moonslav59

This is a point I have been making, too. Even if we add no RP'ers, this winter, which would be malpractice, our depth beyond the 8 on the big club is decent to maybe above league average. For once, pen depth looks to not be an issue. Top pen quality is. If we add two from Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Esteves, I'd then say our pen depth might rate top 10 in MLB, maybe higher. Scott & Holmes would be a solid 1-2 punch. Slaten, Whitlock & Hendriks are fine 7th and 8th inning options. (If we add 2 SP'ers, as well, we can plug Crawford into the long man role) Criswell, Fitts, Winckowski can be the 2-3 inning guys in close games (1-2 will be in AAA.) Wilson or Bernardino will be the lefty Guerrero, Fulmer, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, I Campbell, Mata, Booser, Shugart or AAA SP'ers like Dobbins, Fitts, Criswell or Priester could also fill a pen role, if we get this deep. I count 21 names, here for 8 slots. Maybe 3-4 are long shots and 3-4 will stay as SP'ers, but that should still come to 16 for 8 slots.

I think there are many very good young pitchers who have really good stuff. It's hard to pry one loose from a contending team, and those on rebuilding teams want a high price for one. We must try. If we can't get one, even with an overpay, I like the idea of trading for a higher priced, established SP'er who may be about to decline, but does not have a ton of years of control, costs less than a FA and won't take top prospects to get. Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez, and others. I like Crochet, but I think even Abreu and Arias might be too much. Maybe add Kelly or Weissert.

You know how many pitchers have had periods where they show "pure stuff?" Nasty stuff? Unhittable stuff? Hell, DHern had one of MLB's best H/9 rates after 50 IP or so. It takes more than 2 games, or even one season to prove you have it. I'm not saying Crochet is not really good. Maybe he will be great. I'm just saying he has not proven it, yet, and giving up that much is a huge risk. Plus, it's only 2 years.

Trade for another SP'er. Crochet has never pitched over 65 IP, at any level, even college, until this year. Come on, man!

You've seen my unending trade suggestions, some for Crochet. I'm willing to give, and give a lot. What we get better be a good pitcher. I'm less sure about Crochet, and am more willing to trade for higher-prices pitchers like Castillo or Lopez. Even with an extension, I'm not sure Crochet is much better than Crawford and Bello. Better but not better by enough.

Sign Soto for $644/14 ($46M x 14) Sign Scott for $64M/4 ($16M x 4) Sign Holmes for $33M/3 ($11M x 3) Trade: Abreu (pre arb w 5 yrs,) Crawford ($3M arb 1 w 3 more arbs.) and Yoshida ($18.6M x 3) and $10M a year x 3 years. For:Pablo Lopez ($21.8M x 3) $18.4M AAV Tax and Ryan Jeffers ($5M 2nd arb+ 3rd arb for 2026.) Trade Cost: Sox pay $15M more for year 1. (Tax line: about $5M more) Total Tax Line cost: $78M (about $8M over the line)

I would not give just Casas and Abreu. Career per 162 games or 650 PAs: Casas .830 OPS (125 OPS+) with 31 HRs Abreu: .794 OPS (117 OPS+) with 20 HRs and GG type defense Crochet has just 2 years of control and has had just one ML or minor league season over 55 IP. (He had two seasons in college between 63 and 65 IP. To me, he is too much of an unknown to get such a big haul. I might give Abreu, Arias and Kelly. Maybe Cespedes, Arias and Fitts/Sandlin. I'd probably say no to Mayer for Crochet.

The projected .293 OBP seems very low (.665 OPS.)

They look to be average or a bit above average, now, and are still pre-prime. It's interesting to look at the SIERA rankings of Sox pitchers from 2023-2024. 150 SP'ers with 160+ IP (5 pitchers per 30 teams-150) 5. Pivetta 3.32 (Not sure why so many are down on this guy.) 58. Houck 3.96 (7th in GB% and 38th ERA-) 61. Winckowski 3.99 (23rd in ERA-) 14th in GB% 66. Crawford 4.03 (near bottom 10 in GB%) 74. Bello 4.15 (8th in GB%) All 5 are in the upper half in MLB. (Pivetta is a FA and Giolito is #81.) To me, "core" is not the same as All Star.

