moonslav59

Time to look at quality over quantity, and Bloom ain't here, no more.

We should get Crochet and Fedde for that plus Valdez and Lugo.

Yes, as do Dalbec & Mata. Many times, needing to be on the 40 is a bad thing, to some teams looking at a winter roster crunch. Some of our 40 man roster players have zero trade value, but here is my trade list for them: EValdez Murphy Walter Wikelman Mata Westbrook Horn Heineman Wingenter Speas Dalbec Rule 5, this winter, that could be traded: Yorke Lugo Jordan Guerrero Paulino Castro Hickey Gambrell Sogard Troye

Amazing and good that a team can lose 33% of its expected starting lineup by mid April , along with a starting pitcher , Giolito, and Whitlock a little later and still be 10 over .500. Clearly the Sox depth and foundation were undervalued, last winter. Rotation: We've used 7 SP'ers and 3 "openers." Our #1 (Gio) won't start a game in 2024. Houck was considered by some to be the 6th starter. Mostly 4th or 5th by others. Criswell wasn't even considered. Pen: We've used 17 pitchers in relief. Martin was our best RP'er, last year. He's been on the IL twice and struggled for mush of the other times. Slaten took up a lot of slack and is now on the IL. Kelly, Weissert, Booser, Bernardino and Wink have helped. C: have not needed depth, here, but some viewed our current tandem as both being back-ups. 1B: one area we sorely lack in depth and needed it. Smith has been doing better, of late (.934 in July.) 2B: it took a while to find a decent replacement, but the DHam/Romy platoon is doing okay. SS: Rafaela has done better than any other back-up we've had since Iggy for one month in '21. 3B: have not needed depth. OF: We went into the season with many OF questions, including on Duran and O'Neill. Our OF has the second best fWAR in MLB. It's hard to say who was the "depth," back in March, but whoever you think, they have done well. (Duran, Rafaela, O'Neill, Abreu, Refsnyder) DH: Our back-ups to Yoshida have mostly done well: PAs /Player as DH Only /OPS 51 O'Neill .825 44 Refsnyder .864 23 Devers 1.162 (when injured) 6 EValdez 2.833 (124 PAs total to Yoshida's 190 at .683)

Some trade possibilities? "Plus others:" choice(s) from any prospects below #9. Anthony, DHam plus others CWS Crochet (2 arbs) & DeJong (FA- rental) Anthony plus others or Abreu, Bleis or Cespedes plus others CWS Roberts Jr. ($35M/2)& Fedde ($7.5M/1) Anthony, DHam plus others OAK Miller (pre-arb) & Rooker (3 arbs) Abreu plus others LAA T Anderson ($13M/1) & Pillar (FA) Fitts, DHam, Sandlin plus others TOR Gausman ($22M x 2) & Turner (FA) Bassitt ($21M/1) & Kikuchi (FA) Anthony DET Skubal (2 arbs) Fitts, DHam plus others DET Flaherty (FA) & Canha (FA) Abreu, Fitts or Sandlin, DHam plus others MIA Chisholm (2 arbs,) T Rogers (2 arbs) & T Scott (FA) Abreu, Fitts or Sandlin, DHam, plus others COL Feltner (4 arbs) & Gomber (1 arb)

He might also be 6-3 and 230.

You asked good questions.

Dean has the second best OPSA out of our top 37 pitchers in IP for 2024.

I was trying to conservative, and I do think Dean passes some in the next rankings. He is 14th in IP on the Sox farm and only Wehunt has more IP and a better OPSA than Dean's .541. His 4.08 ERA would be better if he didn't walk 29 batters in 57 IP. Only 27 hits allowed is rather astounding. My pitcher rankings might be: 1. Perales 2. Fitts 3. Sandlin 4. E R-C 5. Dobbins 6. Early 7. Mullins 8. Monegro 9. Portes 10. Bastardo Close calls to Dean: Penrod, Wikelman, Wehunt, Gambrell, Reyes, Horn, Mata, Paez

I guess some facts are disputable.

I think we can get something decent for 2-3 of the guys I listed- perhaps 2-3 together, or one with a mid level guy added (Fiits, Sandlin or Yorke.) I keep bringing up the Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber trade as an example, but those types of deals are common: a team's 10-20th prospect for a decent and useful player. Fitts and 1-2 from Valdez, Lugo, Meidroth, Paulino, Castro, Jordan for a SP. Yorke and 2-3 from the same group for a SP or RHB + RP. It would hardly affect our future depth chart, except for maybe Fitts.

