moonslav59

In the season of upsets, trying to predict one is near pointless. It's interesting to see Indiana still undefeated at 6-0 and having a bye week. They are 18th ranked, but could move up with a few more upsets. Here is this week's schedule: #2 Ohio St @ #3 Oregon #1 Texas @ #18 OKL #4 Penn St @ USC #9 Ole Miss @ #13 LSU So Carolina @ 7 ALA, #10 Clemson @ WF, Stanford @ #11 ND, #11 IA St @ WVA Next week's big games is GA @ TX and ALA @ Tenn

The first 2 seem like no-brainer high needs. The second two seem more complex and might be hard to do through adding players from outside the system. Infield defense can be greatly improved by just having a healthy Story. Perhaps, the best aspect of the 2025 roster is that Mayer may be an internal option at SS, if he does get hurt, and we won't have to rely on big K Rafaela to get 600 PAs, with half booting balls around at SS. The next solution has been discussed and is more complex: moving Devers to 1B and or DH. That will very likely not happen in 2025, but is there, if we want to do it. A good back-up catcher could help, a lot. On cutting down on K's. One easy way to do that would be to make Rafaela the 4th OF'er or defensive replacement and play Anthony FT. By not bringing back O'Neill, we'd lose our top K% guy at 34%. Casas and Story were both around 31%, so no relief there. Abreu was at 28% and should be traded. If rafaela at 26% is benched, we'd be losing 3 of our top 5 K guys from the line-up. Our lowest K guy was Yoshida, and nobody else came close to his 12,4%. He is also the talk of trade. Duran (22%) Wong (23%) and Devers (24.5%) were the next best. All look to be starters. This might be the best and easiest way to improve #4: 2024 Prospect K rates: 12.7% Meidroth (19% BB) 19.7% Mayer (9%) 19.9% Campbell (14%) 23.0% Teel (14%) 23.5% Anthony (15%)

You assume JH is going to keep cutting. I'm not sure. I don't think anyone can be sure. I'm not expecting more spending. I'm not expecting less. If I had to guess, I'd say we stay about the same or add $5-15M to the 2024 budget, and maybe stay near the same ranking (10-12th.) I seriously doubt we ever get to bottom 15, let alone bottom 10 or 5. If we do, I'll join in on the JH has to go chants.

Huh? All I talk about is adding pitchers and usually way more than anyone else. I've said, other than adding a one year back-up catcher, every penny and trade resource should be spent on pitching. If our need for pitching is overblown, I'm the overblown bandwagon driver. My point about harnony's statement was that he thinks we are overblowing the need, but that he may not think the need is not there, at all. He just thinks we are going too extreme. He's not alone. I mentioned adding 2 solid SP'ers and pushing Crawford to the pen, and a few posters strongly disagreed. (I said the same thing, last winter. I wanted Whitlock and Crawford in the pen.) I want our 5-8 pen guys pushed back to AAA. That's 4 new RP"ers, and would like one to be the closer and another to be a co-8th inning guys with whoever is the best from Whitlock, Slaten or Hendriks. (the "losing" 2 would be the 7th inning guys, Crawford the long man with maybe Criswell, too. If I was the GM, I might not be happy adding just 4 solid pitchers. Our need is not overblown.

