moonslav59

Bleacher Report Mock Draft 1.0... 1. SS Ethan Holliday (HS) 2. OF Jace LaViolette (TX A&M) 3. OF Cam Cannarella (Clemson) 4. SS Brady Ebel (HS) 5. C Caden Bodine- Coastal Carolina 6. RHP Tyler Bremmer- UC Santa Barbara 7. OF Ethan Petry- So Carolina 8. OF Devin Taylor- Indiana 9. LHP Jamie Arnold- Fla St 10. 3B Xavier Neyens - HS 11. SS Wehlwa Aloy- Arkansas 12.RHP Seth Hernandez HS 13. 3B Trent Caraway Ore St 14. SS Coy James HS 15. OF Dean Moss IMG Academy 16. RHP Matt Scott - Stanford 17. OF Gavin Turley Ore St 18. RHP Cam Leiter Fla St 19. RHP Josh Hammond- Wesleyan Christian Academy 20. OF Ty Peeples- HS

What do I know? Vandy shocked Bama! I guess MLB is not the only sport moving towards parity.

I think he "timed the market" more often than not.

I think they would for the right one(s.) What I find prohibitive is that Bassitt has just 1 year, Gausman 2, and the multi-year, Berrios is expensive and getting old. I would not give a top 4 for any of them. I might give Mayer and Yoshida and $6-8M for Gausman.

I'm not so certain that will be the case 2-3 years down the line, but I'd be shocked, if we come within $5-10M of the line in 2025.

The Sale trade and Gio signings both went about as badly as anyone could even imagine. There is no sugar coating this. I'm not sure this means Brez cannot be trusted with any future deals or signings. It's a worry, for sure, as is any major deal made by any GM. Everybody oohs and ahhs about the Dodgers doing what it takes, but imagine what Sox fans would be saying, now, if we had splurged for Yamamoto, DD resigned Nola, who did well, but he also led his league in HRs allowed, and a 3.94 FIP is nothing all that great. The SFG spent bid on J-H Lee who did squat. They did much better with the Champan signings (the 10th highest contract handed out in 2024.) Josh hader did well, but did not help HOU get very far. ERod and Bellinger were the 6th highest paid signings. Meh. Blake Snell was #9. All-in-all the Ohtani , Gray and Chapman signings look like the only good top 10 signings, so far. I do think Brez out-Bloomed Bloom. His lesser deals are off to very good starts or still show some promise. Ammons for Slaten looks like a major steal for Brez. The Criswell signing for squat looks real good, even if he does nothing more for us, going forward. Dugo for Fitts, Weissert and Judice looks like it should be worthwhile and possibly a real good trade. Santos and Robertson for one year of O'Neill worked pretty well. People are saying O'Neill may now get a 4-5 year deal for over $70-80M. Schreiber for sandlin looks very promising. Urias for I Campbell did not start off well, at all, although Urias did nothing, too, but Campbell has several years of control left. All of these, combined, do NOT outweigh what we got from the Sale trade- year one, or the Gio signing- year one, but we may still get some value from those two, next year and beyond with Grissom. I can't say I have complete faith in Brez on his next biggest deals, but I'm not using his first two to suggest he should avoid making any more big deals. I'm hoping he makes one big trade and one big signing, and they work. The return of Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer might end up working out well, too.

Yup. In Sept... 1.186 Ref (just 19 PAs) .882 Sogard (30) .790 Story (72) .790 Casas (76) .787 Grissom (27) .774 O'Neill (84 and a FA) .700 Wong (83) .657 Romy (55) .633 Yoshida (78) .618 Jansen (38) .593 Duran (115) .517 Abreu (78) .512 Rafela (69) .496 Devers (75, playing hurt) .367 E Valdez (34)

I expect more production on O from 3B than 2B. That is one issue, but yes, if you just flip the two, it's the same. My point was only considering that Mayer + Story = only 162 games of SS and nothing else. In reality, it could be much more than 162 games. 162 at SS and maybe 81-120 at 2B or 3B. If that happened, Grissom would be squeezed out over Campbell in my plan. If Grissom is viewed as the better defensive 3Bman by more than the flip of Grissom vs Campbell at 2B, then yes, I'd prefer Grissom at 3B and Campbell at 2B. I happen to like DHam at 2B vs RHPs, and think a Grissom-Dham platoon at 2B would be okay, when Story or Mayer our on the IL (only.) I guess we could go: vs RHP: DHam at 2B and Campbell at 3B vs LHPs: Campbell at 2B and Grissom at 3B But it might be better to not jerk Campbell around. He needs to learn one position, first, IMO.

