moonslav59

If you can't count on Anthony more than Rafaela, Abreu and Ref, then why be against trading him?

Of course, the OF is better without a big trade. LF Abreu v R/Ref v L CF Duran (maybe Campbell v L with Duran in LF) RF Anthony 4th Rafaela But to improve pitching, we have to look at where we are strongest and deepest, and that is clearly the OF. I share the concern about trading Mayer. If Story gets hurt, I'm not sure Campbell is the defensive replacement Mayer would have been. I am probably more okay with a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B than others, but that's just me, and it's just in case of injury.

It's 2 years of Skubal, according to cots. Skubal makes $8.65M in 2025 (just what JH loves) and has a final arb year in 2026, which could break records, but still be just one year at below FA market value.

We have to give to get. When you look at our blue chip trade candidates, nobody wants to trade them, including me. To get what we need, the second and third tier trade chips just won't get it done. That is the reality. I think we need to identify one player from this group as being the least likely to help us over the next 3-5 years, and get the best return we can for him. (We could add secondary pieces, if needed.) Anthony, Campbell, Duran, Teel and Mayer (in order of who I'd like to keep most.) I'd trade Mayer, Abreu and Dobbins for the best pitcher we can get. We'd still have this core of everyday players and Fitts/Priester as SP'er AAA depth: C: Wong, __add__, Teel 1B: Casas (Romy/Wong) 2B: Campbell, Grissom-DHam SS: Story, Romy (Meidroth) 3B: Devers, Grissom/Campbell/Romy (Meidroth) LF: Duran/Ref CF: Rafaela/Campbell (Duran) RF: Anthony/Campbell DH: Yoshida/Ref (EValdez)

I'd add Rafaela and added package players like these, but only if we get a significantly better pitcher in return: Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins. I do not think it would be wise to trade Braden Montgomery, but the return would be more than Meidroth's and maybe Arias.

I love the idea of keeping the "fab four," and since all are ML ready or just months away from being so, we could start seeing tangible results in 2025. However, we can't deny the bottleneck situation in the OF and middle infield. We are not trading Story, even if JH & Co. wanted to. With Story and Mayer's injury history, we probably should not trade Mayer or Campbell (who could also play OF,) but maybe they think between Grissom, DHam, Romy and the two guys they don't trade, we'd be all set at middle IF for years to come. (Arias, Romero, Cespedes and others are in the pipeline, too.) If we don't trade Duran, Anthony or Campbell, that could be our OF, as soon as summer '25, and we could make Rafaela the 4th OF'er and trade Abreu, like almost everyone thinks will be. We could platoon Ref at DH with Yoshida, so that solves that bottleneck, but to get a really good pitcher, it's going to take a headliner like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Duran. Can we do it without a blockbuster? Yes, of course, but now we are back at hoping, wishing or praying for JH to spend way more. I'm sick and tired of that routine. If it happens, it happens, but I'm making suggestions based on it not happening, or only partially does.

Unless we make a blockbuster trade of Anthony (doubtful,) I'd bet on Abreu, the wrong side platoon OF'er, is traded. Many seem to think he's not worth much, due to not hitting LH'ers well, but he's still young, is a plus defender in a difficult position and has 5 years of pre-arb and arb control. He won't bring back an ace, but he might bring back a solid #3 SP'er (top 45-75 SP'er in MLB) of a real good RP'er- maybe a good RP'er and back-up catcher. I think we also will trade DHam. His stock might have peaked, and the running game is becoming more valuable, these days. Maybe package DHam with Dobbins or Priester for a better pitcher. Maybe trade him for a decent RPer or a good defensive catcher.

