moonslav59

Anthony has homered, and Woo is down 3-2 after 5. Sandlin got drilled w POR. Rogers off to a nice start (4IP 4H 1ER 0BB 8K) SAL was tied 0-0 going into the 9th, then let up 3. Valera 3IP 2H 0ER 2BB 3K The O has 1 hit through 8.

We can be pretty sure the two parties were never close enough to get the deal done. That's about it. For argument's sake, let's say the agreed on $210M/7. He's going to be 32 in a couple months, and is showing some signs of decline or injury. He may be moves to another position in the next year or two. Is it clear he will earn $30M a year x 5 more years?

Just finished watching on delay. That was awful. We are digging a very deep hole and looking like the team of the last 2 years.

OPS: .966 after 25 games .840 after 50 games (.714 from 26-50 gms) .797 after 75 (.714 51-75) .766 after 98 (.669 last 23 games) .474 last 13 games

Who is opposed to this?

I asked a question not made an accusation. I'm not sure he would have signed for "a lot less," but that is a valid opinion. Personally, I'm not sure he'd have signed for even $200M/7 in the winter of '21-'22 or even $160M/6 some suggest he might take back in the winter of "20-'21. Maybe he'd have taken $200M/8 back then or $217M/7 before '22, but who knows. I think we all agree, we wish he was still here. Are we all still certain he'll earn even $200M/7? (I'm less certain, now as he turns 32, soon.) I think we all agree the Story signing has not worked and would rather have Bogey at near the same price. Are people arguing with you that the Story signing was good or even okay (in hindsight?)

At his current cost? Knowing the tight budget JH demands and how it would mean not signing many other players?

I wish we still had him- with or without Story. I will add this... Bogey's fWAR numbers with us, his last 4 full seasons (no 2020): 4.6 6.0 4.1 6.0 Averages about 5.2 per season (peak prime years) Since the trade: 4.6 1.6 (which pro-rates to about 2.0 at this rate) 3.3 average/season as he nears 32 years old. There is still a good chance he can top 3.3 for 1-3 more years- maybe even top 4 again, but he may also be around 2-3 for another 2-3 years, then drop even more.

I'm not sure Bogey takes that offer, if it was given 1 or even 2 years earlier.

So, maybe JH does not want to pay today's prices for some better SP'ers. Might he agree to trade for some higher priced players that could be on the trading block, this winter (on teams not looking too good for 2025.) Signed Deals: Luis Castillo $22.8M x 3 SEA (vesting option $25M) Tyler Anderson $13M x 2 LAA Hunter Greene $8.8M x 4 w option CIN Logan Webb $18M x 4 SFG Mitch Keller $15.4M x 4 PIT J. Tailon $17M x 2 CHC Jordan Hicks $11M x 3 SFG Sandy Alcanatara $17.3M x 2 MIA Kevin Gausman $23M x 2 TOR Chris Bassitt $22M x 1 TOR Jose Berios $19M x 2 then $24M x 2 (18.7 AAV) TOR Blake Snell $31M/1 SFG (opt out) Robbie Ray $23M x 2 SFG Arb Pitchers (2024 pay & arbs remaining) Tarik Skubal ($2.7M: 2 of 3 arbs remaining) DET Gilbert Logan ($4M: 2nd of 4) SEA George Kirby ($800K: 1 of 4) SEA Garrett Crochet ($800K: 2 of 3 arbs) CWS Justin Steele ($4M: 2 of 4) MacK. Gore ($749: 1 of 3) WSH Nick Lodolo ($760K: 1 of 3) CIN Bailey Falter ($755K: 1 of 4) PIT Patrick Sandoval ($5M: 3rd of 4 arbs) LAA Reid Detmers ($770K: 1 of 3) LAA Braxton Garrett ($760K: 1 of 4) MIA Edward Cabrera ($761K: 1 of 4) MIA Cal Quantrill ($6.6M: 4 of 4) COL Austin Gomber ($3.2M: 3 of 3) COL Casey Mize ($830K 2 of 3) DET Zack Littell ($1.9M 3 of 3) TBR Aaron Civale ($4.9M: 3 of 3) TBR Pre-Arbs Brice Miller & Bryan Woo SEA Taj Bradley & Rene Pepiot TBR Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn SFG Jake Irvin, DJ Herz & Mitchell Parker WSH Andrew Abbott CIN, Jared Jones PIT, JP Sears OAK, Reese Olson DET

If you think about it, had Gio given us 25 GS and 150 IP, by today, and just a 4.20 to 4.50 ERA, we'd have not only saved the pen from a lot of IP'd but also not seen any starts like... 6 Wink 3 Bernardino 3 Paxton 2 Kelly 1 Anderson and 10 less from Criswell, Pivetta or Crawford. Had we been able to move Crawford to the pen, when he started showing signs of breaking down, the difference might have been enormous. I know... "maybe, maybe, maybe" and "everyone has injuries, and we need to plan for them," but if just this one thing came true, I think we'd be ahead of HOU, MIN and maybe KCR, right now. We'd be within a couple games of BAL & NYY. Yes, if each other team were give the same gift, we'd be right where we are now- or worse off.