At what point do the big 3 make their major league appearance? How much better is Roman Anthony than say Abreu? He should be better and can play CF. Both are LHBs, as is Duran. I think one might be traded by the start of 2025. How soon can we expect to see Teel? Do we stick with Reese McGuire for another year? His third and final year of arbitration? Catchers normally take time to develop, but Teel is supposed to be good on D. That being said, I think we start 2025 with McGuire as the #2 catcher and maybe trade him at the deadline. (I might be one of the few who still likes McGuire as our #2.) How realistic is it for Mayer to replace healthy Story with decent hitting? Do we move Story to second base to accommodate Mayer? When does the switch occur? Story is still an excellent defensive SS, and I'm not sure his bat is dead. I really like Mayer, and playing him at 2B seems wrong, so maybe Mayer at SS and Story at 2B is the best choice. With 2B being the Sox weakest position for 5 years, I would not trade Mayer or Campbell. With Story's injury history- al the more reason. I think Mayer is on the 2025 opening day roster. DHam is the back-up. Rafaela is in CF and Anthony is traded in a package for a solid SP. Will Kristian Campbell placed in the same time table as the big 3? He is already 22 and plays in Portland. Is it possible for him to shift to CF and have Rafaela play short and Story second if Mayer does not pan out? I think Campbell starts 2025 in AAA and is a midseason call-up, if needed. We're very fortunate to have Rafaela because his ability to play short and center gives us tons of flexibility. Agreed, but ideally, Rafaela should be our 4th SS and 5th 2Bman. He is an excellent CF'er. He is one of just 5 rookies to ever have 10 Hrs, 10 SBs and 50 rbis at the AS break. At this point, the Sox may feel they need to extend/sign Pivetta and hope for the best from Giolito in 2025 and call it the day. We should be able to improve on Gio and Pivetta for 2025. Jansen will not be so easy. Trading Anthony (or Abreu) in a package for a solid SP'er and adding a closer should possible, even staying below the tax line. We can't make any bold moves without giving up top talent in my opinion. You can't have it all. Agreed. Trade Anthony or Abreu plus other prospects for a solid SP'er and sign a closer and 4/5 SP'er (maybe Pivetta.) Add a RHB like O'Neill or Kim (2B.) SP1 Houck SP2 Return on Anthony+ trade SP3 Crawford SP4 Giolito SP5 Bello Closer: FA (Jansen?) RP2: Hendriks RP3: Whitlock RP4: Slaten RP5: Winckowski RP6: Bernardino RP7: Kelly, Criswell, Weissert C: Wong, McGuire>Teel 1B: Casas 2B: Story, DHam (Kim) Campbell SS: Mayer (Story/DHam/Rafaela) 3B: Devers LF: Duran, Refsnyder CF: Rafaela (Abreu) RF: Abreu, O'Neill type (Refsnyder) DH: O'Neill type/Yoshida (Ref/Valdez) This looks solid!

Forget soxprospects.com. there are at least 10 pitchers in our system more promising than Dean.

Noah Dean; LMAO!!!

Bernardino has been fantastic in the vast majority of his games in 2024 and 2023. 2024: 34 Games 28 games with no ERs allowed 4 games 1 ER allowed in 1 IP or 1.1 IP (one as an opener) 2 really bad games (2 ER in 0.2 IP on 7/6, and last night's game 3 ER in 0 IP) Take away those two bad games: 31.1 IP 23 Hits 28Ks/13 BB 4 ER (1.44 ERA) 3 of 14 Inherited runs allowed to score (23% is 9% better than league avg 32% and team's 33%) 2023: 55 games 42 games with 0 ER 11 games with 1 ER 1 game with 2 ERs 1 game with 5ER Take away just 2 bad games: 49 IP 41 Hits 56Ks/15 BB 11 ERs (2.02 ER) 4 of 30 Inherited runner scored (13% was second only to Martin & better than Jansen's 17%) Total: 4 really bad games in 83 games 9 games with 1 ER allowed 70 games not allowing an ER. (7 out of 44 IR scored at under 16%) 2.94 ERA with Sox

It was a tough call, but I certainly see the point in wanting jansen vs the meat of the order with men on base. OPS Against 2024... vs LHBs: .533 Jansen .599 Slaten (IL) .620 Martin (IL) .618 Bernardino .653 Booser & Anderson .661 Kelly vs RHBs: .393 Kelly .507 Jansen .545 Slaten .597 Wink .634 Weissert .694 Anderson

