moonslav59

You make great points, but it is very hard to win without near top pitching. Our staff is doing very well, this year, and it's no coincidence we are in the race, as a result, but we have too many SP'ers nearing or already over their career high in IP, and we have 66 games to go before even thinking about them giving us quality playoff innings. We lose Pivetta, this winter, and although he has been a 4/5 SP'er with us since late 2020, he's been our best innings eater, by far. We also lose our best closer since Uehara. One can say we got lucky with the homegrown pitchers we have, now, and I don't see the next Houck or Crawford joining the staff in 2025, so where do we get a couple pitchers to keep us in the top 10 in MLB, minimum? I agree, pitchers are major risks, but we will be having duplicate values at several everyday positions from 2025 to beyond 2026. We can't play everybody, even if 2 are hurt all year. Wong & McGuire ('25) then Teel ('26) Casas Story, Mayer, Campbell plus DHam/Yorke/Cespedes Devers Duran Rafaela, Anthony Abreu, Refsnyder (to 2025) then Bleis (2026 and beyond) Yoshida, Valdez/Lugo Even if we dump Yoshida, Valdez and lose Ref, I'm looking at 13-14 players for 9 slots and a couple key sub roles. We can trade 1-3 good players for pitching. If Campbell plays OF, we'll have 5 OF'ers for 2026, not counting Bleis (Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell.) If Campbell plays 2B, we'll have 3 middle IF'er (Story, Mayer, Campbell) and 3+ offering decent depth, not counting Cespedes & Zanetello (DHam, Yorke, Romy, plus Meidroth.) If we lose Yoshida, we might have Valdez, Lugo, Jo Garcia, Jordan, Yorke, Meidroth. Maybe Campbell ends up at DH.

Then, why isn't MVP's name on the list?

It's not like teams aren't paying attention to recent events, but I'm also not so sure a player's value changes much over a 60 PA sample size- good or bad.

I think we all would, but until we see JH spend again, I'm done hoping, wishing or expecting it to happen. Also, the best option might be to do both.

What would it take to get Skubal? He has 2 arb years left. BTV has his value at 100. If JH would open his wallet, we could lessen the return package by taking on Baez's mega bum deal ($73M/2 after 2024) or someone line Canha, who will be owed $4M at the deadline, but the Baez deal is not going to be taken. My guess is it would take ... Anthony or Keel + Mayer of Campbell + A prospect or two from below #6. or Anthony, Mayer, Keel or Campbell + 2 from Abreu (if Anthony not taken) Cespedes, Bleis, Fitts, Sandlin or Perales

I assume this is your no trade list. LOL

Agreed. I think he has 1 or 2 hot streaks in him.

I don't have full access to the BTV site, but here are some trade values of some Sox players: 54.2 Mayer 53.2 Anthony 31.4 Teel 25.4 Abreu 20.4 Criswell 18.1 K Campbell 13.3 Bleis 12.1 Bernardino 10.5 Winckowski 8.9 Cespedes 7.0 Rafaela 5.7 O'Neill & Perales 4.2 Romero 3.8 Yorke 3.7 I Campbell 3.2 E R-C 2.7 Wikelman 2.5 Meidroth 2.3 Castro 2.1 Fitts, Monegro & Dobbins 2.0 Mullins & Jordan 1.9 Jo & Jh Garcia 1.7 Penrod 1.6 Valdez & Bastardo 1.6 Paez 1.5 Lugo 1.3 Rogers 1.1 Guerrero 0.8 Mata -25 Yoshida A few targets? 100 Skubal 58.5 Crochet 39.5 Chisholm 36.4 Roberts 33.8 C Mize 21.6 Rooker 20.9 Fedde 8.5 Flaherty 6.1 Vlad 5.3 Kikuchi 4.8 Nate 3.3 Gomber -2.4 Canha

Yes, correct. My bad.

And SEA is not a lock. Their run differential is +19 to Texas' +9.

My guess is others on the list violate said rule.