If STL is really looking at re-tooling, this winter, dumping Arenado and Sonny Gray's salaries might be something they'd like to start with. Gray is owed $65M/2 with a $25M x 2 CBT hit, and unless we plan on getting close to the line, this might not matter. Arenado is owed $52M/3 with a $25.5M CBT hit. (He has differed money, and I think COL pays some.) I know a team looking to retool does not want a guy like Yoshida and his $54M/3 still owed, but if they are able to shed $117M to add $54M, maybe whatever we add to the package makes them say yes. Would you give Casas and Yoshida for those two? Maybe add Fitts, Priester or Dobbins. Throw in DHam or Wink, if they want. Maybe Casas, Abreu and Yoshida? We'd get a quality SP'er for 2 years, a huge upgrade on 3B defense and push Devers to 1B and or DH. Our cost would be $63M over 3 years. The AAV hit would be $50.5M - $18M for a total of $32.5M for year 1 & 2. In year 3, Gray drops off and the Tax hit is just $7M more for Arenado over Yoshida. It might take Yoshida + Mayer. I'm not sure about that one.

Yes, the late season drop offs are very concerning, but nothings is more concerning that our pitching, IMO. To me, our 5-8 RP'ers should be our 8-11 RP'ers or even 9-12. I'd add a top 2 RPer and other top 4 RP'er, which would push back a couple of our top 4 into lower slots. We need a SP'er, badly. While I like Fitts, Priester and Criswell, I have way less confidence in them combined than just one of Anthony or Campbell and maybe even the oft-injured Mayer. Every concern you note about our bats can be easily doubled or even tripled when taking about our rotation and pen.

To me, the bigger reason to trade Anthony over Campbell is the larger return. I'm not so sure Campbell hits much better than Anthony vs LHPs, and we faced a LH'd starter 43 times, this year, which is only about 1/4th of our games. POR vs LHPs .893 Anthony (9th best in Eastern League) .813 Teel (17th) Campbell was at .865 but did not qualify for rankings. with smaller sample sizes at WOO: .925 Anthony .810 Campbell .431 Teel It's not always about being a RHB when it comes to hitting better vs LHPs. (I'd like to keep both and trade Casas or Mayer.)

I don't think it needs to be saved, but I'm also not saying I have complete confidence in it. I do not think clutch hitting is a skill-set, so I hope we do better there, next year. I'm going on the assumption that we have a limited winter budget and trading prospects or top producers is a long shot. I look at who we have and who we are losing. We lose one big bat and he's RH'd: O'Neill. That is nothing to neglect, but when I look at who we have to possibly replace him, I am more encouraged than when I look at who we have to replace Pivetta (our #2 fWAR SP'er), Jansen (our only clear closer) and Martin, our second best RP'er from 2023-2024. If the wallet is open wider than I expect, then maybe we can work on adding a solid RH bat for CF/RF, 2B or Catcher, but to me I have way less faith in Fitts/Priester /Dobbins to fill Pivetta's slot than Abreu-Ref, more OF time for Rafaela, plus Anthony & Campbell to fill O'Neill's void. I may be over simplifying things, but it seems like a very clear advantage to the bats. I maybe be wearing pink glasses to be hoping Story, Grissom and Campbell can take up a big chunk of O'Neill's bat v LHPs, but to me, my glasses are gray when looking at Fitts, Criswell, Priester and Dobbins. We could see an uptick from Houck, Bello and Crawford, and or a good year from Giolito in his big contract year coming up, but we need all 4 to come true and still need a 5th. That need is much greater than a RHB need or any positional need, other than catcher. With Teel in the wings, I can't see any catcher being added beyond a 1 year deal. What can we get for a one year RH power bat, catcher? Name one, and maybe I'll prioritize him above the second pitcher we need. I see our priorities as such: 1. Solid SP (1-2 slot) Big gap... 2. Closer or solid set-up RP'er (LH'd would be a big plus) 3. Another solid RP'er (if #2 is not a lefty, this one should be.) Moderate gap... 4. RHB (Catcher more than OF or 2B) 5. Pitching depth Tell me what slots you'd move around. I'm not pretending to be an expert on this.

