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Let’s call it $290mill. $29mill AAV. Impossible to know, but it seems like 12 year $348mill contract might have at least been tempting, Those last two years…

HOF has nothing to do with WAR calculations. Really it is part of this discussion because it supports how much closers are overrated. I know Rivera’s postseason stats support his legend, but how many titles do the Yankees win without him? In fact, an argument exists they might have won more without him…

I think of it as like the Kelly Blue Book value on a car. It establishes a value, but you’re only going to get what someone offers you…

And that is why one went into Cooperstown and one didn’t. But it doesn’t mean WAR undervalues closers. If anything you’re strengthening the argument that it works well for them. That an elite reliever in 60 IP can have the same impact as a league-average 1b makes a lot of sense. I think WAR values relievers fine, it just makes more sense with the perspective you’ve added…

I know you probably read it in an article or a blog or post somewhere, but it really feels like bringing the activities of his spouse into the fray definitely has a creepy stalker vibe.

I think part of the point is closers/relievers do play a compacted role, which makes them less valuable in terms of WAR. By your logic, backup catchers accruing 0.5 fWAR by the All Star break should be considered for the roster…

That supports fan perception of closer’s value, not actual value…

I do Schmitt/Witherspoon. Adames has 5 years left and will be playing like the current version Trevor Story in 2-3 years. The biggest difference between the two now is Adames can at least still throw. I am not giving up on Bello after two bad months. Players have bad years. And his contract is basically mid-rotation starter/mid-tier closer money. I think Bello could be a game-changing force in the bullpen. Whereas I think Adames is a stopgap shortstop with high albatross potential…

Definitely. If ever two players were readily available…

This one is on me. Misread “Mayor” for “Mayer”. Oops…

Some people wanted bats, but mostly they wanted Henry to spend. But that’s the point. Anthony isn’t flailing away at bad pitches and making bad contact. He’s actually hitting the ball well. And if he was being pitched around, either his walks or strikeouts would change noticeably, but neither has. In fact, he’s striking out less often than last year. Outside of a reduced barrel rate, he is hitting almost exactly like last year. But the end results are drastically different. How was another bat going to change that?

Yes we were all disappointed that the Sox spent a full weekend contemplating Yordan Alvarez vs Tayron Guerrero. Hindsight looks like a bat was needed. Or at least some honesty from Story that he wasn’t feeling well. But adding a bat in place of Durbin wasn’t going to fix slow starts by Duran, Story, Anthony, and a few others. Most people who want another bat also seem to think that bat was needed in the bench for some reason, replacing IKF or Yoshida. I agree clutch hitters are usually just good hitters, with very, very few exceptions. The Sox do suck this year; no one is questioning that. But was there any reason to expect Duran to be this bad at the plate? Or Story? Some guys - Narvaez, Anthony, Durbin - there’s not a long track record to go by. But do you think Anthony hasn’t been unlucky? Anthony has a .675 OPS with 1 HR. Sal Stewart has a .840 OPS with 12 home runs. Is that difference really reflected in their respective StatCasts? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sal-stewart-701398?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/roman-anthony-701350?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

They got him in January…

I would have been so annoyed if they ended the ninth with runners on second and third after doing just that in the 8th…

Thats a common belief. Mariano Rivera was worth 39 fWAR in 19 seasons and was the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame. Gary Gaetti was worth 39 fWAR in 19 seasons and can’t get into the Hall of Fame without paid admission. Some say this is proof WAR under values closers. But - maybe fans just overvalue them? They really do very little if anything to increase a team’s win total; they just pitch one inning against whoever comes up - often not the best hitters. In fact, the entire point of using an opener was to have the closer (or equivalent) guaranteed to face the opponent’s best hitters. That doesn’t mean “anyone can close,” just like anyone cannot start. It’s like that common myth that relievers are inconsistent pitchers. Sure, some certainly are. But the ones entrusted with the ninth inning year after year are most definitely not. The odds are in a closer’s favor, which is inherent to the role. But most consistent relief pitchers could pribably be very good closers.

Wong being doubled off is just as bad, but the inning before was nearly identical with Duran on 3rd after Abreu’s wall ball and he wasn’t sent home. Same sutuation with one out. Duran and Abreu were both LOB. I do get sending him. Most times those throws are up the line or take a tough bounce. Did the Sox really want to try to leave runners on second and third with one out in both the 8th and 9th?

This was just so unlucky. They launched the ball all over the park in the 8th and 9th innings and only had one run to show for it…

They just left runners on 2nd and 3rd the inning before. I get that send…

Normal weather and that blast from IKF walks it off…

Wong should have scored. Larnach made a great play and the relay was perfect. The Twins OF defense has stopped the Sox the last two innings. Who said “defense doesn’t win games?”

Leverage Index is a factor in WAR https://library.fangraphs.com/war/calculating-war-pitchers/

Youre post only mentioned high leverage closer innings to low leverage innings from other relievers, as if thats all either faces. Non-closing relievers can experience as many high leverage innings as closers. Sometimes more. All Save situations might be listed as “high leverage” but that’s actually ridiculous. Theyre simply not all made equal…

The Sox have no use for Refsnyder. Buying low for what? Hoping he turns it around in August? This is a player on a short term here. When it’s a Mariner player, his .355 OPS can be ignored because he’s been “highly productive” at some point. But the Boston players only have immediate stats considered for comparison to the career Seattle bench players. When teams in the postseason hunt start pawning off rostered Major League players, it’s not because those players have too much usefulness left. The main reason you’re thinking they should move Refsnyder is because he sucks this year. Why not lead with that? Exactly…

Not necessarily. A lot depends on the money and years of the target bat.

How much higher? They were right there per the article. Scott says “10 years $200mill” was a real offer, and when asked if the Sox went higher he says “about $100million more.” I suppose an argument exists about his intentional vagueness, but it’s not difficult to see an offer very close to 10 years $300mill, which is the same AAV that Mookie signed with LA. Only two years shorter…