moonslav59

So, according to MLBTR projections: Snell $182M/5 is $22M over the $160M/5 call. Kikuchi $63M/3 is $3M over the $60M/3 call. It's hard to tell if costs are going up a lot, or not. Who will be the next signing? Soto? Burnes or Fried? Bregman or Adames? Teoscar or Scott? Flaherty, Manaea, Nate, Martinez, Pivetta or Severino? Alonso, Walker, Santander or O'Neill Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes,

I'm glad Snell went somewhere else. I'd rather get Fried, Burnes or trade for someone. I'd rather get 2 from Nate, Pivetta, Flaherty, Severino, Martinez, Manaea than Snell, or one plus Scott. If we end up being shut out, I won't be crying about Snell.

With SEA, everyone is available for the right price.

If we have $70M to spend and not go over the tax line ($90M to second line,) what combination of FAs do you choose, base on MLBTR's AAV? 46 x 13 Soto 32 x 5 Snell 29 x 7 Burnes 27 x 6 Adames 26 x 6 Fried 23 x 5 Flaherty 22 x 2 Nate 21 x 1 Pivetta & N Martinez 20 x 3 Manaea 20 x 3 Teoscar 17 x3 Severino 15 x 1 Buehler 14 x 4 T Scott 14 x 3 O'Neill 14 x 1 Yates 12 x 1 Bieber 11 x 4 Hoffman 10 x 3 Holmes 10 x 2 Jansen 9 x 3 Estevez 7.5 x 2 Higgy At $70M, we could go Soto, Severino and Higgy, or Soto, Scott & Jansen Burnes, Fried & Scott or Burnes, Fried, Holmes & Higgy (kinda over) Fried, Pivetta, Scott & Higgy or Fried, Scott, Hoffman, Holmes & Higgy at $90M, WOW! Soto, Fried & Scott or Soto, Nate, Scott & Higgy Burnes, Fried, Teoscar & Scott Burnes, Fried, Scott, Hoffman & Higgy

It does seem like we can improve, greatly with 2 major signings and 1 major trade. If we make it 4 major deals, we could be a top 4-5 favorite. Burnes or Fried Soto or Bregman.Adames (move Devers to 1B if not Soto) Tanner Scott Trade Casas (if Devers moved to 1B) and/or Abreu and others for a SP

MLBTR reports the Sox may be out to get two top SP'ers, this winter. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/latest-on-red-sox-rotation-plans.html I'd love it! Maybe sign 2 and trade for a righty bat not pitching.

They seem very close, to me.

Mt new ranking: 1. Detroit 10-1 2. Buffalo 9-2 3. KC 10-1 4. Minn 9-2 5. PHI 9-2 6. GB 8-3 7. PIT 8-3 8. BAL 8-4 9. HOU 7-5 10. LAC 7-4 and WSH 7-5

Agreed. Soto will be 26 for the full 2025 season. That is still "pre-Prime." Then, he has 5 years of "Prime" at ages 27-31. That's 6, total, before we may start seeing some decline. My guess is the decline will be slow, and his ages 32-34 seasons will be very good, and 35-36 decent. He may even be okay from 37-39 or 40.

Would SEA take Yoshida and Casas for Castillo & Garver? Garver could be the back-up Catcher, until Teel arrives, and DH some, but he is really just a salary dump by SEA. I'm wondering, if we could make the deal without Garver.

Woo will be 25 and has 5 years of control. This is the type of guy we need. Despite allowing 27 HRs in 843 PAs against, he still has an amazing .628 OPS Against (.267 OBP against) He has a .664 OPSA on the road, so the big home park thing might be overblown. Woo had about 50 more IP than Crochet from 2023 to 2024. Crochet's OPSA is .635, which is about the same as Woo. He's allowed 21 HRs in 911 PAs and a .288 OBP. He is 25. Both look like nice "gets," and as MVP suggested, they be nice as our #2 behind Burnes or Fried. Burnes/Fried Woo/Crochet Houck Bello Crawford/Giolito

He's 26, so maybe they let it slide.

Hell, let's go to age 41 and a 16 year deal!