I'm not sure if these guys have much trade value, but to me, these near ML ready prospects/young player are super blocked: E Valdez Meidroth Lugo Castro Paulino Kavadas/Hickey/Rosier

He will never replace Devers, but he could be 3B depth, if Devers gets hurt. I think his best chance at making the Sox 26 is at 2B/DH. I think he is blocked and could be traded. 2B: Story or Mayer (whichever is not the starting SS,) Campbell, Grissom, DHam, Romy, EValdez and Yorke make 7 guys ahead of Meidroth on the 2B depth chart. DH: Yoshida, Refsnyder, EValdez, Campbell, Yorke and maybe Kavadas & Lugo are ahead of Meidroth at DH. That's 6-7 above him. Even if he beats out Yoshida, why does he look better than Ref vs LHPs and EValdez vs RHPs or Campbell/Lugo/Kavadas/Yorke? If Meidroth learns to play LF, there are plenty in front of him, there.

Slipped my mind. Major Ooops!

I've talked about the depth and quality of our everyday players on the 40 and near ML ready non 40 prospects, and now I will talk about our pitching situation, going forward. While our staff is now 2nd in fWAR in all or MLB, I sill think it looks weaker, looking at 2025 and beyond than the other side of the plate. Of course, I believe our fielding is the weakest link of all, but pitching and batting matter most of all. (Baserunning is probably 4th.) As most of us know, we have some key pitchers reaching free agency, this winter, and perhaps others may never match this year's numbers again, but I won't speak to career highs or outliers, now. FAs to be by current IP: 81 Pivetta 3.87 (110 ERA+ and 3.66 FIP) 49 Anderson 4.59 (4 really bad games out of 23) 33 Jansen 2.16 (25 svs) 26 Martin 3.42 (on IL) It's hard to project what Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks and even I Campbell & Murphy might give us in 2025, and maybe it might be enough to replace what we are losing, but the closer slot is very worrisome for 2025. Perhaps Fitts can help from the farm, but he's about all we have, there, for 2025. Returning staff: 117 Houck 2.54 (hard to know what he will do in 2025, but looking good) 113 Crawford 3.04 (looking good, too) 90 Bello 5.32 (We need him to look more like 2023) 58 Criswell 4.50 (Maybe our Long man in '25?) 43 Slaten 3.38 (Could be key for 2025 success) 42 Weissert 4.32 (Hard to project) 41 Wink 3.27 (Tough to project) 37 Kelly 1.96 (Looking good, this year) 32 Bernardino 2.53 (a couple bad games should not shadow over a good '24) 31 Booser 2.90 (perhaps a fluke) 18 Whitlock 1.96 (looked great in 4 GS) 7 I Campbell 16.20 (was supposed to be pretty good) 0 Giolito, Hendriks & Murphy For 2025, I hope to see this: SP1 Houck SP2 __FA__ (or trade) SP3 Crawford SP4 Giolito SP5 Bello LR/SP Criswell (Fitts) Closer __FA__ (or trade) RP2 Whitlock RP3 Hendriks RP4 Slaten RP5 Kelly RP6 Winckowski RP7 Bernardino (or RP7 Criswell: see SP6) Weissert, I Campbell, Fulmer, Booser, Dobbins Horn, Murphy, Mata, Walter, Guerrero Needing just 2 pitchers does not sound like much, but the 2 needed are big needs: #2 SP and a Closer.

YES! Perhaps the shocker in all of MLB, when it comes to team WAR. Maybe, almost as surprising: SP 11.7 PHI (2nd in IP by SP'ers) 10.1 KCR (3rd in SP IP) 9.8 SEA (1st in SP IP) 9.8 ATL (6th) 9.5 DET (16th) 9.1 BOS (6th) 21st in IP, when IP is a big part of fWAR RP 5.0 CLE (9th in RP IP) 4.8 PHI (27th in RP IP) 4.1 CIN (16th in IP) 4.0 BOS 4th (10th in RP IP, and IP is a big driver of fWAR) 3.7 MIA (3rd) 3.1 MIN (26th)

I said I hope it is not a momentum stopper. It will take 2-3 more losses in the next 3-4 games for me to think the momentum has swung. If that happens, I suppose it might mean last night's loss was the start of a momentum change, but we would not know if it might have swung, even if we had won 1-0. I do not think one game, alone determines momentum in MLB. Other sports, maybe.

1 game might not mean they have changed the momentum, just as our loss last night, may not change ours.

Hard to blame the loss on one pitch.

It's one thing I go against what studies show.