moonslav59

Fixed this for you.

soxprospects.com has been pretty volatile with some rankings, lately. I'm not so sure this is as telling as it looks. They ranked him 20th in DEC 2022, which is not that long ago. He struggled in about 100 PAs at AA in 2023, and for that he dropped to 57th. (BTW, he still had a .366 OBP that summer w POR.) I'm not saying he will work out, but I think he deserves a chance in the bigs. We suck at 1B, so why not give the 25 year old a look-see?

While part of brining up Kavadas might be for "discovery," and he is Rule 5 guy, this winter, I also think he might have the same chance of doing something good as Cooper-Smith. Keep one hire gun (Cooper, the RHB,) and let's see if Kavadas can help us, this year. It's not like we can't pick up another Smith type, if Kavadas fails.

It's easy to equate Kavadas with Dalbec, but I think that is unfair. He may very well be just like him, but you never really know. He walks more than Dalbec. Fine. Keep Cooper the RHB. Replace the LHB Smith with the LHB Kavadas and play him some at 1B but more at DH. We've been using Smith and Cooper at DH, too much. REF should DH vs LHPs and some RHPs and Kavadas vs more than half of the RHPs. Our recent DHs, since Yoshi went down: 4 Smith 4 Cooper 3 O'Neill 2 Ref 1 Wong, Devers, Grissom

I'm not as angry about the JBJ trade as some, but it was a bad one. At the time, I called it a headscratcher, which caused a week long debate. I also said that Bloom must see something in DHam and or Binelas that others weren't seeing. Maybe DHam helps others get over their anger.

He has options, but he's going to get a longer look. He hit the ball hard for an out or two, today.

Sox ERA leaders (10+ IP/ under 18 noted) 0.89 Bernardino 1.54 Kelly 11.2 1.96 Whitlock (shut down rehab) 2.17 Crawford 2.17 Houck 2.41 Weissert 2.76 Criswell 3.04 Pivetta 3.33 Wink (AAA, now) 3.38 Booser 16 IP 3.38 Slaten 3.44 Martin (really turning it around after a horrible start) 3.45 Jansen 3.96 Bello 4.98 Anderson 6.55 Joely (AAA, now) Last 15 days: 0.00 Kelly & Martin 1.29 Bernardino 2.70 Booser 2.84 Houck (1.59 last 7 days) 3.57 Crawford 4.15 Criswell 4.60 Pivetta (bad first start back from IL) 2.31 last 2 starts 5.40 Anderson 6.00 Jansen 6.52 Bello (needs to find the groove) 7.36 Weissert 12.60 Slaten (got rocked, last game)

It's nice to see the Sox have 4 batters over.900, but one is 6th in team PAs (Wong) and the other just passed Reyes for 11th in PAs (Refsnyder) Updated OPS leaders .954 Refsnyder 11th in PAs .939 Devers 3rd despite missing time .932 O'Neill 4th despite missing time .916 Wong 6th due to being a catcher .857 Casas 8th and on IL (says he will be ready by June 21st) .822 Abreu 5th (did not play much, early) .791 Romy 19th (may end up near 13th by season's end) .784 Duran 1st (making an impression) .736 Yoshida 9th (on IL) .663 McGuire 10th (catcher) .620 Cooper 17th (should pass Dalbec & Reyes in PAs, soon) .617 Story (says he may be back, this year) .569 Rafaela 2nd (so many PAs for such a weak batter) .476 Smith 16th (not sure how much he plays going forward) .453 Vadlez 7th (may not get another look, this year) .305 Grissom 16th (should end up in top 12-24 in PAs, unless he never heats up)

DHam has a long way to go to prove he's a MLB player, and to try and make up a chunk of that bad JBJ for Renfroe trade, but his recent SSS stretch has been impressive: Last 11 ABs 5 hits 1 single 2 doubles 1 triple 1 homer

Wow! What a play by Rafaela!

Indeed. No 40 PA sample size should cause so much distress. Plus, it's not like he's at .450 w RISP in '24.

The announcers said Ref was a fine defender.

Good to see Pivetta looking like he found the groove, again. If Bello can get hot like he did last summer, we might have a solid 4 starters going forward. Need these bats to get more consistent.

Devers on a white hot streak.