It is concerning, especially because it has happened to some extent for 2-3 straight seasons, but the Devers injury was certainly one big reason for the stark drop off. I'm not one to read a whole lot into a 6-7 week sample size, but that doesn't mean those numbers should be totally discarded. Losing O'Neill looks worrisome, too, especially with the need for a big RHB, even when we had him, but consider this: we were 11th in runs scored in 2023, and many were complaining about how much worse we were going to be after losing our #2, 3 and 8 PA leaders who placed #4 (Duvall), #5 (Turner) and #7 (Dugo) in OPS+. (121, 119 and 103) Those 3 placed 2nd, 5th and 6th in RBI, while Turner and Dugo were 2-3 in runs scored. Nobody had much faith in O'Neill replacing Duvall and Dugo and a bunch of unproven young players being asked to play more. We finished 9th in OPS and .748 and 16th in wRC+ at 99! The league OPS was .734. In 2024, we saw the league OPS drop 37 points to .711, yet the Sox OPS only dropped 7 points to .741. We were ranked 7th not 9th. We moved from 16th to T10th in wRC+ at 104. Yes, we lose O'Neill, but that seems less worrisome than Turner, Duvall and Dugo. We should also see a healthier Devers and Story, but someone will get hurt, so counting on that seems too wishful. What can be expected is the natural age curve improvement levels for almost our whole line-up plus some big opportunities for major impacts from Anthony, Campbell or Mayer. I know I can get overly optimistic, but these guys are highly regarded by unbiased baseball people. While nothing is guaranteed, I think it is reasonable to expect an improvement, even if don't add any outside bats to the mix, except maybe a co-catcher for Wong. Grissom is 23. Casas and Rafaela are 24. Abreu is 25. DHam is 27 Devers, Duran, Wong & Romy are just entering prime at 28. Yoshida is still in prime at 31 and Story might be close at 32. Ref is 33 but is aging well. Not a single everyday player is post prime. Other than who we add as back-up catcher, the others on the 26 will likely be 21-23 year olds Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel or Meidroth. I'm looking for reasons to expect decline or stagnation and all I see is losing O'Neill or more injuries than we had, this year. I don't know why that should be expected. Tell me why we should not get better. I'm listening- really, I am.

"Overblown" does not mean we have no needs.

It's not rocket science. The Sox have more needs with pitching, and SEA has more needs with batting. That seems like the foundation for talks, but that does not mean a deal can be made. The odds are still long we make a deal with SEA, but the odds are probably better than most other teams. We are kicking around the Yoshida idea, and that is a real long shot, IMO. More likely they take Casas or someone else- not Yoshida. One never knows the players a given GM covets. SEA could really like a guy like DHam or see the upside in Romy of Grissom, and shock us. Maybe they want Abreu or Mayer more than we do. It's easy to say, "We have so and so already, but with SEA, they could trade anyone, at any moment and open a slot for Abreu or whoever.

We have 3 top prospects, all good hitters knocking on the door, and even if you don't have the faith in our current batters that I do, there is no doubt we have more capable hitters than pitchers. A batter for pitcher trade seems mandatory, to me. You can say it is a surplus of mediocre or slightly better than mediocre group, but it is a surplus. The deficit in pitching is stark. We could add a quality SP'er and 2-3 solid RP'ers and still come up short on pitching. I do agree that our batting is not a slam dunk plus for 2025, but if we have anything, we have too much quantity of batters, especially if 2 prospects earn a slot. At worst, we can probably trade Abreu and DHam for decent RP'ers and break even on offense with Anthony, Campbell and more from Story or Grissom or maybe Mayer/Meidroth/Romy.

Indeed. We'd likely have to still kick in some money for year 3 of Yoshida or add a SP'er like Criswell or Priester.

I was thinking Ray for Yoshida straight up. Doval did not have a good year. His WHIP was over 1.5. His ERA was near 5. He walked nearly 6 batters per 9 IP, but the 12 K/9 was good. Ray: $50M/2 Yoshida: $54M/3 I'd give Yoshida, Wikelman and Murphy for the two.

You'd think, once he realizes pitchers aren't throwing him strikes, he could just decide, before the pitch: I'm taking this, no matter what. Just by chance, he could get more walks of better pitches, when he decides, "I'm swinging, no matter what," like he seems to do, now.

I actually thought of Ray as an option, then forgot to bring it up. Yes, this is the type of deal, I think makes more sense than just handing Yoshida plus $12-13M a year away for nothing.

IMO, we have these "plus" batters: Duran, Casas & Devers Abreu, Ref , Yoshida and Wong (esp compared to other catchers) Anthony & Campbell (rookie years) Borderline: Story, Mayer and maybe a Grissom-DHam platoon, possibly Meidroth or EValdez on a platoon, only That's 9 with maybe 11 or 12. Most teams have 5 or 6, at best. A few have 7-8.

I'm not talking about removing Duran. Some have mentioned it, but way less than other suggestions. We have a surplus of plus batters.

As might a Bryce Miller or Luis Castillo one be, this winter.

