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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    I think we can assume it’s similar. It’s a tougher park for a lefty to homer in, but his effort and mindset are likely the same regardless of where he plays. Now what we do know factually is he simply isn’t hitting the ball as well as he did last year, a year where he spent the majority of his games in San Francisco. His exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel percentage, are all down. His whiff rate is up and his walk rate is way down. Hes also striking out slightly more, but that’s not necessarily fair to compare, because the rules are different in 2026. These changes are not a result of atmosphere. But I have to pass on the walk/strikeout stuff since I don’t know how he’s been impacted by challenges…
  2. notin
    I think a lot of the batters that need replacement are already rostered. Yoshida, IKF, Gasper, Monasterio - none of these players were supposed to be starters, except maybe whoever was going to platoon with Mayer at 2b. Their best lineup with everyone healthy is: C: Narvaez 1b: Contreras 2b: Story SS: Mayer 3b: Durbin LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu DH: Anthony In that lineup, Mayer could be replaced (and demoted). Certainly Anthony’s replacement (Yoshida) has been a flop. I’m ok with the corner Durbin has turned. I also prefer Story not play SS. Narvaez has struggled, but he is a good catcher and that is one position where defense is paramount. If a better hitting catcher that can play the spot is available, great. Ever since Breslow has announced he wants to add a RHH bat to the mix, rumors have been all but non-existent. So far, he’s just attached to Paredes. I like the fit at Fenway, but at what cost here? Is this the only name so far?
  3. notin
    Four major league bats? That number goes up daily. Which four starting hitters would you replace?
  4. notin
    Yoshida’s been a disappointment, especially since the shoulder surgery. I would be surprised if he is on the 2027 Red Sox…
  5. notin
    Which begs the question - is Paredes the bat worth extending? Were he a capable 3b, thats different.. But he’s kind of shoddy there. And while he represents an upgrade at DH, that isn’t exactly the toughest role to fill. I mean, the long forgotten Triston Casas probably represents an upgrade at DH, once he figures out how to make routine baseball plays without maiming himself. I think the DH position upgrades itself when Anthony returns. Which begs the question, if you’re trading your top pitching prospect in this deal, where will Paredes play long term?
  6. notin
    No. Will any teams even be shopping for 1b/DH types? Besides maybe Boston?
  7. notin
    As Mets fans in the 80’s used to say before disembarking for home games - “touché”
  8. notin
    You need to write nasty emails about this to the folks at Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs, and StatsInc. I mean, you’ve been speculating for months about what Devers would be doing if he was still in Boston. You need to tell them what you know that they don’t…
  9. notin
    He’s probably traded away as many pitchers doing nothing, and most of them were pitchers he’s traded for at some point. I think the only homegrown pitcher Hes traded away are Hunter Dobbins and Luis Perales. Others like Harrison, Priester and Fitts just briefly passed through the Sox system, and only Harrison cost any quality to get. He did give away Sale, but at the time Sale there was no reason to believe he was going to return to Elite Chris Sale…
  10. notin
    Am I correct in assuming they’re dictating the responses to you as well?
  11. notin
    Well thanks for telling us you’re clearly the smartest person out there and your pure speculation is superior to the entire industry’s mathematical work that you don’t even understand…
  12. notin
    In layman’s terms, Devers .706 ops In Oracle is more impressive than Freeman’s .725 OPS in Coors. I wanted a Fenway comp, but the closest I had was Connor Wong’s OPS+ of 103 at .713. That seemed a similar scale to Devers in Oracle…
  13. notin
    Just as well as this is not an audible medium…
  14. notin
    OPS+ does scale to the ballpark and schedule. Devers OPS+ of 101 (1% above league average) translates to a .706 OPS in Oracle. Tyler Freeman has an OPS of .725, but in Coors that translates to an OPS+ of 95, or 5% below league average…
  15. notin
    I could say the same to you…
  16. notin
    I don’t disagree with their evaluations on minor leaguers. So few of them carry much trade value. And theyre not the site projecting future performance. That said, still not giving up Eyanson (or Witherspoon) for Paredes…
  17. notin
    Agreed. But who for Paredes? Not sure what Houston wants here or what Breslow is offering…
  18. notin
    Well, it does. But only the folks on base when they hit one. Alonso has 44 RBI, but 15 of them were himself who was not “on base” to be driven in. He’s driven in himself more than any of his individual teammates, although he has driven in Taylor Ward 14 times. Ward, as mentioned earlier, is having a freakishly good OBP this year. Contreras has driven in himself 13 times, but hasn’t driven in any teammate more than 8 times. Sluggers with 20 HR or more often drive in themselves more than any individual teammates. The fairest comp I use is % of baserunners driven in, which clearly favors Contreras here, 17.6% to 13.6%. For some reference, most RBI leaders drive in roughly 16-18% of all runners on base. And folks say OBP isn’t important….
  19. notin
    Paredes continues to be pull-happy with his Fenway swing. BTV gives him a surplus value of $29.2 mill, roughly the same as Anthony Eyanson. I’m not pulling that trigger just yet…
  20. notin
    Not fair to compare RBI straight up when Contreras is coming up with fewer runners on base. Alonso has come up with 214 runners on base and driven on 29 of them. Contreras has come up with 147 runners on base and driven in 26. Contreras is coming up with 1 less runner on base every game. And has just 5 fewer RBI…
  21. notin
    I hope Braiden Ward makes the 2027 team as a 4th OF / PR. Especially in ghost runner situations…
  22. notin
    Maybe. Will Skubal be traded in 4 weeks?
  23. notin
    They’re 0.5 games ahead of Boston. But they’re back in the mix and Boston isn’t? Plus thisdeal could happen in the off-season. I first mentioned Torkelson when UtahSox asked about free agent targets, and I pivoted to trade targets
  24. notin
    Why the f*** would the Sox want to add another inexperienced player into the mix?! And a left-handed one? Are we getting dazzled by 34 PA stretches from other teams now? All this and more on the next episode of “The Monster is Always Greener”…
  25. notin
    I can see reasons why and why not. Torkelson is 26, makes $4mill and has two more years until free agency. His career OPS+ is 101, making him a league average hitter. But his StatCast page is surprisingly red, and this quite often carries greater future implications than past stats. And if I know it, certainly Detroit does too. But his last two years could cost Detroit $10-15mill. Are they willing to see if he plays up to his skill in that time? If they lose Skubal, what is their plan for 2027 and beyond? BTV gives him a surplus value of $2.4mill, similar to that of Tyler Samaniego. I doubt they make that trade, BTW. But I think Boston could get their attention. I’d deal Bello here yesterday, but not sure about Detroit...
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