moonslav59

From the 2024 Tax budget, we will be losing... AAV $17M Sale $16M Jansen $7.5M Martin $7.5 Pivetta $5.9 O'Neill ~$19M combine: $4.2M Turner opt-out, $2M Joely, $1.8 D Jansen, $1.5M McGuire & G Cooper, $1.4 Paxton & L Garcia, $1.3 Chase Anderson, $1M D Smith, $0.95 Sims and others. This totals to over $70M. We have some arb raises, but not many and all 3 are ARB 1's (Duran, Houck & Crawford.)

Only 5 teams have gone over in '22 and '23: NYY, LAD, PHI, NYM & SDP. PHI & LAD did in 2021, but that was before the new agreement, so I'm not sure that counts as 3 straight. Projected over for 2024: NYM, LAD, NYY, PHI, so 4 teams are looking at 3 straight. (SDP reset.) ATL, HOU, TOR and TEX will be over in 2024. (ATL, TOR & TEX were over in '23 but not '22, so they are at 2 years and HOU first year.)

Well, with a FT DH, it's hard to do. Also, we saw him change his resting strategy from 2023 to 2024. To me, I'd rather have Devers DH 10 games than sit 5 games. Same with Casas.

Good point. Abreu-Ref would be LF and Anthony RF.

Lackey did okay, once he got over the injury, but we ended up trading him. Clement did well, before the freak injury. Others were Tiant, Eckersley, Saberhagen, Cone, Seaver, Jenkins, Viola, Moyer, Smoltz, Avery, Tom Gordon (to pen), Burkett, Frank Castillo, Portugal, Penny, Masterson & Dempsey

There is a lot of talk about trading the LHB Abreu, but maybe we trade Rafaela and go with Anthony in CF and Abreu in RF.

Of course. I'd say 99% for 2025, it's 3B Devers, 1B Casas and DH Yoshida/Ref. 2026, maybe it's 95%, but things might change. Even if Yoshida is off-loaded, I'd still doubt we move Devers or Casas to DH. They may "rest" some days, there some days, but not as a FT option or 2 man share. (Maybe we see an EValdez-Ref DH platoon in 2025, if we trade Yoshida.)

This makes sense, and Bloom did invest in the pen. He spent more AAV on Jansen ($16M) + Martin ($7.5M) than on total SP AAV for any year, I can remember. '23: $10M Kluber + $4M Paxton = $14M '22: $7M Wacha + $5M Hill +$6M Paxton= $16M '21: $10M Richards + $5M Perez= $15M

We could always just keep Yoshida and hope he hits better the rest of the way, take the hit on his contract, while not paying for him to play somewhere else. That likely means keeping casas at 1B and devers at 3B for 3 years, or trade Casas for pitching.

If Trout agreed to DH ONLY, I'd trade Yoshida, Story and Giolito straight up.

I read that Whitlock is open to doing whatever the medical staff recommends for him to stay healthy.

If we finish in last place 5 more years, I'll still be grateful for 4 rings, but will have a slightly overall negative view on him. Nothing will take away that feeling of thankfulness to him and who he hired to get us to glory. I'm pissed at what he's done, but that does not mean I have to hate the guy. I'm pissed at what some of my family and friends have done, but I do not see only black and white.

He is different because he is the boss. He's not going to send himself packing, unless he's done with the effort, or thinks he can make more money elsewhere. He's not above accountability to the fans, but I guess it depends on how demanding a fan you are, or how much history factors into your length of leash. I admit, I got greedy after the first ring, after thinking for 3 decades, I'd be in heaven with just one ring in my lifetime. 6 years is a long time with just one playoff appearance. I will ask, who hired Lucchino? What about the 2018 Lucchino-less ring? Who allowed DD to go nutty on spending and trading prospects? I'm fine with crediting Lucchino, Epstein, DD and others more than JH, but I still think if we kept the same ownership as pre-JH, we might have 0-1 rings in my lifetime. I don't see the need to re-write history to vilify a guy who has let us down, recently (not that you are doing this.) JH was a major factor in changing the atmosphere of the organization towards winning.

I think we have a very solid 3 year window, and it may be longer, depending on how well our prospects do, and who we have or get to replace Houck and Whitlock, after 3 years. The good thing is, Yoshida's deal end in 3 years, too. I get the point about shortening the window, if we trade a top prospect or two, but I prefer we strengthen the 3-4 year window over lengthening it to 5-6 years. (It may still end up at 5-6 years, if we keep the right prospects and extend the right young players.) I've talked a lot about bottlenecks in the OF, middle infield and LHBs, but there is a way to play all the best, young players and prospects, if we trade other players- like Abreu or Rafaela and Grissom and or DHam. 2026-2027> C: Teel & Wong 1B/DH: Devers & Casas (EValdez 2B: Mayer, Grissom (Campbell/Cespeded '27>) SS: Story, Romy (Mayer, Romero or Arias '27>) 3B: Campbell, Meidroth LF: Duran (Ref & Jh Garcia '26>) CF: Rafaela or Anthony RF: Anthony or Abreu Of course, we don't get the return in trade that a top prospect gets us, by trading Abreu or Rafaela plus DHam.

