moonslav59

On the theme of trading Casas, why not go bigtime? Casas, Anthony & Grissom for Kirby (4 arbs left) and Austin Voth (RP w 1 arb year left) SP: Kirby, Nate (FA), Houck, Bello, Gio, Crawford, Criswell/Priester/Fitts/Dobbins RP: Jansen (FA), Sewald (FA), Whitlock, Slaten, Hendriks, Voth, Wink, Fulmer/Crawford/Criswell/Bernardino/Kelly/Booser/Weissert/I Campbell/Guerrero/ Mata/ Murphy/ Horn 1. Duran LF (Ref) 2. Abreu-Refsnyder RF (Campbell) 3. Yoshida DH (EValdez) 4. Devers 1B (Romy) 5. Story SS (Mayer, DHam) 6. Mayer 3B (Meidroth) 7. Wony-Teel C (Gasper) 8. DHam-Romy 2B (Campbell) 9. Rafaela CF (Duran)

You forgot Gio, too. BTW, it's Fried not Fries. I don't think we go that large and long on a FA SP'er, although he is just 30. I like the 2.85 ERA since 2020, and the 3.13 FIP is not far off. 93 GS since 2021 (3.7 seasons) is about 25 GS and 149 IP per season. I think we go for an older pitcher at 1-2 years- like Nate.

Here are the top SP'ers by fWAR that might be available, this winter: FA 3.0 Burnes 2.7 Flaherty 2.0 Snell 2.1 Fried 1.9 Eovaldi 2.7 Kikuchi 2.3 Wacha 1.8 Heaney 1.5 Severino Monty, Verlander, Scherzer, Morton Trade 4.5 Skubal DET 3.8 Crochet CWS 3.7 Kirby SEA 3.2 Gilbert SEA 2.7 Bibee CLE & Eflin 2.5 Castillo SEA 2.4 Miller SEA 2.2 Jon Gray TEX 2.0 Woo SEA 1.8 Gausman & Bassitt TOR 1.7 Taillon CHC 1.3 Sandoval LAA

It's been fun watching two of MLB's top 11 FWAR players: 7. Duran 5.5 11. Devers 4.5 Other players giving us something to cheer for: 66. Abreu 2.5 82. O'Neill 2.2 (when healthy) 120. DHam 1.6 (especially the SBs) 140. Refsnyder 1.4 (not bad for a short side platoon player) 170. Yoshida 1.1 192. Rafaela 0.9 (hurt by the drag of poor SS D) 192. Wong 0.9 Our leading pitchers have fallen off a cliff, of late, but here they are: 10. Houck 3.6 90. Crawford & Jansen 1.4 95. Pivetta & Slaten 1.3 117. Bello & Criswell 1.1 175. Martin 0.7 225. Booser 0.5 250. Whit 0.4 275. Bern 0.3

I took it that way. With Mayer's injury issues, I'm beginning to think you are right on he being the top prospect to trade.

That's all we need!

Since he's also a RHB, I think we give him every opportunity to win a job, such as RF, 2B or 3B. I doubt we view him as a DH (back-up LF'er.) Red= MLB ready by 2025 or earlier LHB control years: 9 Devers 6 Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Romero 5 Abreu, DHam 4 Duran, Casas 3 Yoshida RHB control years: 7 Rafaela 6 Campbell, Meidroth, Jh Garcia, Cespedes, Bleis, Arias, Jo Garcia, Zanetello 4 Wong, Grissom, E Valdez, Romy 3-4 Story 1 Refsnyder RHB/LHP: 6 Montgomery, Castro

Yup, and a tightening budget. Our opening day payroll went from $207M in '22 to $181 in '23 to $171, this year. Cutting $36M in 2 winters makes the GMs job very difficult.

It's impossible to predict with any accuracy how well all our returning players will do in 2025, but when it comes to how we feel about many of our players, now vs how we felt over this past winter, I'm thinking most are viewed more positively. Devers is heading for a career high in OPS+ and is still in his peak prime years. Duran was largely a big question mark over the winter, but is now a pretty sure bet. He may even get better, next year. Rafaela has shown he can play excellent CF defense and has hit .791 in his last 243 PAs, but maybe .700 to .725 is about all we can expect for a while. Wong might be the most likely player to think his OPS (.775) might decline in '25. Abreu has a career .900 OPS vs RHPs, but is under .500 vs LHPs. Refsnyder offers the perfect platoon for Abreu, as he has been a top 25 MLB hitter vs LHPs over the past 3 years. Yoshida seems to have found his groove and looks to be an .800+ batter, going forward. DHam & Romy have given us decent back-up play, this year, combining for about a .745 OPS and nearly 40 SBs in just 530 PAs.) Casas is a bit of a question mark, but staying near his .838 career OPS or better seems reasonable to expect. Grissom and Story remain the biggest question marks, along with any rookies getting the call in 2025. On the pitching front, we might be okay, if we only counted on the following pitchers for the roles listed, here: SP3-4: Gio SP3-4: Houck SP4-5: Bello SP5-6: Crawford SP7-8: Criswell & Whitlock (long relief) SP9: Priester, Fitts, Dobbins RP3: Whitlock RP4: Hendriks RP5: Slaten RP6: Fulmer RP7: Wink RP8: Kelly, Bernardino, Booser, Weissert, ICampbell, Guerrero, Mata To me, this shows the bare minimum 4 major pitching additions away from having a decent staff. SP1 SP2 Closer Set UP

Yes, in AAA. I hope they both go on to do well, just not against the Sox.