Somehow, I missed this survey. Like Bell, I'm surprised at the Duran trade number. I don't see a contradiction in the idea on what we should do vs what we think we'll do. I'd vote no on us going over $241M. Hell, I'd vote no on going over $211M. My "ideal plan" would be to spend on pitching and make some small trades for more pitching or maybe a LHB-RHB swap. I would not offer a QO to anyone and think trading Yoshida would be good, but we won't find a deal worth it. (that's not a choice offered.) Who "should" DH? 90 games Casas and 72 games Devers (They play 1B when not DH'ing.) Wong should get the bulk of catching duties with someone like D Jansen on a 1 year deal, until Teel is ready. I'd say the FT CF job is Rafaela's to lose. I'd try Whitlock as the closer, first. Big 4 traded? I'd go with Mayer. I think 1 top prospect breaks camp with the big team: Anthony. (Abreu gets traded to make room in the OF.) The others will be delayed to gain an extra year. I'd give Brez a 5. We won't sign Burnes. My passion for the Sox has not wained. Do not sign Bregman. Trade Casas only for pitching and to move Devers to 1B. Play Campbell, Mayer or Grissom-Meidroth at 3B. (not a choice) My feelings on Bloom were meh ("bad") and have improved a little after watching some of his players/prospects do better.

SEA is well known for making a lot of trades, many surprising ones. I would not be surprised, if they surprise even you.

I'd set the odds at less than 1% we sign any of the 4 guys combined: Soto, Burnes, Fried or Adames. I'm not sure the group of Bregman, Alonso, Snell and Cole (if he can opt out) is much more than 1%. To me, our best bets for major FA signings are second/third tier: Flaherty, N Martinez, Nate, Manaea, Tanner Scott, J Hoffman, Estevez, Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, K Jansen, C Holmes, Sewald Maybe: O'Neill, Wacha, Bieber, Heaney, Severino, Lorenzen, Montas, Chapman, Robertson, Martin, Minter, Kittredge, Treinen

Everyone would rather have Abreu than Yoshida, but there are contexts needed to both ideas. Trading Yoshida means paying almost his whole salary to play elsewhere, for maybe a far-away, long shot prospect. The plus would be adding $3-6M AAV to our winter spending budget, while opening up a 26 and 40 man roster spot for a top prospect, who may or may not hit better than his 112 OPS+. Trading Abreu would bring back a much better return and ease the OF and LHB bottleneck, but not really add an open slot on the 26 or 40, unless we traded him for a not 40 prospect, who would surely be better than the one we might get for Yoshida. Abreu is also a plus defender, and I'm sure he'd move to DH. I could see us moving Rafaela to 4th OF'er (or platoon with Abreu.) vs RHP: Abreu LF, Duran CF, Anthony RF vs LHP: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF I'm still for the super, long-shot idea of using Casas and Devers at DH and 1B, with Devers backing up 3B, where Campbell, Grissom or Mayer start most games. (Meidroth could be extended 3B depth.)

And that is if we take them at their word. To me, their word means squat, and apparently squat is an "A-hole." It should mean we are prepared to trade a prospect or two (the future) for a shorter controlled player(s.) as in the present, but it still does not really address the need to spend more.

According to Steve the Ump's numbers, the Sox were within about $15-16M of being the top spender in MLB from 1998 to 2000. In 2001, we were just about tied with NYY for the #1 spending team. It's not like JH, took over a cheap-spending team. We already had Manny on the books. The Yanks pulled ahead in 2002 and were over $50M ahead by 2003, as the Sox dipped to 5th. In 2004, the Sox jumped to 2nd by adding $25M to the 2003 budget, but the Yanks added $30, and were still pulling away. We cut $4M going into 2005, while the Yansk added another $23M to their total. It was after this that the Yanks started cutting, while the Sox stayed about even. The Sox jumped up in 2007 by jumping $23M, while NYY cut $4M. In 2008, the Sox cut the budget, again, and the Yanks jumped theirs. We cut another $11M into 2009, but retained our 4th place ranking. The Yanks barely added anything in 2010, while the Sox splurged by jumping $40M and into 2nd place. PHI passed us in 2011, as we stayed about even. We dropped spending by $23M and ranking (3rd to 4th) in the 2013 championship season. That limited the complaining by fans, for a while. We added significantly in '14 and '15, but finished in last place. We were 3rd in spending in 2015 at $187M. We slowly added payroll, as the Dodgers passed us and NYY. We were at about $200M in 2017. We jumped spending by $35M in 2018 and went to #1. We stayed #1 in 2019, but then started the big slash and burn plan. Despite the massive cut, we still stayed at #3 in 2020 and 2021. Why we cut so much for 2022 remains a topic of angry debate, as we dropped to 6th, but in reality, we actually spent $15M more in '22 than '21 (tricked ya!) The difference was that many teams went nutty with spending, and that was the major factor in our srop in the rankings, that year. Cutting $20M for 2024 was the main reason we dropped 7 more slots, although we were still about $5M from being top 10. I'm not as sure as others that a clear trend of continuing cuts is underway. It looks almost impossible to determine an trend, except that we have not jumped spending significantly in a long time, and other teams are spending way more. What we decide to spend in 2025 is a total guess. Nobody knows, but maybe JH & Co. I'm not even sure they have decided, yet.

