moonslav59

If you had to guess, if and when healthy, does he win the 2B job from DHam/Valdez/Romy/Yorke in 2025? (assuming Story at SS not DHam/Romy/Mayer)

Here is a list or players on teams that might be sellers. It does not mean they are available or worth trading for: (In order of games behind WC slot and with 2024 fWAR 1.0+ pitchers/ 2.0+ batter w some notables under 2.0) -27.5 CWS 3.9 Crochet 2.7 Fedde 1.2 Robert Jr. 0.9 DeJong -17.5 OAK 1.8 M Miller 3.0 Rooker 1.4 Bleday -16.5 MIA 1.4 Chisholm -16.0 COL 1.7 Feltner 2.9 B Doyle 2.2 McMahon 2.1 Tovar -12.5 LAA 1.3 Sandoval 1.2 T Anderson 1.0 Soriano -9.5 TOR 2.0 Kikuchi 2.0 Bassitt 1.6 Gausman 0.2 Berrios 2.1 Varsho 2.0 I Kiner-Falefa 1.5 Vlad -7.5 TEX 1.9 J Gray 1.7 Nate 1.4 Heaney 1.4 Robertson 1.3 K Yates 3.2 Josh Smith 2.5 C Seager 2.5 M Semien -7.0 DET 3.4 Skubal 2.3 R Olsen 2.1 Flaherty 1.3 Mize 3.0 R Greene -6.0 WSH 2.5 Gore 1.8 Irvin 1.7 T Williams 1.5 M Parker 1.1 Floro 2.2 CJ Abrams 1.8 L Garcia Jr 0.6 Winker -5.5 TBR 1.6 Eflin 1.5 Littell 1.3 Pepiot 1.0 Bradley 3.0 Paredes 0.4 Arozarena Possible: -3.5 CHC 2.5 Imanaga 1.8 Steele 1.5 Taillon 1.3 B Brown 0.9 Leiter Jr 2.2 M Busch 2.0 Hoerner 2.0 Happ 1.4 Suzuki 1.2 Swanson 0,8 Bellinger -3.0 SFG 2.9 L Webb 1.0 R Walker 3.5 P Bailey 2.4 M Chapman 2.4 H Ramos 1.1 Yaz -3.0 CIN 2.3 H Greene 1.6 N Martinez 1.3 Lodolo 1.0 F Cruz 4.4 E de la Cruz 2.4 India -1.5 PIT 1.7 M Keller 1.5 J Jones 1.2 L Ortiz 2.0 B Reynolds 1.7 O Cruz

What would be the cost of a TOTR rental? IMO, not a top 3, and maybe not a top 5 or 6, either.

I think rentals might be gotten for Paulino or Casstro or maybe Lugo + Valdez/Jordan.

I'm a big fan of Abreu, and I loved the Vaz trade, but I also think other GMs like him, too. We appear to have some blocked prospects that are ML or near ML ready and some young ML'ers we could package together to get a better player than Abreu, but who bats RH'd. We lose O'Neill, this winter, so it would help for 2025 and beyond, too. Abreu plus a combination of 1-3 from these guys for a RHB who plays RF: Valdez McGuire Yorke Lugo Meidroth Paulino Castro Romero Kavadas Hickey, Jordan, Wikelman, Guerrero, ICoffey, T Miller, McDonough, Decker Mata (out of options and would be nice to trade, soon) Winckowski (for the right guy, and if he is still half in the doghouse)

I'm worried about Casas for 2024. While DSmith has been doing better, improving on him would be nice. I still think SP, SP, SS/2B ans RP are higher priorities, I'd be fine with an add like him. If JH would agree to a budget bump, we could probably get a SP'er and Turner from TOR without giving up top prospects. (AAV without pro-rating 2024) $22M x 2.3 Gausman $22M x 1.3 Bassitt $19M x 4.3 Berrios $13M x 0.3 Turner $10M x 0.3 Kikuchi Rentals Kikuchi and Turner should not cost a top 6-9 prospect, well maybe Fitts or Sandlin. Getting Berrios and Turner would be costly, and Jose just turned 30, so I worry about 4 years from ages 30-34. Bassit is 35, but 1.3 years is not too scary and shouldn't be too costly. Gausman and Turner would likely cost us Campbell or Cespedes or maybe Cespedes & Bleis plus others, minimum, and might cost a top 3. I'd prefer a deal like these to Vladdy.

Yes, I basically said that in my last paragraph. I would like to see us do it, this winter. Any top 3 prospect plus 2-3 prospects from #7 down for a solid SP with 3+ years of control without going over age 31. I might even be okay with trading a top 4 plus Bleis or Cespedes and Fitts or Sandlin for an ace with 3+ years of control. That's a 1-4 + a 5-6 + a 7+.

No, and I went a few times 5-50 years ago.

