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Given the obvious Dombrowski-Greene connection, I normally would be flat out surprised if Dombrowski didn’t make an attempt to get Greene, or at least assume he had a good reason for passing. But the way Apathy Dave has been this year, I’m not sure of anything...

I think it comes down to each source measuring differently what it takes to contribute to a win. Doesn’t mean either one is wrong, but they are measuring different aspects of the same thing It’s like if you asked two fisherman which one caught the bigger fish. If the first one said “mine was 30 inches” and the second one said “mine was 12 pounds”, who caught the bigger fish, using that data only? And is either one “wrong”?

I think he stays for 2020 and Boras re-assesses the market to speculate if 2021 makes sense or he can get 3 or 4 years...

Putting aside WAR arguments (stop bringing them up, Bellhorn!! ), this is a thread about 2020. Obviously s lot hinges on Sale. OH FOY (I believe) cited the sportrac.com number that the Sox available budget for 2020 is $56mill. If the arbitration cases for Betts (say, $25mill), ERod ($8mill-ish) and Benintendi ($6mill) come out with these wild guesses which could be collectively close, that leaves about $17mill for remaining arbitration cases (Barnes, Workman, Hembree, and a couple others) finishing the 25 man roster, and leaving a little headway to improve or replace an injured player mid season. Tight budget. This is if a reset is in order. If the Sox go all in for 2020, it does mean 2021 and beyond are very likely going to be struggles...

Most of your criticisms of WAR can be applied to any stat. Not perfect. Easily misinterpreted. Stats are a historical record. All of them,including WAR, RBIs, K/BB. They’re all stuff that happened, whether they’re easy to understand or not. Or interpreted different ways. But no stat judges talent. Not one. Citing the equality in WAR between Jensen and Piersall as a flaw ignores different ways of looking at it. Anyone who values longevity for example. All stats have that issue. I know people who think a hitter is measured by home runs. So do you. There are a lot of them. If you use home runs as a yardstick, Jim Thome was better than Ted Williams. Does that mean home runs are flawed? Hell if you want to see an overvaluedflawed stat, go see who is second on the Sox in Wins this year. And you absolutely know people who think wins are a measure of pitching ability. Only recently did the BBWAA come to the realization they may not be. Or maybe Porcello is the second most talented pitcher on the Sox. The counter argument is a lot of stats have issues. Focusing on WAR like it’s the only one is ignorant of this...

The app doesn’t show post numbers. C&P please?

So... you’re worried about the perception of a stat that you had to explain to people? Let’s just say casual fans assume “higher equals better” and take it as gospel. What’s the big deal? People make massive assumptions about ERA and BA and have for over a century.

No one has EVER said WAR is perfect. No one has even implied it. That you infer WAR being perfect is not the fault of the stat. And we’re not talking about scouts doing eye test. We’re talking about fans. Potentially rabid fans, but fans nonetheless. However, the argument “it worked for years” doesn’t fly. Horses served the transportation market for centuries. But I bet you still own a car...

You did it twice on this thread. In the Jensen/Piersall post, and a later post about some baseball experts who don’t know about baseball-reference.com. (The app doesn’t show post numbers. Apologies.) And the big difference between WAR and the eye test is that WAR has a baseline. The eye test is 100% subjectivity...

Maybe we need Christian Vazquez to punch Aaron Judge in the face?

Most people don’t know how to use the eye test. 1) It’s not even for the same criteria as WAR. 2) It doesn’t work for televised baseball. 3) It primarily involves massive imbalances in sample size. So saying “Bradley is a good CF” with the eye test is one thing. But saying “Bradley is a the best defensive CF” or “Bradley is a better defensive CF than Pillar and Kiermeier” with eye test criteria is another. 4) And to be honest, for most people the eye test boils down to “ I saw that guy make an error once.” You can’t denigrate WAR because people might not understand it, but still champion the eye test with that flaw...

It felt like that had been failing for months

When you go to the Boss for help to fill some holes, and he says “Play better!!”, it’s not a good sign...

The safe assumption is the reset. That way an additional spending is a pleasant surprise...

If it’s as uninteresting as last off-season, I plan on complaining even more....

Not sure. If they do stay under limits, reportedly they have about $56mill to spend. Out of that they have to pay Betts, Benintendi, ERod, Workman, Bradley, and all the other arb cases. And then fill out the roster. Now if they blow past limits in 2019, maybe. But then Mookie is definitely gone forever. Resetting this season keeps them in the very limited Mookie market...

Not “penny” pinching. “Years” pinching. Always have been, especially with pitchers. The only thing I liked about the Price deal was the opt out...

Not sure. But I do know this. All year long I defended Bradley’s weak offense by saying People shouldn’t be so critical of the offense from the ninth spot hitter. But the flip side is, in a time of a potential budget crunch with multiple needs on the roster, you really can’t expect to pay that same ninth spot hitter with questionable offense $10-12 mill...

I really don’t see the tragedy in fans “misinterpreting” WAR values. It’s not like there is a ironclad right or wrong answer in a lot of cases. Certain people value certain aspects of the game differently, and that can lead to a multitude of responses. Heck some fans think a player’s abilities should be solely measured by rings. Trying to say “WAR is flawed because it allows fans to disagree with me” doesn’t really sound like a critical flaw in that case....

And yet your argument hinges on these people looking up WAR values?

Not sure how valuable it has to be. Baseballtradevalues.com, for example, gives him a very low surplus value. He’s in the higher-paid years of his contract. And having a down year. What if Atlanta would take Brian Johnson or Travis Lakins for him?

Still far too long...

Might be a different story with his $4mill drop in pay next season...

Is the pitcher with the better ERA the better pitcher? Know how many people think that’s true? Really this is a flaw with batting average as well. Tons of people think higher BA = better PLAYER (not hitter, player).. Even though that’s not what WAR measures, it’s closer to true with WAR than other stats with that sand flaw...

By that logic, eye tests data are useless, too. It’s certainly possible for multiple people to watch the same thing and get different results...