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Giving them away would be nutty. Trading them for fair value might not. And I think the Sox want to get Campbell back at some point. I do definitely think one player goes. Duran would be more expensive. Abreu shouldn’t be worth as much but a full year of pre-arb keeps him as a realistic option for more teams…

He is certainly a valuable player. And if a team is trying to improve via trade, the non-valuable players rarely bring back anything worthwhile. Duran’s value is largely from his offense. Over those 3 seasons, his oWAR is 12.6 and his dWAR is 2.6. 2.6 is certainly above average, but his number is largely carried by his 2.5 dWAR in 2024. His offense is largely carried by numbers vs RHP. He is still in his arb years and has not signed anything long term yet. The sites BTV uses for projections for performance and salary indicate he carries a surplus value of $70mill. He could and should be a sought after player, particularly by the Dodgers and Phillies, two teams with short term plans, high payrolls, and questionable outfields. Neither is likely to part with MLB players, but prospects that can be flipped works just as well. Abreu does not carry the same surplus value, roughly half in fact. So he is not projected to hit as well. But he is also a good trade candidate. His home runs would be missed, but let’s not go overboard there. We are talking about 20-25 plate appearances out of 450. While the power is nice, Abreu definitely brings a lot less to the plate in the 425 appearances in which the ball doesn’t leave the yard. Kristian Campbell is the X factor. Hes already been extended, really cannot play anywhere else, and it’s a safe bet the Sox didnt give up on the 23yo after 263 career PA, especially since he did win a Rookie of the Month award. The talent is there…

Can he field?

Definitely one, but it is possible both get moved. Kristian Campbell is owed lots of money and has nowhere else to play. And neither Duran nor Abreu would be given away. If you believe the BTV projections, they combine for over $100mill in surplus value. Tough to hold on to the type of OF depth the Sox have while other teams might be willing to pay for them properly…

agreed. And I doubt he will be. Especially since I predicted they would trade Duran and Abreu and they’re not going to rebuild this year. However if Bregman opts out, the Sox will need to fill up to 3 infield positions. Lowe is an interesting thought at 2b. Or at 1b. In haven’t seen him suggested before

I don’t see that level of overhaul coming, especially considering they just made the postseason…

My prediction - yes, prediction - is the Sox trade both Duran and Abreu. Campbell takes over LF, Anthony moves to RF, and Garcia goes to Worcester… I cannot predict to which teams Duran or Abreu are traded or for whom. But I will say the Duran trade will involve Dalton Rushing…

Theres really only 2 SPs worth spending on that folks on this board don’t hate. Gallen and Cease. And Gallen got off to a rough start last year. I suppose three if you like Ranger Suarez. Very talented, but seems to get hurt a lot…

On the bright side, the Sox have lots of trade candidate. Fans here might be frustrated with Abreu, but 3 WAR minimum wage outfielders with (multiple?) Gold Gloves are hardly a tough sell. Teams short on corner outfielders with limited budgets (Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington) are easy fits. Duran is certainly tradable. The Dodgers and Phillies both make sense. And a few others. (Please no “not the Dodgers! They always rip us off!” nonsense.) Should the Sox keep all of 3 of Early, Tolle, and Harrison? Chances are slim they all pan out. What about Crawford, who isnt dead? Could be an interesting offseason…

How do they earn it back and what do the Sox do until then? And what exactly did Mayer do to lose his job?

Well, the issue there is if Bregman opts out, the Sox infield is Story and…. ? Second and third base are both question marks at the moment. And he’s the only in-house candidate that doesn’t wear a utility infielder label…

I had to work Campbell in there simply because he could enter the OF mix…

The Sox could move 3 outfielders and still field a lineup. Trade away Duran, Abreu and Password? You can still start Campbell, Rafaela and Anthony…

With the exception of 2b, a lot of those can be handled in house. Even if they offload Yoshida, they still have Casas and Campbell in search of positions/roles. 2b might come from moving an OF. I’be mentioned Duran for Marte a dozen times, but other BTV Fair trades include Abreu to Detroit for Colt Keith, Campbell to Miami for Xavier Edwards, or Password to Miami for Otto Lopez. Obviously I don’t of those respective CBOs are so aligned with BTV or even looking to deal. But that Miami got mentioned twice does indicate they have depth. (Although I believe they do use Edward’s at SS.)

Breslow did praise Hicks after the trade, referring him to a high leverage bullpen arm. Granted, it’s not like he was going to trash some Player he just acquired, but most of us probably (correctly?) suspected Hicks was only included to offset some salary. Maybe Hicks can return to being the 100mph gas throwing reliever he was in St. Louis before the Giants decided for some reason to make him a starter. Yoshida, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be on Breslow’s list of favorites. I think he gets moved with lots of money for very little…

So I guess the Sox are keeping Hicks and Yoshida…

The Sox could FINALLY stop losing those salmon races…

But would Texas and Atlanta? I think they make some sense for both. But those crafty CBOs and their fancy “data analytics” sometimes just refuse to see it my way…

I had ChatGPT do home runs projections for both Alonso and Hoskins at Fenway. Interestingly, it had Hoskins hitting 27 to 35 and Alonso hitting 25 to 33. I should point out that with ChatGPT, the AI stands for “Always Inaccurate”…

Breslow will be relieved. Your (lack of) approval held up several trades. ;)

Two BTV-acceptable salary dump trades that make some sense but will not happen. 1. RHRP Jordan Hicks(2yrs $25mill) for C Sean Murphy (3 yrs $45mill). Boston gets some pop at an unlikely position. Atlanta saves $20mill and maybe can resurrect Hicks by keeping him out of the rotation. 2. DH Masataka Yoshida (2 yrs $36.4mill) and LHSP Kyle Harrison to Texas for 2b Marcus Semien (3 yrs $72mill). Texas saves roughly $35mill and gets a young, controllable SP. losing Semien (3.5 bWAR) is tough on their defense but a plus on their offense, given his recent decline..

Houck and Dobbins so far. Criswell might stick simply because he hasn’t been horrible. He might start the season as 8th man in the bullpen…

I am hoping Arizona does the following: 1. Realizes their top outfield prospects from a couple years back has produced one star (Carroll), one serviceable starter (Thomas) and one AAAA bench player (McCarthy). And also that Lourdes Gurriel cannot field. and 2. Maybe they need to move on from malcontent Marte, who has reportedly lost the faith of some teammates this past year. And maybe put some faith in young infielders Blaze Anderson and Jordan Lawlor, at least for now. Marte’s deal isnt that team-friendly any more. He is 31 and signed for 5 more years at $91mill followed by an $11.5mill player option. The contract has numerous incentives as well…

But 11 names on a 40 man roster alone is quite the crowd. 12 names if you count Criswell, who I believe is out of options as well…

I’m assuming Refsnyder retires and Duran is traded. But Eaton might be a 4th OF. Password is a trade candidate as well. I figure Alonso is a long shot but will be linked to Boston. Hoskins is a more realistic target…