Agreed. In terms of new pitcher additions, we swung and missed on many dumpster dives and mid-level signings and trades, after the Sale/Nate extensions. Here are the ones who worked out okay or better, some "borderline" okay. (We missed on the "timing" with Perez I and II and Springs.) Trades: Pivetta & Winckowski Rule 5: Whitlock FAs: Wacha, Hill, Paxton, Criswell (Perez had the same ERA as Bello has.) Our homegrowns have done better: Houck, Crawford, Bello

When we draft a pitcher in the first round, I will be convinced, but you are correct in noting a change was made. We did still draft an everyday player in 2 of the top 4 picks (1 and 4.) The lower picks are not as significant, and "best available" is not such a clear thing. They all have very similar value, with some having more "sure value" vs others with more "upside value." (Pitchers seem to have more upside value.) I like this draft, on paper.

Agreed. Both Bleis and Cespedes have too much upside potential value to trade, now. I also like keeping Anthony and Teel over Mayer and Campbell, but I'd like to keep all 6. You have to give to get, and I'd trade any of the top 6, plus 2-3 from the below #6 prospects for a solid SP'er with 3 or more years of team control below age 30-31. Those type of deals are way more common during the winter- not at deadlines.

Agreed. He has not come close to the numbers he put up in 2021. He may come close, someday, but he's too risky. Plus, we have a 1Bman (Casas) and DH (Yoshida/Ref/Valdez/O'Neill) It would make more sense to get a big RHB that plays middle IF or even OF, if we swap out Ref or Abreu plus prospects for a better RHB one.

Why 2B over SS? A DHam-Romy (Valdez/Grissom) works okay at 2B. While using Rafaela at SS works well, in terms of getting ABs for Duran, O'Neill, Abreu and Refsnyder, both Abreu and Ref bat LH'd, so we kinda need Rafaela in CF vs LHPs. In theory, we could not spend a penny or a prospect on a RHB in the OF. We could either add a SS (RHB) and play Rafaela in CF FT, or just swap Ref or Abreu for an equal OF'er who bats RH'd. I'd add a few more to your list of acceptable SP'er additions, and I'd shoot for 2 SP'ers aove the "depth level." I realize we won't do that, but with so many of our SP'er, already maxing out on career IP in a season, we need to manage their workloads, going forward. If we want to win in 2024, resting Houck, Crawford and Bello seems to go against that, but we may need to do just that to get to the playoffs with out 3 burnt out starters. We may want a 6 man rotation for the last 2 months: Houck Nate (Crochet) Crawford 1 from Eflin/Kikuchi/Anderson/Flaherty/Bassitt/Irvin/Sandoval/Fetner/ TWilliams/Fedde/Greene/Gore/Olson/Littell/JJones Pivetta Bello (Criswell as the 7th SP'er and "depth.)

It helps that JH allowed DD to sign Price to the biggest contract in Sox history by about 50% (until Devers.) JH also allowed him to sign Sale & Nate (over Betts.) JH also allowed the Porcello and Beckett extensions and Lackey signing. I do not think he allowed Bloom to go higher than what was offered to Eflin and Nate, and we missed out on both. Chances are, there might have been others like those two, but nothing gigantic.

To me, this was a major reason we struggled from 2019-2023. (In 2019, we just extended Sale and Nate: we added no other SP'ers.)

I'd say $7-14M is midlevel. ($10M Richards, Kluber and $7M for Wacha.) Paxton ($10M/2,) Perez and Hill were upper level dumpster dives who did okay. Wink worked okay, too. Cheapies: Weber, Mazza, Brewer, Godly, Hart, Kickham, Triggs, Peacock, Seabold did not work out well.

For one fan, myself, I don't go to Fenway, because it is not comfortable for a large guy. It has nothing to do with high ticket prices. I am not speaking for others. I know the prices keep many fans away, but I've paid hundreds of dollars for certain concert tickets, over the last few years- some in the nose-bleed sections.

We may see Devers walked more as the season ends, but I think we make up for the lack of protection by having a balanced line-up that can have all 9 batters over .700. Also, while we don't seem to have big name players to protect Devers in the line-up, on paper we have more than one top 30-60 batters to hit in front of or behind. 6. Devers .974 27. Refsnyder .860 (could bat after Devers, if Cora puts him there v LHPs) 31. O'Neill .839 (offers decent support if batting next, after Devers v RHPs) 45. Duran .818 (has to bat leadoff) 54. Abreu .810 (.880 career OPS v RHPs, so could protect Devers, nicely.) 56. Wong .809 There are 30 teams in MLB. Each team should have an average of 2 top 30 batters in the rankings. Some have zero or 1. The Sox have 6!!!! There is something to be said about having a 1-2 combo like Manny & Ortiz or Jusge & Soto, but I like what we have with balance, too. Top OPS in MLB (190+ PAs:) 6. Devers