I doubt we see too much movement in the NCAA rankings, this week, unless we see some huge upset. #24 Texas A & M throttled #9 Missouri, so maybe MO drops from the top 12, but that might be it. ND has a bye week before playing Stanford, next week. Next week has some top teams playing each other: #3 Ohio St at #6 Oregon (The loser will likely still be top 12) #7 Penn St at #11 USC (The loser could drop below #12, esp if USC) #12 Ole Miss at #13 LSU (The loser will drop below #12) #2 Texas at #19 Oklahoma (Texas would still be top 12 with a loss.) Of course, ND needs to win, but they may be ranked ahead of Missouri at #13 before next week. I'm not assuming anything with ND, but we could easily be top 12, after next week.

I guess, if we get an ace and replace Duran with Anthony, the step down to Anthony should be less than the step up we get from the SP'er over Fitts as our #5. (In theory.) Note: I am not for trading Duran. The kid does too much on the field, at the plate and on the bases to part with, but I do think anyone and everyone can be traded, if the return is better and fills a bigger need. I think trading Anthony is just as big of a risk. Trading Mayer, Campbell or Teel might be equally as risky, due to another 1-2 years of control over Duran. I do not see trading Arias, Cespedes or Bleis, now, when their stock might be low is worth what we'd get back. I've mentioned trading Abreu, DHam and Wink, but even all together, we won't get a top pitcher in return. We need to bite the bullet and choose one to trade from: Casas, Mayer, Teel, Duran, Campbell or Anthony. Houck is a top 7 trade chip, but we need SP'ing, so I don't include him. I seriously doubt any of these guys get traded, but to me, it will probably take trading one to get us what we need. I'm certainly not counting on JH to fork over the money needed to buy a top pitcher or two.

There is a lot of talk, down here, about the team not spending on keeping everyone: Bregman, Tucker and Framber, to name 3. In the past, they had players ready to step in to replace departing stars, especially with homegrown pitchers. They were able to not miss a beat, when they lost Springer, Cole, Correa, Morton, Keuchel, Verlander and a few others. Now, they already have some big holes with nobody in sight. Adding more holes by letting one or two of those big 3 go, will likely hurt more than those others lost. They still seem to keep adding homegrown pitchers, just about every year. This year, they had a ton of SP'ers on the IL for all or almost all of the season: Verlander, McCullers. Javier, Garcia, Urquiddy and France. Hunter Brown starts 30 games 3.49 (3.58 FIP) Ronel Blanco starts 29 at 2.80/4.15 Spencer Arrighetti starts 28 at 4.53/4.18 They trade for Kikuchi and the team goes 9-1 in his starts. They have a gaping hole at 1B (.651 OPS) and Pena dropped off on O at SS (.700 team OPS at SS,) but he's a plus defender. Their OF had a .721 OPS, but Tucker missed much of the season. Dubon and Myers played a lot of OF and were under .660. McCormick was the #4 OF'er at .576. If they spend to fix 1B and OF, then they can't afford to keep 2 of the big 3, I mentioned.

I don't disagree, but one could certainly think 6 years of Anthony will outproduce 4 years of Duran. Duran does have split issues, but I don't see him as being the "flash" Ellsbury turned out to be.