Indeed. We've had too many black holes in our line-up, this year. 23 or more PAs: 7 players at .783 or higher. 4 players from .663 to .736 8 players below .618 The worst part is this: 5 players with 50+ PAs are between .337 and .464! (3 are in AAA, now: Dalbec, Reyes and Valdez, but still...) Feast or Famine

Nice interview with Bailey, during the game. He really knows his stuff. (Graphic shown: we were 15th in MLB in fastballs thrown from 2021-2023. This year, we are 30th.) He also expressed a lot of admiration towards Cora.

Rumors of O'Neill's demise seem to be greatly exaggerated.

More specifically, in l0 PAs in 2024. 2024: .918 OPS overall .749 RISP (40 PAs)/.880 RISP & 2 outs .865 Men on Base (81 PAs) .967 bases empty (81 PAs w pitchers not pitching around him) 2023: .851 overall .929 RISP (190 PAs, which is way more than the pace of PAs, this year)/.916 w 2 outs .887 Men on Base (318 PAs) .817 bases empty 2022: .879 overall .873 RISP (154 PAs nearly identical to overall)/.842 w 2 outs .938 w Men on Base (271 PAs) .835 bases empty Career: .856 overall .904 w RISP (much better than overall and w bases empty) .891 w 2 outs (better than carreer overall) .869 w Men on Base (better than overall & w bases empty) .844 bases empty This is about 2024 and a 40 PA sample size. Think about that.

1. I listed Coop's and Smith's recent 3-4 year sample sizes, which are much larger than Grissom's, and Smith's is worse than Grissom's last 3 year numbers. 2. We have no real alternative to Grissom at 2B, like we do with Kavadas at 1B/DH. I guess we could use Romy/DHam, but we might need Romy more at SS, if Rafaela keeps not hitting. 3. Grissom is coming back from an injury, and this could be viewed as ST'ing, for him. Give him a few more weeks, and I might be calling for a Valdez call up or aa Romy to FT role move. 4. You mentioned the decent career numbers by Coop & Smith, but both were heavily padded by good seasons pre-2021 or pre-2020, and not something they seem to be trending back towards. Smith has not been over .692 since 2020. He's at .652 in his last 787 PAs. Is that a large enough sample size? Cooper has been over .700, recently, so he does not have a horrible recent history, but at his age and looking at 4 straight years of 100% steady decline, I don't see why I should have more hope for him that Grissom, at his age. Cooper's OPS+ decline: 129 ('21)>112 ('22)>94 ('23)>83 ('24 in 83 PAs not 50.) Sure, Coop still has some hope he could regain the form of 2022. That was not too long ago, even for a 33 year old, but the longer 4 year trend is worrisome. 5. 1B is a position where offense is essential. 2B, not so much.

