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That’s essentially what I said…

There’s a big difference between a prediction and sarcastically expressing bad luck. sale was worth more bWAR at age 35 than he was worth from ages 30-34 combined. That’s a very, very short list. And THAT is an undisputed fact. I’d be surprised if anyone else was on it period. Most people who said his comeback was obvious had that astute observation around June. There were some who objected, but their grounds at the time were universally “the Sox need pitching. Dont trade it away.” Not that Sale was clearly going to be healthy for the first time in seven years. And that is also a fact. It was a bad trade, but not one as easily foreseen as critics claim now some 17 months later. Theres probably some overlap between fans who said Sale’s comeback was obvious and fans expressing disappointment Bloom didn’t unloaded him on Texas a for nothing year earlier. Food for thought - in his last 4 years with Boston, Sale was worth 2.5 bWAR. In his first 3 injury-plagued seasons with Boston, Trevor Story was worth 4.0 bWAR. Think the younger Story is primed for an equivalent comeback?

Based on what? He couldn’t possibly complain more than Devers did…

Get over Sale. From 2019 thru 2023 (ages 30-34), Sale was worth a total of 4.6 bWAR. Are you really upset at Breslow for not for seeing that comeback at age 35? No one did. I know at this point, there’s always some smart ass saying “Atlanta did!” No, they didn’t. They knew they got lucky. If they thought Sale was due for that level of comeback, they wouldn’t have risked losing him by asking for money, too. And we really don’t know what Breslow ran by Cora. Since Cora wasn’t so keen on moving Devers off third to begin with, it’s not hard to believe he backed away from a second attempt to move Devers. And I get why; unlike Breslow, Cora has to work with Devers every day…

Truth. Even lesser players are extremely good. The worst MLB ball player is still better at baseball than any of us are at anything

Not a batting order… Duran 1b Campbell 2b Mayer 3b Story SS Anthony LF Rafaela CF Abreu RF

Have it by Friday. Like all accountants, your self-imposed deadlines need to be brought it regardless of realistic timelines…

You make that sound like a threat. The offense is definitely scuffling right now. It’s easy to point to their 19 run outburst vs Baltimore as the product of facing a non-pitcher, but bear in mind they did have to beat up an actual pitcher to get to that point. Id like Anthony to come up. It’s free and reversible if it doesn’t work, unlike a trade. But moving Rafaela out of CF seems like the bad option. His glove isn’t a game-changing option anywhere else, and his offense is never a solution to anything, except maybe opposing pitchers…

True. Rafaela has one purpose. That’s why he bats ninth. That’s why I advocate for moving Duran to 1b. Anthony to LF. It does appear the Sox will take a different path with Campbell going to 1b. Does this mean Rafaela to 2b? I think the Sox might need a better option there. Preferably not named Hamilton.

Your calculator broken?

Through the first 57 games, the Red Sox have scored more than 10 runs in a game 4 times this year. The Yankees have done it 8 times through 54 games. The Sox offense does appear to have stepped back without Bregman, he says, with a grasp for the mind-numbingly obvious…

Normally I expect Brenton Doyle to be higher on the list, but I can give his 2025 a pass, all things considered…

Small point, but you liked Bradley more. Not kidding, but between Bradley, Kike and Rafaela, Sox have gotten some really good CF defense in recent years…

Manage?

Yeah, retrofitting stats has been around the game longer than chewing tobacco and hot feet. You can get save stats from the 1910s and 1920s despite the save not bring a stat until 1969. If you think about it, this wasn’t easy to do. I mean, you needed to review every game for what the score and base runners were when the pitcher entered the game, make sure he didn’t lose the lead, etc. For every pitcher/every team. As for WAR, there are no defensive metrics on Fangraphs before 2003 (I think?), but there are WAR numbers. The offense is based on Runs Created, which is a calculated stat with many formulas. The most common is RC = (H+BB+HBP)*TB/PA or something like that. No idea how they got defensive runs or base running runs, possibly just simple formulae using TC, A, PO, E, etc for defense. No idea on baserunning.

I know it’s been a while, but another way to look at it is in 7 years he really hasn’t made much progress as an outfielder. Last year, he did look good, but this year Hes making 2024 look like some sort of outlier. Moving from anywhere to 1b seems to be done quite often in MLB. Why not try Duran? It does open up LF for Anthony. (I fully expect Cora forego this solution.)

Well it made a difference when referring to the “small rough patch” he was going thru at the time. I didn’t know back then it was going to last at least an additional 4 more weeks…

Small point, but I’d call Rafaela the second base defensive CF in MLB. Pete Crow-Armstrong has managed to supersede his defensive hype in my eyes…

Get that man a 1b mitt!!

So he was the third best prospect on the Astros back then, back when Boston’s third ranked prospect was Bobby Dalbec. Hes never made anyone’s Top 100 list, which is not the end-all of prospect rankings (Paul Goldschmidt never made a top 100 list either, for example), but it does still mean he was less regarded than, say, Victor Victor Mesa and Cotton Welker…

Duran is their best option for a leadoff hitter, and he can use his speed to change the course of an inning. It seems like any time an outfielder needs to take just a couple lateral steps to field his single, he turns it into an easy double. But he’s really not a good defensive outfielder…

Cora was hired by Houston because of his serious in-depth knowledge of analytics, to the point where he basically told the team everything they had been doing was outdated and incomplete. (Source: Cheated by Andy Martino) Would it really be surprising if Boston hired him for this same reason?

Never ranked anywhere, which gives him fewer credentials than Jeter Downs. He clearly has MLB talent; he’s made multiple MLB rosters. But he’s not someone any team wants as a starter getting meaningful at bats every day, despite his recent hot streak…

It’s not even June. Plenty of teams with worse starts have made the postseason…

Carried by his .611 slugging. But if he reverts towards his career SLG of .382 vs RHP, it’s going to be ugly. His OBP already aligns with his sub-.300 career mark…