moonslav59

Last year, their RF'er, Haniger, batted .620 and their DH, Garver, batted .627. Their overall numbers at those two positions were better (.716 & .673,) but adding a bat like Abreu to RF, while improving their RF defense would be a major boost. Yoshida is better than Haniger and Garver, their two primary DH's in 2024. I'm not sure, if Meidroth wins the 3B job, but the Mariners had a .643 OPS at 3B in 2024. I'm super high on Jh Garcia, but he's a year or two away. The money part could be adjusted by us adding some cash going to the M's, but they do save some by swapping Castillo's deal for Yoshida's. $22.75M x 3 vs $18M x 3. While $17M does not seem like much, it might be enough to sign a RP'er for $9M x 2. If we add $5-10M in the deal, they could sign someone like Holmes and break even.

I'm a huge Jh Garcia fan, but I think I'd trade Abreu, Jh Garcia & Meidroth for Luis Castillo + 1/3 his contract (about $8M x 3 years.) It would lower Castillo's tax number to $13.6M. I wonder what the trade would be like with no money involved- maybe drop García or Meidroth? (I gotta say it: take away the money and add Yoshida and Garver- done deal.)

Some big upsets, today. It looks like ALA may sneak in, afterall. My top 15 teams: 1. ORE 12-0 (plays Penn St) 2. Texas 11-1 (plays Georgia) 3. Penn St. (Plays Ohio St) 4. Notre Dame 11-1 5. Ohio St 10-2 6. Georgia 10-2 (plays Texas) 7. Indianna 11-1 8. Tennessee 10-2 9. SMU 11-1 (plays Clemson) 10 Boise St. 11-1 (plays UNLV) 11. Alabama 9-3 12. So. Carolina 9-3 13. Ole Miss 9-3 14. Miami 10-2 15. AZ St. 9-3 (plays COL for Big 12 Championship and top 4 berth) Clemson 9-3, IA St 10-2, UNLV 10-2, COL 9-3 (plays AZ St for Conf champ) The college FB Playoffs seed the big 4 conference winners 1-4, so AZ St or COL will get a vert fortunate placement, while better teams have to win a game to advance. The Oregon-Penn St winner should be #1. The loser maybe be the 5-7 seed. The Texas-Georgia winner should be #2. The loser might be #5-7, if Texas or 9-12, if GA. The SMU-Clemson winner will be top 4 seeded. If Clemson loses, they should be out of the top 12. If SMU loses they may slide in at #12. Probably not. The AZ St-COL winner is the 4 seed, while the loser is out. #5 should be ND or the loser of ORE-Penn St. #7 should be the loser of GA-TX or Indiana/Tennessee/Ohio St. (#8-10) Boise St and SMU could move up to #9 or 10, assuming they win, but maybe not. If one loses, AL likely makes it to #12. So. Carolina and Ole Miss could make a case over AL.

I was going to get greedy and add a trade for Crochet, but I'm already beyond the "realistic."

Sign: Soto, Fried, Scott and Higgy. Trade: Abreu, Cespedes, Fitts and Yoshida for Arenado & Helsley. Rotation: Fried, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito (AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins) Pen: Scott, Helsley, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson (AAA: Bernardino, Fulmer, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Campbell, Booser, Mata) 1. Duran CF 2. Soto LF 3. Casas DH (1B) 4. Devers 1B (DH) 5. Story SS 6. Anthony RF 7. Campbell 2B 8. Arenado 3B 9. Higgy-Wong C Bench: Rafaela, DHam, Refsnyder, Wong/Higgy (AAA: Teel, Gasper, Grissom, Romy, Mayer, Meidroth, Valdez, Sogard, Zavala)

Go 15 years and keep the AAV as low as possible. I know the league has issues with teams going too long to lower the AAV, but 15 years would go to age 41. We could also pull a Dodger and defer some money to bring the AAV down.

Trey Ball & Jay Groome. Nuff said.

Of course. If he was the second or third pitcher added, probably a no as well.

Agreed. Soto, Fried, Scott and a defensive catcher, and we should be a top 4-6 contender. We could also make a trade for another pitcher, and be a top 3-4 contender.

They can do both. Sign Fried and Bauer as insurance and depth.

Bauer was pretty Meh to age 26. 99 ERA+ over his first 730 IP and 123 GS. (4.36 ERA/4.15 FIP) He had a great age 27 season (2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP) and for the short 2020 season (1.73 ERA in 11 GS). His 2.59 ERA in 17 GS at age 30 was his last season in MLB (2021) 2018-2021 (89 GS and 569 IP) 3.07 ERA (147 ERA+) 3.51 FIP and 1.09 WHIP 11K: 3BB Pretty damn good.

I've told myself not to get my expectations up, after repeated disappointments, but I feel the same as you on this. I'm also thinking, if we get Soto, we will also add another key player or two (like Fried, Scott and a catcher.)

I do not see him as an option, whereby you pencil him into the rotation, day one. He'd be a Criswell-type signing with higher upside.