Exactly. For all we know, one team might be waiting until the last minute to blast in with a top offer that is higher enough to end any counter offer ideas. That could be the Dodgers. I doubt TOR blows everyone else away. I'm hoping the Dodgers will start thinking they've done enough for a while. The Yanks have a lot to lose by missing out on Soto, since there is nobody out there to replace his loss to their team. The Mets would love to steal some thunder from the Yanks. The NYC buzz would be enormous, but I'm not sure Cohen is still into wild spending, just for spending's sake. I think he has set a limit. I hate to be thinking like this, because I am SOOOO sick of letdowns, but I'm liking the Sox chances, the more I think about it. Reports suggest we are $70M below line one and $90M below line two. I'm thinking JH may just spend between those two amounts in winter AAV added to the budget. $70-90M add a huge chunk of talent to an already decent foundation.

He's too unknown for me to add to my must get Soto alternates, but he would be a nice score.

Once again, the health of Story will play a big role in how we set our infield, and how well our team does, particularly as related to defense. Assuming he plays 140+ games at SS, we have several options for shuffling our infield around to greatly improve our defense. Whether we can or do dump Yoshida need not interfere with step 1: move Devers to 1B or have him share 1B/DH duties with Casas. 1B: Devers & Casas SS: Story (Mayer as back-up, then Romy) That leaves 2B and 3B. If we do not add anyone else, there are a few choices: 2B: Campbell & 3B: Mayer (Grissom/ Meidroth) 2B: Campbell & 3B: Grissom 2B: DHam & Grissom platoon & 3B: Campbell or Mayer (Grissom/Meidroth) I like any of these choices better than running back the same IF as 2024, but with Story FT. Unlike Larry, I do not think this would be a major selling point to land top pitchers, but it would make us a better defensive team, without hurting the offense, IMO. I've suggested moving Devers to 1B and then offering Casas + Abreu in trade to find a cost-effective SP'er, but losing Casas would greatly hurt the offense. Even if we add Soto, I'd like to keep Casas. Soto all but guarantees an Abreu trade.

Here is another way to look at the situation, even if we assume JH is going to spend bi, this winter. Are the odds better that we win the Soto bidding war and then sign 1-2 other important players, or we miss out on Soto and then sign 3 or 4 from... Burnes and Fried Teoscar or (please no) Bregman Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Estevez

I think we have several pitchers like him that we just have not seen pitch. Also, watching someone pitch one to two times is not enough to get a true read. Somedays, even the best of the best look awful. Again, I'm a quality over quantity kinda guy, but our quantity has some decent quality sprinkled in, here and there. We have close to 30 pitchers with some sort of highlight. If 1/6th make a decent jump, that's 5. If another 1/6th make some sort of gain, maybe we have 5 more. Another sixth or third might keep the hope alive for a jump in 2027. A jump from Priester (not a prospect, but I'm counting him) Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, or even Sandlin or Early could give us help by 2025 or 2026. It would be nice to have a few healthy Perales's, but it is what it is.

You are right. Abreu, Fitts and Kelly is too much to give. LOL. Maybe Abreu, Arias, Kelly & Wikelman....

I'm against Bregman, too. I'd be okay with Fried, Teoscar (trade Abreu & othrs for Crochet), Scott and Higgy/Jansen. (Maybe add Holmes.)

Both Cohen and JH could pay him a $Billion, if they wanted to. I'm sure they both have a high line they won't cross. This signing may mean more to JH and his personna than it does to Cohen or Steinbrenner. Maybe that is the deciding factor. All of these three owners might be content with just driving up the price and then swopping in on Burnes, Fried, Bregman or couple others.

If another team offers $650M/13, we should counter with $670M/14. If the league allows a 15 year offer, do it and bring down the AAV, as much as possible. That will matter, when JH goes through his next budget cutting period (or two and three over the next 15 seasons.)