It's hard to know who the best choice is for a top of rotation pitcher. Burnes is only 30, but he dropped off a bit, this season. 190+ IP for 3 straight years is a nice plus. Just over 900 IP for his career makes one think he's not at the end of the line. He still finished 18th in fWAR and 14th in ERA-. ERA- 74 Burnes 77 Woo & Snell 78 B Miller & Fried 79 Flaherty 80 Wacha 84 Lorenzen 87 Manaea 88 Crochet 94 Nate 96 L Castillo '23-'24 62 Snell 72 Fried 76 Burnes 78 Wacha 89 Castillo 90 Lorenzen, B MIller & Nate 93 Manaea 94 P Lopez 97 Flaherty 100 Pivetta

How about this? Sign Soto to $650M/15 and Tanner Scott to $64M/4. Trade Yoshida (owed $56M/3) & Meidroth for Arenado (owed $59M/2) Trade Casas & Mayer for Gilbert Opening Day 26: SP: Gilbert, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito RP: Scott, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Criswell, Guerrero, Wink, Wilson or Bernardino 1. Duran CF 2. Soto LF 3. Story SS 4. Devers 1B 5. Campbell 2B 6. Anthony RF 7. Abreu-Refsnyder DH 8. Arenado 3B 9. Wong C Bench: (Ref/Abreu,) Catcher, Rafaela, DHam or Grissom

They both have an 88 ERA- over the last 2 years, and Woo has more IP. It's a close call on value, IMO. Age & years of control make Woo the clear pick, to me.

I would not give more than Abreu & DHam for Crochet. Okay, maybe I'd add Wink.

Woo over Crochet is a no-brainer. 3 more years of control Better 2023-2024 I'd give Casas + Wink for Woo.

15 years goes to age 40. Maybe the last 2-3 years will be a burden- maybe not. If it takess 15: do it.

Pivetta will be 32 when the season starts. I think he gets $57M/3 or $46M/2

Ages 23-26: Manny .957 OPS (143 OPS+) Soto .926 OPS (160 OPS+) Ages 27-37: Manny 1.026 OPS (162 OPS+) Soto: if he signs with us, I hope he ends up like Manny's 27-37 years.

Right. I only meant as a player.

My end of season rankings: 1. Anthony 2. Campbell 3. Mayer 4. Teel 5. Montgomery 6. Arias 7. Perales 8. Cespedes 9. Bleis 10. Meidroth 11. Jh Garcia 12. Fitts 13. Sandlin 14. Dobbins 15. Tolle 16. Jo Garcia 17. Romero 18. Cason 19. Early 20. Valera 21. E Rod 22. Monegro 23. D Reyes 24. Paez 25. Mullins 26. Wehunt 27. Riemer 28. Ingrassia 29. Neely 30. Clarke 31. Guerrero 32. Ju Gonzales 33. Taylor 34. Castro 35. Penrod, & Wikelman

I think Manny is a better comp than Papi, except for the L-R thing.

soxprospects.com posted their final 2024 rankings: no big surprises. Anthony remains #1. Campbell went from #22 in April to #2. Mayer went from 3 to 2, more out of Campbell's shocking success, than anything bad he did. Teel from 3 to 4, also to make way for KC. Braden Montgomery at #5 surprises nobody. Perales remained at #6, despite the major injury. Arias jumped about as far as Campbell did from April (#25>#7.) Chase Meidroth keeps creeping up (#14> #11 summer> #8, now.) Bleis fell from 5 to 9 and Cespedes from 6 to 10, but both can still move back up, next year. Dobbins jumped up, a lot this year: 24>21>11. Fitts comes in at 12th, which is a drop from 9 and 8, earlier in the season. Tolle grabs the 13th slot with Sandlin and Jh Garcia finishing up the top 15. Mikey Romero jumped from 27 to 16th, thanks to a healthy season, and Early is 17th. I guess my big surprises is Wikelman at #18. I'd have him near #30. Jo Garcia is 19th and Cason is 20th. 21. Guerrero, 22. Castro, 23. Valera, 24. Penrod, 25. E Rodriguez, 26. Monegro, 27. D Reyes, 28. Paez, 29. Mullins, 30. Ju Gonzales. Prospects that graduated, this year: Sogard, Booser, Slaten, DHam, Abreu & Rafaela. 2023: Casas, Kelly, Murphy, Valdez & Bernardino. Prospects who dropped out of the top 30 in April: 13> 35 Zanetello, 16> 32 Jordan, 17> 49 Hickey, 26>45, A Anderson, 29> 39 Bastardo Other draftees: 36 Neely, 37 Clarke, 38 Tygart, 40 Ehrhard. 52 Turner