It's not used like it used to be used.

I'd go.... 1. Ortiz (and not just because of the low cost.) 2. Manny (despite the last year) 3. Uehara (surprised not mentioned) 4. VTek (was technically a FA in 2005) 5. Damon (close call w VTEK at #3) 6. JD (maybe a tie for 3rd with other two) 7. Foulke (one great year) 8. Victorino (one great year) 9. Adrian Beltre (on 1 year deal) 10. Bill Mueller (big get) Honorable mention: Nate (missed time, but still did well) & Mike Lowell (2 good year out of 3 year re-signing in 2008), Napoli, Moreland, Nava (FA?), Cody Ross, Wakefield (re-sign), Renfroe, Carp

Agreed. If he were a FA, what sort of contract would he be looking at? $15M/3? $16M/4? If my numbers are close, we'd have to pay a sizeable chunk of is deal to trade him for basically nothing but salary relief. If that salary relief is applied to the winter spending budget, say from $30M to $35M AAV, that could make a difference.

Nobody likes being near .500, seemingly forever. That's on JH as much as anyone else, if not more so. I'm not happy. I probably don't have many Sox fans sharing my position. I'm glad he took over ownership and am thrilled with the results he helped bring about. I hope to hell, he isn't going to stay a miser the rest of his era, and if he does, my views on him will change, more than they already have, but I will always be eternally grateful. I honestly felt like I was going to die, never seeing the Sox reach glory. Of course, I want more, like everyone else. I'm just not so quick to turn on someone.

From 2023-2024, the Sox had two RP'ers in the top 20 fWAR: T16 Jansen at 2.5 T20 Martin at 2.4 As bad as our pen has been, we are about to lose our best two guys. Slaten offers some big hopes, as his 1.5 fWAR matched the high seasons from Martin (1.5 in 2023) and Jansen (1.4 in '24,) but we need more help than Hendriks and Fulmer promise. I'm sure Brez is aware and already looking for possible targets. I'll admit, I'm not expert on other team's best RP'ers and who might be available by trade, but maybe this can be the area we spend more money on. Jansen and Martin were not cheap, but we need a recommitment to this weak area on the team.

I'd like to see Detroit beat KC in the ALCS and SDP beat PHI in the NLCS. I'm always for the AL to win the WS, unless it's NYY or maybe HOU.

I could see that as part of the dynamic. I think he must also feel satisfied with just bringing one ring to an area that went over 80 seasons without one. The second, third and fourth were gravy, in some ways. He may feel like he's done enough and may never spend a ton, again. I guess we will find that out/

He won't be remembered like that by everybody, and IMO, not even half of Sox fans, after the recent anger wears off. Maybe younger fans, who didn't live through a decades long drought or don't appreciate how much it took to build the 2018 juggernaut might hold the animosity you have beyond his time as the Sox owner, but that's not how I will remember him. I won't forget this part of his time, here, but I won't forget 2003 to 2018 time period, either. I think most will view JH with some degree of mixed feelings. How he does from 2025 and beyond might make a difference, too. I remember fan being pissed at seeing some 2004 stars depart, then we shut up in 2007. Fans were irate after 2012, but then, ooops! The 2014 and 2015 seasons started bringing back unrest, before the 3 straight divisional championships happened under DD. 2018 was a perfect season, in many ways, and it seemed like the core was young enough to extend the window for at least 2-3 more years, but the dismantling began, almost immediately, when we let K & K walk after 2018. The last few years have sucked, bigtime. 2021 is barely a memory, anymore. I share the anger. It did not have to be like this. Letting Betts walk really sucked, but it went far beyond that, too. That being said, I think we are nearing another "window." Let's see how JH handles, this one.

Good stuff! I think Duran deserves it. Houck did very well, but wasn't all that unexpected. I think DHam's year was most unexpected, but he didn't play all that much, and most of the shock was more about just how bad we all thought he was to start with. Duran had some very nice numbers, last year before the IL stint/

I just watch the highlights, which is the best "eye test," according to the guys down at the gym.

I strongly disagree. JH spent more than other teams, many times. No other Sox owner comes close. I know Red, and maybe a few others, think JH was not significantly responsible for our 4 rings in 2 decades, but I do. I waited over 30 years to see the glory. I was thinking I never would. The guy may be a big __ fill in the blank___, but for over 15 years he gave what was needed to get it done. This does not put him above criticism, but it does add some context, I think is needed.