Adding 5, unless 4 are pitchers would squeeze the roster and force trades or the 2 or 3 for 1 type, or a 40 man guy for a non 40 guy trade or two. I just don't see Soto as a Sox player, unless we trade Anthony or Duran for a top pitcher. If it was up to me, and I had $75M AAV, I might go with: $30-35M SP $12-15M Closer $10-13 M Set-up RP (LH'd?) Let's say $55-60M on these three I'd spend the remaining $15-20M on a RHB Catcher on a 1 year deal (D Jansen?) and another decent pitcher. That's adding 5. I'd then trade Abreu and DHam for another pitcher, making the net roster gain 4. SP: __FA__, Houck, Bello, Gio, Crawford RP: __FA__, __FA__, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock __FA__, __Trade__, Fulmer/Criswell/Wink/Guerrero C: Wong, __FA__ 1B: Casas 2B: Mayer-Campbell, Grissom SS: Story, Mayer (Romy) 3B: Devers LF: Duran/Campbell/Refsnyder CF: Rafaela/Duran RF: Anthony/Campbell DH: Yoshida/Refsnyder The more quality route might work better: $35M SP, $18-20M closer, $15M RP, $5-7M Catcher (still trade Abreu and DHam.)

I seriously doubt we go so large and long on a bat, unless it is couple with a blockbuster trade of bats for a major pitching addition. Maybe, I'm letting my own wishes cloud my thinking, but I have to think, they know our area of greatest need is pitching. While we do have some promising arms at or near ML readiness (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin), and a core of promising young/younger pitchers already in the bigs (Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Slaten), it's not enough- either quality or quantity-wise. I would love to see us spend to the tax line or even go over, but I'll believe it when I see it. That is my mantra on winter spending. Show me the money!

Having faith it nationally and highly ranked prospects may not be misguided. Even "proven" hitters have letdowns. You go by what is expected, but it's almost always a dice roll. I'll go by OPS+ to put some factors into the numbers: 139 Devers 129 Duran and Refsnyder (Platoon) 120 Casas 114 Abreu (PLatoon) 112 Yoshida 110 Wong (excellent for a catcher) 104 Story 99 Romy, 92 DHam, 82 Rafaela (Grissom is a career 105 OPS+ guy.) If you count Abreu and Ref as one batter, we have 7 batters out of a 9 man batting order over 103. I'm not sure any other team had that. If a couple prospects can get to 103+, we might have 9 or 10 batters above that line. Almost all of these batters are pre-prime or prime. Only Story might be expected to decline due to age, and some could argue, he has already decline, sharply. Teel may not end up being a great batter, but he could easily match the catcher nrom for OPS+, after a year or two in the bigs. Mayer may take some time to meat the norm OPS+ for a middle IF'er, but I'll guess Anthony and Campbell would probably be plus hitters for their first full year in the bigs. That would give us 9 (10, if you count Abreu and Ref separately.) C- Wong (Teel by 2026-2027) 1B- Casas 2B- Mayer (Maybe Grissom-DHam platoon or Campbell) SS- Story 3B- Devers LF- Ref or Campbell CF- Duran RF- Abreu or Anthony DH- Yoshida or Ref v L Surely, we can part with 1-2 bats and still have more plus batters than most or all other teams. I am almost certain, we trade Abreu and maybe DHam for the best pitchers we can get in return. RHBs Grissom and Campbell will be given every chance to make the 26. Anthony will take Abreu's spot on opening day, IMO. Teel may be a year away. Mayer will depend on health- both his and Story's. I've been wondering, if we trade Mayer and have some faith in Campbell or the fallback of a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Of course, with no Mayer, what do we do if Story gets hurt, again? Romy? Rafaela? Eeeek!