Speculation just is not some poster's "thing." I get that. We all know there is a fraction of a percent anything we suggest will come true. Even similar trades seldom come true. For some, it's fun to come up with ideas to hopefully improve the team. Listening to feedback is also part of the fun, for some of us. I think I've been thinking of trades since I was a teen. Call it nuts or pointless. It doesn't bother me. I see it as more pointless to just blast management and keep saying, "They will never do anything like this" to try and improve the team, and offer no constructive and specific ideas on how it might be done. Generalities are equally pointless, if you truly believe nothing will change.

I'd say more than half. I'm not expecting jack in return, even if we pay 2/3rds. I'm looking for a way to trade Yoshida to a team looking to cut salary, and taking back more salary than Yoshida, of pay down enough to make it a "saving" for the other team, but getting a useful, but higher priced, pitcher in return. I admit, it is a longshot, and we'd have to find the perfect fit and willing GM to even have talks of such a deal. More likely, we'd just trade Yoshida to a team and pay $12 of his $18M owed and get nothing significant in return. This would only be worth it, if we actually added the $6M x 3 years savings to another addition, or add that $6M to an offer and get a better pitcher as a FA. Spend $24M x 3, instead or $18M x 3 or $16M x 3, instead of $10M x 3 offers. I'm just talking theory and trying to find some actual examples of what it might look like. So far, I think I have failed in my suggested offers. I'm not sure anyone wants Yoshida, at even $6M x 3, but some teams might be looking to dump higher priced pitchers for someone other than Yoshida at $6M a year.

They won't. I admitted that. My continued talk was directed to the poster who thinks BOS would want more than Casas and Abreu. Hunter Brown is an ace, IMO.

T25th in fWAR is an ace to me. The guy has nasty stuff and is for real. I've seen him pitch a few times. It's not just stats. As for what it costs to get good FA pitchers, last winter may have been a "lucky" winter, but several pitchers with an AAV below or near Gio's did very well and look to continue being good. 18.5M x 2 Stroman 1.0 fWAR (119th) $16M x 2 Wacha 3.3 fWAR (25th) $16M x 1 Montas 1.4 fWAR (93rd) 15.0 x 3 Lugo 4.7 fWAR (6th) 14.0 x 2 Manaea 2.8 fWAR (43rd) 14.0 x 1 Flaherty 3.2 fWAR (28th) 13.25 x 4 Imanaga 3.0 (35th) 13.0 x 1 Severino 2.1 (61st) $7.5M x 2 Fedde 3.4 fWAR (22nd) Only 10 pitchers signed for between $13M and $19.5M AAV: only Gio, Gibson and Stroman came up short. That was a 70% hit rate. (80%, if you count Stroman as a success, which seems semi-plausible.) As a reference, our 2nd best SP'er was at 1.9 (Crawford at 76th) and Pivetta as at 1.8 (77th) I doubt we see that success in 2025 in this price range, and maybe their success will only act to drive up the price for mid-range signings, but it is possible to hit in this range. The Sox have sucked so badly, in this range and lower, that we tend to think it's a league wide trend. It was not in 2024.

Max, Houck is no longer a "no name," and Crawford and Bello have gotten notice, to some extent. While Giolito is a big question mark, he has shown he can produce. Sure, 2019 to 2021 seems like light years away, but his 11.3 fWAR in that time period was 0.1 away from 6th best in MLB. Our pitching was tied for 12th best in MLB, and we lose Pivetta (2.0 was 2nd best), Jansen (1.4 was 6th best) and Martin (0.5 was 8th best.) We are losing 3 of our top 8 pitchers. In contrast, we are losing one of our top 12 batters (O'Neill at #4 and a 2.5 fWAR.) Yes, he is a RHB,a dn we need help, there, but we do have Story and Grissom returning and Campbell offers much promise. Our offense ranked 11th in fWAR, so your point about pitching and batting needing equal attention is well founded, but with 3-4 rookies about to make an impact, all are batters. All offer way more promise than Fitts, Priester, Guerrero and Penrod. We also finished 9th in runs scored, but Fenway had an influence on that. We were 7th in team OPS but here is a surprise: T10th in home OPS (.742) and 8th in Away OPS at .740. Fangraphs has us 26th in fWAR on defense (-40.3.) and 25th in OAA at -18. To me, we need to roll the dice on O and hope some prospects contribute. Add a back-up catcher (maybe a RHB with power) and maybe trade a LHB for a RHB- Abreu or DHam pop in my mind. I just don't see where we put a RHB, except to platoon with Abreu, but if Anthony becomes a FT starter, only benching Rafaela offers a spot for a RHB. Defense needs to improve, but maybe a healthy Story will make a big impact. Anthony and Campbell may help, too. I seriously doubt we make any moves at corner IF, but that and catcher seems to be the only clear areas where a change could be made to greatly improve our D.