So true, Hugh. It's hard for organizations to project these players. Plus, Duran was tweaking his hitting approach, so often, it was hard to keep track. How long do you give a kid, after a tweak. It's almost like it's a whole new prospect, everytime a major tweak is made. I'm glad we kept most of these kids, and did not chase after some sort of miracle glory run. When Houck was down, not many of us would have been upset had we traded him with a package of prospects like 1-3 from Duran, Abreu, Wong, Crawford, Kelly and others for a proven SP'er nearing the end of his prime years. Houck, Crawford, Duran, Abreu and others were "suspects," not long ago. Sure, some never work out. In fact, many don't. We've had our fair share of Jeter Downs and Middlebrooks, but patience is still a virtue, despite the "me now, now, NOW" movement. It took a while to build up our young foundation and farm, and that's not a diss on DD. (I love what he did.) We are seeing the results of DD, Bloom and Brez's foundation building in action. The sacrifice was great, and it was painful. The 2021 season was not enough to ease the tide of angst and anger of Sox fans. 5 years of near uninterrupted suffering. Despite major, season-ending injuries to Giolito & Whitlock, our pitching staff is putting up numbers not seen in a very long time. The best news is that all of our best pitchers, besides Gio, Pivetta & Jansen are under team control for many more years. 2 years: Whitlock, Hendriks (incl option) 3 years: Houck 4 years: Crawford, Wink 5 years: Slaten, Bernardino, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Booser, I Campbell, Murphy, Mata 6 years: Bello Our everyday player set-up looks very nice (2 or more years of control:) 2: 3: Dalbec 4: Duran, Casas, Wong, Story (incl option), Romy 5: Abreu, DHam, Valdez, Grissom 7: Rafaela 9: Devers The short list of players losing control in 3 months or 1.3 years: After '24: Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill, DSmith, Anderson After '25: Refsnyder, McGuire, Westbrook The upgrade of the farm has already been outlined.

Nice to see Duran get the spotlight shown on him. So many of us were ready to move on from him.

MLB OPS Rankings (190+ PAs) 273 Players with 190+ PAs (30 teams x 9 batters-270) 1.112 Judge 1.036 Ohtani .985 Soto .983 Harper .979 Tucker .974 Devers .960 Ozuna .956 G Henderson .941 T Turner 18. Betts .892 27. Refsnyder .860 (Top 1/9th in MLB!) 31. O'Neill .839 37. Schwarber .830 45. Duran .818 54. Abreu .810 56. Wong .809 58. JD M .806 102. DHam .741 (above the mean) 147. Pham .706 162. Yoshida .696 169. Rafaela .692 171. D Smith .690 (in the middle third of MLB) 175. Dubon .689 182. Renfroe .685 (lower 1/3) 191. J Turner .678 200. Verdugo .670 230. Rizzo .630 233. Margot .627 247. Bogey .597 254. Espinal .585 267. Kike .557 273. Vazquez .514

MLB OPS Rankings (190+ PAs) 273 Players with 190+ PAs (30 teams x 9 batters-270) 1.112 Judge 1.036 Ohtani .985 Soto .983 Harper .979 Tucker .974 Devers .960 Ozuna .956 G Henderson .941 T Turner 18. Betts .892 27. Refsnyder .860 (Top 1/9th in MLB!) 31. O'Neill .839 37. Schwarber .830 45. Duran .818 54. Abreu .810 58. JD M .806 102. DHam .741 (above the mean) 147. Pham .706 162. Yoshida .696 169. Rafaela .692 171. D Smith .690 (in the middle third of MLB) 175. Dubon .689 182. Renfroe .685 (lower 1/3) 191. J Turner .678 200. Verdugo .670 230. Rizzo .630 233. Margot .627 247. Bogey .597 254. Espinal .585 267. Kike .557 273. Vazquez .514

Sox are 53-42. In 2021: 57-38 2018: 66-29 2017: 53-42 2016: 54-41 2013: 58-37 2009: 56-39 2008: 55-40 2007: 56-39 2005: 53-42 2004: 52-43 2003: 55-40

Not much new on the injury report. Casas "took soft toss and swung off a tee." I'm not sure he'll be ready by the deadline. (Good thing D Smith has stepped it up.) Martin is still "feeling discomfort." Grissom rehabs in Woo. Mata throws 2-3 innings on Sunday, and the decision will be made on what to do with the out-of-options pitcher. Slaten began his 15 day IL on July 12th. No word on him. Hendriks threw a bullpen session last Wednesday. Not sure when his ETA is, but August 1st seems like a stretch, now. OUT: Giolito, Story, Whitlock, Murphy

OPS by Pitchers (50+ IP) hunt .538 Wehunt .541 Dean .548 Ingrassia .552 E R-C .607 Dobbins .620 J Paez .630 Mullins .633 Olds .645 Early .661 Cohen .683 I Coffey .685 Webb .693 Duffy .695 Alexander (81.1 IP most on farm) .704 Rogers .748 Jackson .756 Gambrell .788 Fitts 35-50 IP .447 Valera .560 Sansone .570 Olivarez .572 Landry .591 O'Donnell .593 Penrod .599 Carlson .634 Fogell .644 Luetge .683 Stebens .685 Bastardo .694 Shugart .695 Guerrero .696 Kwiak. .699 Wikelman