Many of us viewed 2024 as the season to "find out" more about a few players, to have a better idea of who will be in our longer term plans, and who will not. Of course, no 46 game sample size decides anything, and there will always be questions or doubts on any choice being made on 90% of MLB players, Nobody is 100% "durable." Nobody can be counted on to repeat what they did last year, the last 2-3 years or over their career as a whole: nobody. That being said, I do feel more comfortable with these ideas: The rotation was widely viewed as our clearcut weak area, not only in March, but for the last 4 years, as well. Houck and Crawford look like keepers in the rotation. This could be a huge development, as over the winter, we thought only Gio and Bello looked to be somewhat dependable and decent. That leads me to Bello & Gio: Bello's outlook seems a little less bright, but he started slow, last year, too. Gio looks more questionable due to the injury, but maybe not a lot more than he did before the injury. Pivetta will be a FA and might bolt, so I won't talk about his future with us, other than to say, I'd like to extend him to a reasonable deal- maybe $40M/3? I would not count on Criswell as a long term solution for the 5 slot. I hope we decide to use Whitlock in the pen for 2025 and beyond, especially since Jansen and Martin will be FAs, this fall. 2025: Gio, Houck, Crawford, Bello, _____. (I'd still love to see us add an ace, and make these 4 the 2-5 slot starters.). The pen was thought to be decent to good, in March. They have done about what was expected, but a positive development has happened, as the two FAs-to-be have been two of the RP'ers who have feel short of expectations. Many otehrs have improved their future outlook. Bernardino looks like no fluke. Slaten struggled. last night, but looks like a keeper. Weissert looks like a keeper. Kelly looks a little more promising, but his sample size is too small to say he is a keeper. Wink and Campbell have seen their stock slip over the first 46 games, and with Wink, he was so good, last year, that the drop seems large. I don't think Booser, Uwasawa and others have done anything to determi\ne they are keepers. Our catching tandem took a big step forward to start 2024. At worst, we should have a keeper to go with the big promise Teel brings to our catching future. Some other catchers in our farm system seem to be making strides, as well. Casas looks more fragole, but he is still a keeper. Grissom has done nothing to show he is our "keeper" at 2B, but I have not given up hope of his horrific small sample size. Romy looks like as good a utility infielder as anyone else, we've had. The return of Story is not to be counted on, and Rafaela's defense at SS seems good, despite too many errors. Mayer looks to be back on track with the promise he brings to SS. Devers at 3B is what it is, and he is a keeper. Our OF has made great strides. Duran is showing 2023 was not a fluke. Abreu has been hot and cold, but looks okay to good on D, and his bat looks good enough to stick. O'Neill is a FA, this winter. Rafaela looks about as questionable as he was in March. His O looks more questionable, but his D looks more believable. I was sold on Ref in March: maybe more are sold on him, now- not as a lock FT'er but a very useful 4th OF'er and DH v LHPs. Anthony offers about the same promise we had in March. I'm not worried about DH, even if we write off Yoshida and his deal, I like Ref vs LHPs and we have so many options to fill in the vs RH'd slot. A lot might depend on what Anthony, Mayer and or Teel can bring to the big club in 2025 and beyond, but we look okay, even if 2 out of 3 don't help in '25 or'26. I feel better about 2025 and beyond than I did in March, but that does not offer too much solace to watching this year's team on the field.

That could happen, too, or we could find out who our next DH will be- or could be (Kavadas,) because as the guy who is never wrong says, "Devers is not moving to 1B or DH." We don't need Kavadas to master the breaking ball or K less than 28%. We have a low bar set, already for him to beat: .525 Cooper (11Ks in 42 PAs) .262 OBP .464 Smith (13 Ks in 49 PAs) .224 OBP .377 Dalbec (28Ks in 59 PAs) .207 OBP) Total: 52 Ks in 150 PAs (not hard to beat) I realize high OBP in the minors is often not transferred to the bigs, but sometimes it is, and there does not seem to be any tell that allows us to know who can and who can't, until you try. (Dalbec has a nice OBP in the minors, as we all know.) Kavadas: .419 OBP in the minors in nothing to ignore. (It was .415 at ND) It's at .405 in AAA, so it hasn't declined much from his norm. He's also batting .307, this year (13 singles, 9 2Bs and 9 HRs) Give the guy a shot. I'm not going to say "What do we have to lose," because I don't have to say it. We are losing now, with Coop/Smith. DFA Smith and platoon Kavadas and Coop at 1B, at least.

What about them? I look more at recent 2-3, maybe 4 year sample sizes as being a better predictor than something that happened 3-4 years ago and beyond. Cooper: .807 up to 2021 (115 OPS+) .731 2022 to now (101 OPS!+) He turns 34 in December. His OPS has decline for 4 straight seasons, without interruption. He does have better recent numbers than Smith and bats RH'd. Smith has more hope, as he turns 29, soon, but his "recent numbers" are worse than Cooper's. .811 up to 2020 (117 OPS+) .658 from 2021 to now (83 OPS+) One could easily argue that continuing with these two, in hopes of an unlikely turn-around is "giving up on 2024." Kavadas has a very good eye. He's not just about hitting homers. I don't see him as having a worse outlook than the 2 we have, now. (Plus, calling up Kavadas only means parting with one of these two- likely the LH'd hitter Smith.)

Give it up, notin. This guy has his own meanings to words and just skips over words like "albeit unlikely" to tell you your opinion is "unlikely."

I don't see it that way, at all. Dalbec, Cooper and Smith have all sucked. They don't want Ref at 1B, so bringing up a guy raking it in AAA is not a desperation move or a "giving up" choice.

You might be right, but calling Kavadas up also makes sense. One factor might be that he is Rule 5, this winter, and we may want to "find out" more about him, before that day comes.