I don't disagree, and Yoshida will likely start the season on the IL- maybe even the 60 day one. If Yoshida and Ref are ever on the roster, at the same time, as they have been for many months from 2023-2024, it might just be for a short time, as we evaluate what Yoshida can give us (or another team via trade.) Ref can play LF or a short RF, and Duran can move to CF, so that would lessen the need for a 5th OF'er. Rafaela's ability to play CF like a GG'er, 2B pretty well and SS in a pinch does give us some flexibility. DHam or Grissom at SS is frightening, unless just for one day, as we call up Romy or Mayer to take it over due to an injury to Story. DHam or Grissom could play 3B, until Romy or Mediroth are called up. Again, it's not ideal, but we've done it for 2 years, except Ref platooned the OF not DH. I see the difference, but whoever is not DH'ing still can act as a back-up OF'er or PH'er. I don't like it either, but as much as I've tried, I can't find a Yoshida trade that makes sense for both teams, and I do not think he should be DFA'd, right now. We NEED REF's RH'd BAT. He is a top 25 hitter vs LHPs, and that is a major weak area on this team. Find a Yoshida trade that makes sense, and I'll be driving that bandwagon.

If you had to choose only one, what would it be? Soto, Pivetta, Scott, Jansen & trade Abreu, Fitts & Kelly for Crochet. Burnes, Teoscar, Scott, Holmes, Higgy & same trade. (I almost gave this as a choice: Burnes, Fried, Scott and Jansen and keep Abreu while trying to dump Yoshida.)

It would be a massive overpay, but I think we have backed ourselves into a corner. Paying Soto close to double what we might have gotten Betts for seems insane, but we need to bite the bullet on someone, and Soto, at his age, seems like the best "bullet" there can be. If we miss out on Soto, we'd need to sign 3-4 of the most useful 7 or 8 FAs on the market. In fact, we will still need to add 1-2 big names with Soto, as well. No Soto: Fried and/or Burnes (if one, then Pivetta, Flaherty or ___?) Bregman or Teoscar Higgy or Janssen Scott or two from Holmes, Estevez & Hoffman With Soto: Fried or Burnes (Pivetta, Flaherty, if we also get Scott and one the next 3 listed below) Scott, Holmes, Estevez or Hoffman Higgy or Jansen Getting Soto makes trading Abreu or Rafaela a sure bet, so we'd add value here, too.

Everybody agrees Yoshida is overpaid. That does not make him a DFA guy. I do not think he is even close to that point, right now. If he were a FA, right now, the injury issue would lower his contract or force a one year deal, so it's hard to say what his FA value would be for 3 years. Due to the injury, his "market value" could range from $3M x 3 to maybe $10M x 3, if considered healthy. If you count this value towards the $18.3 M x 3, he's owed, we'd have to pay the other team around $9-14M a year with nothing in return expected. If we knew saving $4-9M a year would be used to sign a RP'er or up an offer on a better player, it might be worth it. To me, we should probably just trade Abreu and go with Yoshida at DH for 2025. If he's doing well, and he is not blocking anyone, we just keep him. If we think someone else needs PAs vs RHPs, we can trade him, while his value is a bit higher. If ends up sucking in 2025, then maybe we lost $4-9M in budget space for 2-3 years. I like a Yoshida-Ref platoon at DH, despite it taking up 2 out of 13 roster spots. Ref can also be the 4th or 5th OF'er (LF.) If we trade Abreu and promote Anthony, that leaves LF Duran/Ref, CF Rafaela/Duran, RF Anthony (Ref in away gms only.) That leaves one roster slot for the back-up catcher and one for IF utility- DHam-Grissom, whoever is not starting or one of them on the bench, if Campbell wins the 2B job. Rafaela, also offers MI depth, which helps us be able to carry two DH types. Not ideal, I admit, but we can start the season like this, assuming Yoshida is not on the April IL.

As much as I have tried to temper all hopes, I fell for this. I'm prepared to be flogged.

Good question. I was thinking of a trade during the 2025 season, as Yoshida also has to show he is recovered. Maybe a radar gun? Scouts watching him have pitch in 2025. If pre 2025, scouts watching him during pitching session?