deal Crawford for a good defensive catcher (not a career BUC guy, either) and a good bullpen arm, they should do it…

He could have come in here already canonized as Saint Aroldis, but after his first walk off home run, he’s a bum!!!

The Sox “jumped” at Story? They signed him on March 23rd. That’s like a week before opening day. Im not so sure they jumped at Yoshida, who they did apparently have on their radar even before abloom was hired, if you believe the story. It seems like the tendency is for us to assume any signing we don’t like or that doesn’t work out is the product of laziness or sloppiness by the FO. Deep down, we know that isn’t true. But it’s easy. There is no amount of hard work that makes predicting the future a perfect task, despite what we’d like…

Image or not, fans are harsh on any player who struggles…

Then he should fire his agent. Doubtful the Sox just jumped up to an $18mill figure on their own, and I doubt Sandoval’s agent told him to just accept first offer. These lesser budget teams are looking for cheap pitching. Certainly one or two called Sandoval’s agent…

This is why the Sox shouldn’t waste time with Burnes. Add some bullpen arms, preferably a high leverage one or two, acquire a catcher who can catch, and upgrade the defense. All those moves will improve the pitching.

I don’t think you’re going to see another good starter added unless it’s via trade with one of the ones we already have heading back. Sandoval is the tenth or eleventh SP on the Sox 40 man roster, depending on whether or not you count Fulmer. That’s a lot of spots just for starting pitching. They could (and might) deal off one or two to get a catcher or a RHH or whatever. And maybe they think of Dobbins or Fitts or whoever as a reliever. But I’d be surprised if they started the season with 12-15 starting pitchers on the 40 man.

Did you expect half the league to trade for him? If the Mariners pulled that off, our friend MaxBialystock would be impressed..

I wouldn’t be surprised if someone was. The pitching market is hot right now; there’s a reason half the league is interested in Luis Castillo…

Are the Sox really going to ad another SP? Currently on the 40 man roster they have Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and Criswell. And reportedly they plan to try and return Fulmer to a SP role. And now Sandoval, who cannot be moved to the 60 day IL until Spring Training. That’s 11 starting pitchers out of 40 players. Sure, a couple (few?) might eventually fall back into bullpen roles at some point. But that’s kind of a lot of SP numerically to have at this point in the offseason…