Only if it would part of a bigger plan to add elsewhere to get us over the top. Almost every ring we won, involved a blockbuster trade a year or two beforehand. All were top prospects, not a guy like Duran. I get that, but would the alternative of trading Anthony be a better idea? That is the "how a team with the resources of the Red Sox" often "addresses their needs." I'd be torn between trading one of those two, but we have a solid OF of 4-5 players. We don't get a top pitcher for Abreu or Rafaela. We have 3 middle infielders, but with Story & Mayer looking so fragile, trading an OF'er seems like the best idea for a blockbuster headliner. Yes, if JH spends much more than recently, we can cobble together a contender by signing and ace and closer and trading Abreu and DHam for a couple good RP'ers and a back-up catcher, but I'm not counting on that. Also, even if JH did agree to spend on what I just mentioned, I might still want a blockbuster trade to make it overkill. I think back to 2018, when some said DD "overkilled it," and didn't need to trade as many players as he did or spend as much as he did, and we'd still have won. I'd rather be sure, and plan on injuries or unexpected decline and still have a legit shot at glory.

I only brought up Skenes to make the point that anyone could be traded for a better return. I'm not sure we get Skenes for Duran and Mayer, plus Priester and Dobbins. Skubal has 2 years, so maybe they'd take Duran & Crawford plus Dobbins. Playoff teams don't often trade their ace for 3 pieces, though.

It's not "Rays-like," if we don't trade him for prospects. Any Duran trade would be for a top 20-30 SP'er, and we'd fill Duran's slot with Anthony, Campbell of Ref vs LHPs. We'd also, in theory, not spend much money getting this top SP'er and would have more budget space to add Tanner Scott and a top LH'd RP and maybe a better catcher than we normally could afford. The whole picture MIGHT make it worthy, but that takes a lot of "ifs," and with JH, I'm done "iffing" on spending on anything of real value.

He may be SEA's 3 or 4 starter, but he'd be our #2. SEA is not looking to trade salary, but they wheel and deal enough to see that by losing some salary with Castillo, they could add someone else to fill another gap. Maybe even sign a Nick Martinez for under what Castillo makes, now.

Skenes is with PIT and is pre-arb. He'd take more than Duran to get, but I used him as an example of someone I would trade Duran for. Nobody is untouchable, if the return is better and fills a higher need area. Shubal is with Tigers but has just 2 years of control. 4 years of Duran for 2 of Skubla makes we worry, too much. If he agreed to an extension, I'd do it, yesterday.

If it's Martinez and a couple decent pen arms, I'll be far fro won over, too. We need at a BARE MINIMUM 1 top SP'ers and 2 very solid RP'ers (one that might close and one a lefty set-up man.) I'd like 4 pitchers and a good back-up catcher, but would be okay with 3 major additions.

Good to see you back. We missed you!

The high salary would mean we would not get a mega return.

Anybody on my list worth Duran? I'd say the 1-2 years pitchers: no. I'd say the 2-3 year pitchers with big contracts: no. When you look at 3-4 year pitchers at low or arb costs, I'm listening. The 4-5 year pre-arb>arb pitchers in the top groups, I'd be leaning to a yes: Skenes would be a yes. I haven't looked at others w 4-5 low cost years left.

Just so you know, I'm not for trading Duran, but I'll trade anyone for a better return. Duran is not the best player in MLB. His 4 years of control do make him more valuable than a few players who might be better than him but have less control years or a huge contract. Would you trade 4 years of Duran for 5 years of Skenes? Just wondering.

How many aces are in MLB? Tell me when to stop, or where you draw the line. (Note: many "aces" have just 1-2, maybe 3 years of control, so 4 years of Duran will not get 1-2 years of an ace?) I'm going mostly by 2023-2024 best numbers... Skubal, Skenes, Wheeler, Webb, Sonny Gray, Sale Kirby, Cease, Gallen, F Valdez, Gausman, Steele Burnes, Cole, Snell, Bibee, Castillo, Strider Maybe 18 is the cut-off? Then... (#19 to 50) Ragans, Lugo, Pablo Lopez, Gilbert, Eflin, Nola, Glasnow, M Keller, Fried H Greene, C Sanchez, Kikuchi, Wacha, Suarez, Ryan, Ober, Houck, Nate, Peralta Crochet, Lopez, M King, Flaherty, Monty, Mikolas, B Miller,N Martinez, Singer, Berrios, Bassitt, Fedde, Luzardo