Looking at the Sox pitching staffs since 2003, there are some eye-opening numbers, here... With 66 games still to play, the staff already has a higher fWAR (13.0) than 5 Sox teams (2012, 14, 15, 20 and 22.) 3.61 ERA is the best in 22 seasons (so far.) 3.73 2017 3.75 2018 3.79 2013 3.87 2007 (2004 was 4.19) 3.77 xFIP is #1 3.87 2014 3.89 2013 3.91 2017 3.92 2018 (2004 was 4.21) ERA- 82 2017 83 2007 84 2018 85 2024 89 2004 & 2008 90 2013 SIERA 3.79 the 2024 Sox are tops WHIP 1.19 the 2024 Sox (1.25 is 2nd '18 & '17) K/BB 3.4 2017 3.3 2024 3rd in K-BB% 3.0 2018 The 2024 Sox have the second lowest BAbip in 22 years, despite having awful defense behind them. UnEarned Runs: 98 2004 78 2003 73 2021 66 2010 & 2022 62 2014 60 2019 59 2024 Lead MLB & projects to about the second worst in 22 years. 58 2023 57 2011 55 2015 54 2016 53 2017 52 2005 & 2006 49 2012 43 2013 41 2009 39 2018 & 2008 (26 in 2020: prorated to about 65)

That is disputable! No cases are ever laid to rest on this site!

What "rule" prevents Mayer from joining "the list."

I don't know enough to have an opinion, but this does sound concerning. Thanks for the insights.

Texas did win 7 of 9 going into the AS break vs TBR, LAA and HOU. They have 11 games before the deadline, and they could get into the race, if they go 7-4 or better: 3 v BAL 4 v CWS 3 @ TOR 1 of 3 @STL (at deadline) They are 7.5 from the last WC slot, and 5 teams are between them, including the Sox and HOU.

Maybe Heaney, who we apparently kicked the tires on, before (twice?) (Bloom kicked the Eflin tires, but I'm not sure Brez thinks as highly of him.)

I think it is of approx value to get him, but yes, it depends on what the other GM wants.

For Crochet, maybe they take Anthony + [Fitts/Sandlin] + [Yorke/Lugo/Meidroth] +[Castro/Paulino/E R-C]

I'm not sure the deadline is the time to make big deals like this, but if the CWS are looking to trade Crochet, now, then we should make a strong offer. I doubt we do, but we have to face the music, someday, IMO. Our top 6 prospects are all non pitchers, and our 9 batting slots look pretty solid for 2025. Not that some cannot be improved upon, especially a big RHB and a more dependable middle IF'er, but this is not too shabby: C: Wong, McGuire (Teel, if not traded) 1B: Casas 2B: Story, DHam/Grissom/Romy/Yorke/Vadlez... SS: Mayer, if not traded, Story/DHam/Romy 3B: Devers LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Yoshida) CF: Rafaela (Duran) Anthony, if not traded RF: Abreu (Refsnyder) Anthony, if not traded DH: Yoshida, Refsnyder, Valdez (Lugo) Top 6 prospects: Anthony (We look pretty set in the OF, especially with LHBs) Mayer (We need help in middle IF more than OF and C, although Mayer is another LHB.) Teel (Teams always need catchers, and Teel might be able to DH or play 1B. Yet another LHB.) Campbell (Finally, a RHB, but not a plus defender at 2B/SS. If he ends up in the OF, we may have to trade Abreu or Refsnyder. Anthony is also in the OF mix.) Cespedes (RHB and position?) and Bleis (RHB and CF)- My position on these two is that we'd be selling low on them. Teams no longer value faraway prospects as highly as they once did. I tend to view them as the guys who will add minor league depth after we trade Anthony, Mayer or Campbell. Any prospect below #6 is open season, but trading pitching prospects have to be in a package that brings back a better pitcher.

Could we get one of your trio of pitchers for Lugo + Valdez/Paulino/Castro/Meidroth/Jordan? Maybe Yorke, Lugo and Meidroth could get us Flaherty or Fedde?