The $19M x 2 contract was the largest pitcher contract, since Sale & Nate, both in terms of AAV and total outlay. Of course, it's not like a 4+ year, but it's more than Jansen's $16M x 2, and in terms of SP'er signings. In an overall outlay winter SP'er budget, Gio's contract was not much more than the norm. Here is what we paid for SP'ers since 2020 (not counting minor league deals or under $1M deals): $6M in 2020: $6M x 1 Perez $15M in 2021: $10M x 1 Richards and $5M x 1 Perez $18M in 2022: $7M x 1 Wacha, $5M x 1 Hill and $6M Paxton (really $10M/2: see '23) $14M in 2023: $10M Kluber and $4M Paxton $19M in 2024: $38.5M/2 Giolito $19M in 2025, assuming Gio's option is accepted, plus whatever we might spend. From 2021 to 2024, we've spent between $14 and !19M AAV on the rotation. We already have $19M on the books for 2025, so let's see what happens...

Houston would want more than Casas and Abreu. Hunter Brown is an ace and pre-arb.

I admit, I am not sure how well Campbell or Mayer would do at 3B. Campbell has played there a handful of games, but I cannot see us going into a season with Grissom/Romy as the 3B plan. A lot of how anything we come up with depends heavily on the health of Story and Mayer, and making any plan the relies on both of them to be even 80-90% ready to play is asking for trouble. Our best hope on those two might be as simple as just wishing both are never hurt, at the same time, and just count on them both as one SS. Let's assume that, and any time both are healthy one could play 2B or 3B. The rest of the slots are tough calls. 2B: Campbell, Girssom-DHam, Romy, EValdez/Meidroth 3B: (Devers) Campbell, Grissom, Romy, Meidroth DH & 1B: Casas/Devers (Yoshida or Refsnyder-E Valdez) There are a lot of moving parts, here, and if both SSs are healthy, an actual logjam, but keeping all these guys, except maybe DHam is probably what happens, this winter, anyway. The OF is where something almost surely will go down. Even with the departure of our best power RHB in O'Neill, we still have a solid and deep OF. One can argue too deep, but many have some major flaws or question marks. Duran: He has jumped up by leaps and bounds and seems to have proven himself. He is now an excellent LF'er and plus CF'er on D. His offensive numbers are something no other Sox player has ever done, in terms of SBs, HRs, 2B+3Bs. We tend to think he has overcome the poor L-R splits, but he was only .665 v LHPs, this season- a big step down from last year's .749 v L. For those who love career stats (not me) he has these splits: .783 v RHPs and .586 v LHPs. Abreu: He has even worse splits (.842 v .515.) He plays a plus RF defense, which in Fenway is a plus-plus. He dropped off at the end of 2024, so questions abound about his ability to be an .800+ batter for a full season, and if he can ever overcome the god-awful L-R splits. I think he gets traded, this winter. Rafaela: he may be the best defensive CF'er in Sox history, but his big question is with the bat and plate discipline. The 10:1 K/BB rate is historically horrific. His ability to play SS is a benefit, but I don't think he should play there, again, unless in an emergency. Refsnyder: He should be a platoon DH, who can play LF vs LHPs, in Fenway. He is one of MLB's best batters vs LHPs, an area we need help, so he seems like a keeper for 2025. Anthony: He is MLB's top prospect, but as a prospect, there will always be questions. I'd like to hand him the CF or RF job to begin 2025, but have a solid back-up plan in place. Campbell: He might be best suited for the OF, but we seem to need IF help more.