I totally agree, but the fact is he DID spend bigly on a player in 2024, and it was an everyday player. The Story signing was the next biggest deal. $100M on Yoshi's was the third biggest deal. The biggest trade after DD was Betts, and did we get a pitcher for him? NO! JH has spent money. He has not spent as much as 6-8 other GM who jumped our spending, and he hasn't spent big on SP'ers since Sale & Nate. We need to trade or spend on pitching. We cannot keep counting on the same guys to do better or fill roles they were not meant to fill. Whitlock and Crawford belong in the pen. Bello should be a 5IP SP'er, hence the need for longmen like Whit & Craw.

Okay. We don't keep him with an offer of $217M/7, so what's the point? Plus, my point is we spent on pitching from 2016 to Sale/Nate (2019-2020) and stopped after that (Devers, Story & Yoshi.) Thanks for reinforcing it.

I'm afraid JH & Co. agree with you that Hendriks can be counted on a closer, Gio can be counted on as a #2 SP and Whitlock as who knows what key role they assign him for 2025. IMO, I would not discount their "additions," as well as Fulmer's and maybe a full season from Slaten & Criswell and upticks from Weissert, I Campbell and others who underperformed in 2024. No doubt, our top brass values these guys more than we do. I'd count on Hendrick as the back-up closer and top 2 set-up man with an eye on needing depth, in case of further injury. I'd count on Gio as a pretty safe bet to stay healthy and maybe give us 25 GS and 150 IP, but with numbers like a 3/4 SP'er. I'd count on Whitlock to be a decent middle RP or set-up man, but if they slot him as a SP'er his over-under on GS might be 4.5. Fulmer should be viewed as our 9th RP, at best. Slaten should be good. Not sure what we can count on from Criswell & Priester (Fitts & Dobbins) The rest or our pen is as questionable as they are now... (Will they be this bad, is the question for most) Bernardino Kelly Winckowski (make him a SP'er, again?) Booser Weissert I Campbell Horn Guerrero Mata & Murphy I see it like this: __Add___ to replace Jansen Hendriks replaces the 2024 Martin (not the 2023 Martin) Gio replaces Pivetta Whitlock replaces Whitlock (2024 or which one?) Crawford replaces a pen slot from 2024, wich creates a SP opening. Criswell stays as our rotation depth (in AAA) or a mid-relief guy Minimum needed to be significantly better in 2025 (still might not be enough) : SP1 ___ add___ SP2 Houck SP3 Giolito SP4 ___add____ SP5 Bello (SP Depth: Criswell, Wink, Preister, Fitts, Crawford/Whitlock) Closer: ___ add___ RP2 Hendriks RP3 ___add____ RP4 Slaten RP5 Crawford RP6 Whitlock RP7 Winckowski RP8 Fulmer Pen depth: Bernardino, Kelly, Booser, (SP depth list,) I Campbell, Horn, Guerrero I see 4 key pitcher additions needed, at minimum. I will not be surprised if we only add 1-2. (I'd prefer 5-6 additions.)

Of course a lot of $1-4M deals add up and matter, but let's look at the $5M+ deals signed since the Price deal in 2016: Arb contracts not counted: Black= everyday players Red= SP'ers Blue= RP'ers 2016: $300M on SP and $13M everyday 217/7 Price 83/5 Porcello 13/2 Chris Young 2017: $42M RP (not all) $33M (not all) SP, $6M everyday 42/4 Kimbrel trade 33/5 Sale trade 6/1 Moreland 2018: $129 everyday and $9 SP 110/5 JD Martinez 13/2 Moreland 9/1 Pomeranz trade 6/2 Nunez trade 2019: (lost Kimbrel & Kelly) 213 SP and 66 everyday 145/5 Sale (2020 start to extension) 60/3 (120/6) Bogey (2020 start to extension) Opt out made it $60/3 68/4 Nate (re-sign) 6/1 Pearce (re-sign) 2020: 6 SP 6/1 Martin Perez (Pillar was the next biggest deal at 4.3/1) 2021: 15 SP and 14 everyday 14/2 Kike 10/1 Garrett 5/1 Perez II (Renfroe & Marwin at #3M each) 2022: 164 everyday and 22 SP & 27 RP (30, if you count Starhm) 140/6 Story 24/2 (not all) JBJ traded for this 19/2 Barnes extension 10/2 Paxton 8/2 Diekman 7/1 Wacha 5/1 Hill (3/1 for Strahm worked well) 2023: 120 everyday, 50 RP , 19 RP/SP & 10 SP 90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee) 32/2 Jansen 19/4 Whitlock (extension where most were arb years) Used as RP'er, too. 18/2 Martin 13/1 J Turner 10/1 Kike 10/1 Kluber 7/1 Duvall (3/1 Mondesi trade) 2024: 359 everyday, 94 SP & 10 RP 313/10 Devers 55/6 Bello (extension where most were arb years) 50/8 Rafaela (extension w many arb years included) 39/2 Giolito 10/2 Hendriks (more for 2025) 6/1 O'Neill trade Note: I probably missed a couple guys. I also counted player salary we traded for in full, so that adds too much to those totals, but I think the pattern looks clear: We used to spend more on Pitching than we have done since the Sale/Nate deals. It's way different.