These might be our best targets at the deadline (2024 fWAR): Note: this is not the list I think we might realistically make strong offers for. SP 3.9 Crochet 3.4 Skubal 2.7 Fedde 2.5 Gore (not likely available) 2.3 R Olsen 2.1 Flaherty 2.0 Kikuchi 2.0 Bassitt 1.9 J Gray 1.7 Nate 1.8 Irvin 1.7 T Williams 1.6 Eflin 1.6 Gausman 1.7 Feltner (3.99 FIP) 1.4 Heaney 1.5 Littell 1.5 M Parker 1.3 Sandoval 1.3 Pepiot 1.2 T Anderson 1.3 Mize 1.0 Bradley (not likely available) 1.1 Floro 1.0 Soriano SS 2.2 CJ Abrams (not likely available) 2.1 E Tovar (Good on D) 2.0 I Kiner-Falefa 1.4 Chisholm (2B) 0.9 DeJong (2B) 2B (see SS, too) 2.5 M Semien (not likely available) RHB 3.0 Rooker (corner OF) 2.9 B Doyle (CF) Rafaela at SS FT in 2024. 1.5 Vlad (1B) 1.2 Roberts Jr (CF) Rafaela at SS FT in 2024. 0.4 Arozarena (LF) RP 1.8 M Miller 1.4 Robertson 1.3 K Yates Possibles on borderline sellers: SP 2.9 L Webb (not likely available) 2.3 H Greene (not likely available) 2.5 Imanaga (not likely available) 1.8 Steele 1.7 M Keller 1.5 J Jones 1.6 N Martinez 1.5 Taillon 1.3 B Brown 1.3 Lodolo 1.2 L Ortiz 1.0 F Cruz 0.9 Leiter Jr (not likely available) SS 4.4 E de la Cruz (Not likely available at age 22) 1.7 O Cruz (LHB who is not likely available at age 25) 1.2 Swanson 2B 2.4 India 2.0 Hoerner RP 1.0 R Walker RHB 2.4 M Chapman (3B, maybe 1B?) 2.4 H Ramos (OF, not likely available) 2.0 Happ (LF switch hitter) 2.0 B Reynolds (LF switch hitter) 1.4 Suzuki (RF)

I missed the fact he is a LHB. Pass, although the guy is a good defender.

I'm thinking the same for the Rule 5 eligible Yorke, or we move Valdez, the LHB. We may also look to trade Lugo, who is also Rule 5 eligible. Castro & Paulino are, too, but may not be selected, if left unprotected. I just listed over 10 players who play or pretend to play 2B/SS. It's time to weed some out of the system and try to go more quality over quantity, there.

Valdez is worse. Yorke is not very good on D. I'm not sure KC's D puts him behind either. I still think we roll with the DHam/Romy platoon, until it shows it no longer works. A Mayer call-up and Story return to health would squeeze that platoon out. Using Rafaela at SS or 2B, so we can play Duran, Refsnyder and Abreu (Anthony/KC/Lugo) in the OF in 2025 might also squeeze out DHam/Romy from starting roles. Ideally, we should improve on Rafaela, DHam and Romy at middle infield. We should look to make Rafaela the near FT CF'er, anyway. We could possibly trade Abreu and try to bring back O'Neill of the next 1 year guy in line with O'Neill, Duvall, Renfroe. Since Campbell bats RH'd, he might have a leg up on being added to the 40 and 26 as a LF'er and back-up or platoon 2Bman with DHam, assuming Grissom continues fizzling out. We need reliable/solid middle infielders not massive quantities of wings and prayers or flawed in certain areas: Story- injured most of the time and struggling at the plate when healthy. Grissom- injured and struggling since mid 2023 on O. Questions of his D moving from SS to 2B. Rafaela- not great on infield D and is much better in CF. Bat is still in question, too. Valdez- sucks on D and batting vs LHPs DHam- not great on D and struggles vs LHPs Romy- not great on D and struggles vs RHPs Mayer- still in AA K Campbell- sill in AA Yorke- in AAA, but struggled for a long time, until his recent promotion to AAA Meidroth, Sogard, Westbrook (sucks vs RHPs,) Alvarez look to be minor league depth That's close to 10 guys with some hopes- some slim to very slim.