It's not rocket science or anything new. Having pitchers pitch more of their best pitches seems like a good idea, but keeping a healthy mix is important, too.

Whit looked great in his first 4 starts, too. He was a big part of our April eye-opening rotation ERA. 0.82 Pivetta (2 GS) 1.35 Crawford (6) 1.60 Houck (6) 1.65 Criswell (3) 1.96 Whitlock (4) 3.04 Bello (5) 3.50 Wink (2)

I'm not happy with JH's spending, either but the drop in payroll rankings have been, at least in part, due to several owners deciding they were going to go nutty with spending. No doubt, we have cut salary since we were ranked 3rd in 2021. 2021 was not that long ago. According to Steve the Ump, we have seen these changes in some teams' spending: '21>'22>'23>'24 BOS 180>195>176>162 (a drop of $18M from 2021) $18M is dwarfed by these teams: NYM: 167> 302 +235 NYY: 191> 294 +103 HOU: 171> 237 +66 PHI: 174> 236 +62 ATL: 134> 225 +91 TOR: 137> 222 +85 TEX: 85> 221 +136 LAD: 235> 220 (masters of hiding payroll) CHC: 150> 216 +66 STL: 135> 164 +29 SDP: 153 (but 237 in '23) We could have added $26M more to our 2024 spending budget and still been ranked 11th. (Not 12th as we are.) The main reason we dropped in the rankings is due to other owners spending more. That's not letting JH off the hook, but some context is needed. Had JH added $36M more in spending from 2021 to 2024, we'd still be 10th. $40M more would place us 9th, behind the Dodgers, who have so much deffered money, it's not even funny. $45M more gets us to 6th (behind the Braves) $55M more gets us close to PHI but still 5th. We'd have to be spending about $60M more to have kept our 3rd place ranking from 2021.

So, we do throw a lot of fastballs and hard sinkers. It's not like all we throw are sliders, sweepers and change-ups.

True, but some, even when left in longer, were not all that bad: Crawford 8/18 5.1 IP 3 ER (Horn let his runner score on an HR) 8/13 5.1 IP 4 ER (No hitter through 5 IP, then BOOM, and Booser let his runner score.) Had Crawford been yanked after 5, we'd have said it was a good GS. Bello has had 7 straight okay to decent starts with no more than 3 ERs allowed.40.1 IP 3.57 ERA, but the 4.80 FIP suggests some luck. Houck has gone 6 or more IP in 3 straight starts (2.41 ERA in 18.2 IP) Pivetta has been up and down: 7IP 0ER 6.2 4ER (let up 2B and run in 7th) 6.0 0ER 2.2 7ER 6.2 3ER (2 HRs in the 6th) 4.2 2ER 5.0 3ER (HR in the 5th)

Yes, and word was that had Gio not gotten hurt, Houck would be the odd man out, so it looks to me like someone(s) really likes Whit as a starter.

Well, Whitlock replacing $16M Jansen as the closer would be a big savings, too. Hendriks would be a cheaper Chris Martin, too.

I think the pen being so god-awful has forced Cora to stick with the starters longer than maybe he wanted to do. It seems like many of our most recent starts looked good after 4 or 5 IP, then the wheels came off. The D is looking almost as bad as in April.

I could be wrong, but I think we had Whitlock ahead of Houck on the rotation depth chart, which to me says Whitlock was no emergency starter, this year. I'm not sure about 2025, but I hope they finally learn the lesson.

How often do they throw 2 seamers?

That could well happen, but I would place him as our 3rd best SP'er going into 2025: 1. Houck 2. Bello 3. Gio 4. Criswell 5. Crawford (I hope we stop thinking of Whitlock as SP'er depth, once and for all.)

It might help, if our guys could throw unhittable fastballs, but your point is well-taken.

You don't think 2B or 3B will work?

I don't disagree. I will say, we are still losing games due to poor D as well as a poor pen. Brez did try to stock the pen, last winter and at the deadline, but not many did well, and Slaten got hurt. He added these guys and some were supposed to be okay to good: Slaten Weissert I Campbell Criswell (uses as a SP, a lot) Hendriks Booser Horn Deadline: Garcia & Sims The Martin step back and Slaten injury really hurt, but you need to plan for that. I get it. Brez cam up short, here, too.

I guess Haniger would offset some of Yoshida's cost, and he does bat RH'd, but he's 33 and has 2 straight seasons under .640. Garver is another 33 y/o RHB, but he offers more hope on O and could back up Wong until Teel is ready. I think maybe Casas, Abreu & Yoshida plus cash for Miller, a RPer and Garver might do it.