100% It's also much easier to value pitchers that have been in the minors and majors for a few years vs HS and college. Sure, trades for pitchers can blow up, too, but not as often as high draft pick pitchers do. It is a winning strategy. We have resisted trading high bat prospects for pitching, since the Sale trade, but we might be due for one, this winter. We may also end up trading Abreu for a pitchers, only because we have prospect Anthony loudly knocking on the MLB door. The best argument is a look at our draft history or top 50 pitching picks: Abe Alvarez '03- 49th pick Craig Hansen '05-26th, Clay Buchholz '05- 42nd, Michael Bowden '05- 47th After 2005, it's been horrific.... Daniel Bard '06-28th, Kris Johnson 40th, Caleb Clay 44th Casey Kelly '08-30th, Bryan Price 45th Anthony Ranaudo '10 39th Matt Barnes '11- 19th, Henry Owens 36th Brian Johnson '12-31st, Pat Light 37th Trey Ball 7th, T Stankiewicz 43 Michael Kopech 33rd Jay Groome 12th Tanner Houck 24th Payton Tolle '24 -50th

If we sign Soto, we may need to try and find some cheaper pitching options.

The Georgia- Georgia Tech game, last night, was one for the ages. That GT team looked like a top 10 team. Had Georgia lost, it would have really given so many other teams a shot at the top 12- one being Alabama. Some big games, today: Ohio St is tied with Michigan at half. Win or loss, OSU is in. #8 Tenn is tied with Vandy at half. Win and in. Loss and maybe in. #12 Clemson is tied with #15 So Carolina in the 3rd Q: a Clemson win and their in. A So Car win might put them in over #13 Alabama. Later.... #1 Oregon v Washington (Ore is in, even if they lose here and the conf game.) #4 Penn St v MD (Penn St is in, even with a loss) #5 ND at USC (ND should be in, even if they lose.) #6 MIA at Syracuse (Upset special?) #9 SMU v CA (Need to win to be in) #10 Indiana v Purdue (IN needs a win.) #13 Alabama v Auburn (may be shut out of the playoffs.) #16 AZ St at AZ (may sneak in with 2-3 upsets)

I'm not a big fan of Arenado, but if we can, somehow, pull off a Yoshida plus ____ for Arenado and Helsley, I'd be thrilled. The money would be more for us, but see below. We'd add a RHB for a LHB. We'd greatly improve our defense. I'm not sure what else we'd have to add to make this happen, but I'd be willing to overpay. Helsley only has one year left (about $7M last arb.) Arenado makes $37M, $27M and $15M with an AAV of $30.6M, but COL is paying $5M for 2025 and 2016, so the Arenado part would come to $64M/3 vs $55M/3 for Yoshida. The savings on Helsley vs a top 4 FA RP'er would make up a big chunk of that. Add a defensive catcher and we could go from a bottom 5 defense to a top 10 defense, assuming Story is healthy. C: Add (Wong) 1B: Devers & Casas (improved but not good) 2B: Campbell and DHam (a plus defense at 2B) SS: Story (plus, plus) 3B: Arenado (Devers) Plus LF: Duran (Ref) Plus CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony) Plus RF: Abreu (Anthony) Plus DH: Casas/Devers/Ref Only 1B would be a below average defense. (Maybe Devers could be average after a couple months. His biggest negative is his inaccurate arm.)

Valdez? Wow.

I'd give him a shot, but I can understand not wanting distractions.

Duran would have to bring back a really good, cost-controlled, 3+ year pitcher. We'd also have to have faith in Rafaela in CF, but I guess we could do this: LF: Soto CF: Anthony v RHPs and Rafaela v LHPs (maybe Campbell) RF: Abreu v RHPs and Anthony v LHPs

As does Abreu, for now, anyway. If there were more LHPs than RHPs, they both would have way less value. 2024 Sox vs LHPs: 1.180 O'Neil (GONE) .941 Refsnyder .879 Romy (might not make 26) .877 Wong (D is so bad, he may not play FT) .758 Casas (.817 in '23) .686 Devers (.739 career) .665 Duran (.749 in '23) .619 Grissom (.727 career) .603 Rafaela (has career reverse splits: .684 v R/.610 v L) .565 Yoshida (.746 in '23) .532 Abreu & DHam .472 Story (just 20 PAs) .296 Valdez