If the late games stay as is, here are the conference records: NFC: Minn 5-0, DET 4-1, GB, CHI, TB, WSH 4-2 (No NFC West team above .500) AFC: KC 5-0, Tex 5-1, BAL & PIT 4-2, BUF & LAC 3-2 (BUF plays Monday night.) Big surprises: 4-2 WSH NFC North all 4-2 or better.

I don't see it that way, but one really good SP'er and the rest spent on 3 quality pen arms is fine with me. People talk about Crawford's IP, but I'd prefer him as our long man. Too many HRs allowed. Maybe he was lucky so many were solo blasts- maybe not. I'd prefer not to find out. He had an ERA+ of 98. That's really not bad for a 5th starter, but I have Gio pegged for that slot, with an 81 and 90 ERA+, his last 2 full seasons. Besides, we know someone will get hurt, and if not, one of the 4 we got will likely take a step back. An ace pick-up would be awesome. We need to plan for something going wrong, instead of acting shocked, when it does. I think we have every position covered 2-3 deep, except catcher, so we add a decent 1 year catcher to go with Wong, and then improve our rotation and depth and pen. I like Fitts, Criswell, Priester and maybe Dobbins as rotation depth, but I'd prefer they were the 7-10 guys, not the 6. We do need a lot of pen help, and if the budget is limited, I can see going with 1 SP. Your point is valid. I think we can afford to trade Abreu and DHam for a couple nice pen guys, so I'm thinking sign one top RP'er like Tanner Scott and either sign a good SP'er or two, or trade a top prospect for one, and then sign someone like Nick Martinez, Kikuchi or Flaherty- and not a tier one FA SP'er.

I'd like to agree, but with better teams losing to worse teams, every week, I'm not sure it happens.

The 4 years of control is the kicker. Duran has proven himself. 4 arbs. There are some players better than Duran, but how many have 4 years of control at arb prices. He is among the top trade chips in MLB. I'm not sure what BTV gives him for a value, but it must be as high as several pitchers I call aces. To me, it would be all about the years of control of the pitcher we get, and the contract situation. Duran is not someone I want to trade, now is Anthony. I'd prefer we trade someone like Casas or Mayer, but they will not bring back what Duran or Anthony will do.

I'd rather we trade for a much better pitcher and use the money on the pen and maybe a second tier pitcher like N.M.

Welcome aboard. I'd love the deal, but I am certain AZ would not like the deal, even if Yoshida had just one year remaining on his contract. Maybe, if we paid Yoshida's deal down to the same as what Monty is owed, they might not hang up on us. I like the concept of the idea nd effort.

Valid point. I think we all know spending more usually increases your odds of winning. I think even Max would agree. There are other correlations to winning, as well- like great management. A strong farm 1-3 years before a window and maybe 1-2 into the window, if you want a long window is also very helpful. Are these more or less important than spending? Does it matter? Is having great management AND a strong farm for a 3-4 year period more important than spending a lot? The Astros would say "YES!" The Astros ranked 18th in spending in 2017. They did jump up to 11th in 2018 and 8th in 2019. They reached 4th in 2020, so one could argue they did spend big, but they had already won, before getting to top 8. They started dropping in the rankings before the Sox and were 7th in 2021 (Sox were 3rd.) In '22 they dropped to 11th (Sox 6th.) They were barely ahead of the Sox in spending in 2023. They let a lot of top talent players go: Verlander, Springer, Correa, Cole, Morton and more, yet they kept winning with great management, some huge farm infusions (and okay, some cheating, too.) This year, they jumped to top 4 again, and lost the first round of the playoffs. Spending matters, but there are never any guarantees in baseball.