I'm not saying there is no logic to these signings. The Devers one was essential, even if just to save face. I was they guy saying "Devers Forevers." The Story signing made sense, too, in theory, since the Bogey departure seemed immanent. I'm not sure the Yoshi signing was justifiable, with the pitching staff in such a sad state. Signings like Renfroe, Duvall and trades like O'Neill's and JBJ's seemed to fill a need at the time, but pitching was always a higher need. The big part of the Betts trade was Verdugo and not a pitcher. Now, the farm and 26 & 40 man rosters were not always this loaded with quality everyday players, and back when we signed these guys, we had needs at some positions, but clearly our biggest need in every season since 2019 has been pitching. We have not even drafted or signed many pitching prospects since then, and I am fine with that, but only if the plan is to focus financial and trade capital on pitching. It's easy to just say, "We need to focus our frm efforts on identifying, acquiring and developing quality pitchers in numbers," but it's not an easy thing, and even if we knew we could do it, starting yesterday, it looks like several years in the making. So what? We waste an awesome core of everyday players, all under team control for 3-9 years, as we wait for our farm system to churn out pitchers in 3-6 years? Look, I'm not just about spending more on pitching: I've been a big advocate for making a big splash everyday prospects trade for a TOTR pitcher for years and years. If we make a big trade, then the need for spending on pitching would be reduced, but even adding an ace via trade, this winter, what would you say is the next #1 need area? I'd say: 1. SP3 2. Closer 3. Top set up man 4. Good middle RP 5. SP depth 6. another pitcher 7. a RHB (maybe swap a LHB for RHB and not spend a penny more.) Do you see our needs differently? If not, how do we fix the pitching problem within the window we have, which to me is 2025-2028 and beyond, with the peak being maybe 2026-2027.

To me, when you consider where the focus on the farm has been on everyday players, the spending budget should have been something like this: 40% Rotation 30-35% Pen 25-30% Everyday players The other thing is, nearly all of the very largest and longest deals and extensions, after the Sale and Nate deals have been to everyday players. I think 3 of the highest 4 pitching contracts handed out were to RP'ers.

When you draft mostly batters, especially the higher draft picks, and sign mostly batters as IFAs, why do we then spend just nearly half of our money on pitching? Drafting and IFA have been near 75% batter. Free Agent signings & extensions should be near 75% pitching. (Or, trade batters for pitchers like we did in the olden times.)

LOL. A 6 PA sample size.

He spends more on his third highest bat contract than the 3 highest arm contracts combined. It's NOT about NOT spending, it's about not spending what he does spend on pitching. I'm not sure how many ways I can explain it. Here is a short version: He spends- just not on pitching.

More than the $313M/10 he gave Devers?

Those two have nothing to do with this being the best, second best or third best season by Devers.

I disagree on this, too. He was significantly better in 2019 and 2022. OAA +17 2019 -2 2022 -7 2024 (on pace for more) DRS -5 2019 (many more innings) -6 2022 -7 2024 He was significantly worse in 2017 & 2020. He's been all over the map both within almost every season and from season to season. He has done much better since the first 6-8 weeks, but the season has not been his best, IMO.

It's not just a better OPS. I guess we should blame him for blowing away his previous BB% rate. (11% in 2024 and 8% the rest of his career.) .296 BA is second highest ever (.311 in '19.) .371 OBP highest (.361 in '19) .578 SLG highest (.555 in '19) .284 ISO highest by a ton (.259 in '21) .393 wOBA highest by 20 points (.373 in '21 & '22) 152 wRC+ highest by 12 (140 in '21) (Even is 4.8 Spd number is second only to 4.9 in 2019) He has GIDP way less than the rest of his career. He's batting in runs at slightly better than his career rate, and that deserves criticism?

Yes, and being second to Duran in many stats is no slight, either. Duran might get some MVP votes, if the team makes it to the dance.