You make a good point. None of those listed, outside the top 5 look to be high leverage RP'ers, but as pen depth or low to moderate leverage RP'ers, having 16 decent or promising guys to fill 3 slots is the definition of depth. As with the vast majority of RP'ers in MLB, they are largely hit or miss. Of course, it's better to have 8 guys you can count on in moderate to high leverage situations, and then have another 5-7 like those on my list, but I do see some serious hopes in over 3 of the remaining 16. Winckowski: He is one of only 165 pitchers in MLB with over 150 IP from 2023. He places 27th in ERA-, a stat I have always valued pretty highly. He is much lower in other stats, but does have a 3.98 SIERA. He could be a decent 2-3 IP guy in our pen. Guerrero: He is listed above Hendriks on soxprospects.com, and his value is almost all speculative. They say, " He has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system." Penrod: I have not been as high on him as others, but he throws hard and could do well. Bernardino was looking like the gem in the rough we hoped Bloom would have found more of. He throws lefty and had a very nice 2023 season for us. (3.20 ERA in 51 IP. He had a .708 OPSA and was great on the road (.557.) This year, his H/A splits flipped (.939 away and .600 home.) In his first 30 IP of 2024, he had a 1.19 ERA and .564 OPSA. Those first 80 IP with the Sox were close to great. His last 21 IP seems to have taken away all the hope: 8.27 ERA and .971 OPSA. Justin Wilson (LHP) and Michael Fulmer both have histories of being really good, but they both have struggled or been hurt, lately. Fulmer might have the better shot at looking good in '25. Zach Kelly showed some signs of looking good, but had BB issues. Booser was likely a flash in the pan. To me, I think one of these guys has a good chance at being pretty good in '25: I Campbell, Weissert or Mata, but here is where we might have the best chance at finding a very good 6th man in the pen: If we add 2 SP'ers, it would be Crawford or Bello. If not, it could be Criswell, Fitts, Priester or Dobbins out of the AAA rotation. Hell, we could rob two from there. It might take some trial and error, and I'm not sure we can afford too many errors, before we settle on the 6-8th slot pen guys, but I think that won't be an issue. However, this assumes we add 2 quality pen arms or one plus two SP'ers, and relatively good health for the whole staff. Adding 2 quality SP'ers and 2 of the top 4 pen arms plus another good pen arm would be ideal, but if we sign Soto, I'm not sure how much will be left to spend on 4-5 quality arms. (We could trade for 1 or two, and probably would.)

Speaking of players that look to be pretty close to DH only, here is a look at Enmanual Valdez: Here is a guy that came up and via the Vaz trade with Abreu. He hit better than him through the high farm levels, and was indeed one of the best hitters in the minors over a 1-2 year stretch (2021-2022) and his .864 in 2023 with Woo. He started in the rookie league way back in 2016, at age 17. Skipping 2020, that is 8 years in pro ball. He turns 26 in about a week. He has 371 PAs in the bigs- spread out over two seasons. He's looked pretty good on offense, at times, but has also looked awful, at other times. .866 first 63 PAs of '23 .690 last 86 PAs of '23 .447 first 90 PAs of '24 .784 last 124 PAs of '24. If you take away that one really bad 86 PA stretch, his OPS would be pretty good. The biggest issue is his defense. It's atrocious, no matter where he plays. It has not improved, despite 8 years of pro ball. His offense has not been good enough to be a FT DH in MLB, but with a little improvement, maybe he could get there. On a team like the Sox, where does that leave his hopes? One could argue that DH suits Devers, Casas, Yoshida and Refsnyder best. He's not a better hitter than any of them, except Ref vs RHPs. He is worse than Abreu vs LHPs. (.327 OPS in 52 PAs v LHPs.) In some ways, he seem, like he is wasting a slot on the 40, and maybe he will be traded, this winter, but I think we have 4-5 players on the 40 with less hope than he has. Other teams may worry about his away splits: .812 at Fenway and .542 away. Gotta think this is a make or break year for EV.... maybe even a make or break ST'ing.

Unless 2024 was a fluke, Houck is one of MLB's best #2's, but I agree we need two top SP'ers. Burnes of Fried Trade for another. Houck becomes a top #3 SP'er. Bello, Crawford, Gio, Criswell, Priester and Fitts can fight over the last 2 slots. (After 2025, drop Gio from the fight.) Signing two also pushes Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen as a solid long man. I'm all in. There is room for both of us on the front seat of this bandwagon.

Not a bad idea, but pen signings seem safer than SP'er ones, and we'd have to give up a lot to get Helsley. The Arenado & Helsley deal looks interesting, if money is not an issue, and that deal would allow Devers to move to 1B and greatly improve our D, but Holmes plus Hoffman would be cheaper than Arenado. Get STL to take Yoshida in the deal, and I'm all in. Tweak the Fitts, Cespedes for Arenado +$15M and Helsley plus a prospect. Another suggested trade is just Yoshida for Arenado, but getting Helsley would be a coup. Offer: Abreu, Fitts or Cespedes and Yoshida for Arenado & Helsely + $15M ( no STL prospect to BOS) (Note: COL is paying $5M x 2 years on Arenado's deal.) Casas & Devers at 1B & DH Arenado at 3B Story at SS Campbell or DHam at 2B That's a solid IF. Sign a defensive catcher and our D goes from worst to top 10. Yoshida might hit better than Arenado, but we add a RHB to replace Yoshida. This also allows Ref to play LF vs RHPs, and not DH. LF: Duran- Ref CF: Rafaela- Duran RF: Anthony (Campbell)