moonslav59

Having faith it nationally and highly ranked prospects may not be misguided. Even "proven" hitters have letdowns. You go by what is expected, but it's almost always a dice roll. I'll go by OPS+ to put some factors into the numbers: 139 Devers 129 Duran and Refsnyder (Platoon) 120 Casas 114 Abreu (PLatoon) 112 Yoshida 110 Wong (excellent for a catcher) 104 Story 99 Romy, 92 DHam, 82 Rafaela (Grissom is a career 105 OPS+ guy.) If you count Abreu and Ref as one batter, we have 7 batters out of a 9 man batting order over 103. I'm not sure any other team had that. If a couple prospects can get to 103+, we might have 9 or 10 batters above that line. Almost all of these batters are pre-prime or prime. Only Story might be expected to decline due to age, and some could argue, he has already decline, sharply. Teel may not end up being a great batter, but he could easily match the catcher nrom for OPS+, after a year or two in the bigs. Mayer may take some time to meat the norm OPS+ for a middle IF'er, but I'll guess Anthony and Campbell would probably be plus hitters for their first full year in the bigs. That would give us 9 (10, if you count Abreu and Ref separately.) C- Wong (Teel by 2026-2027) 1B- Casas 2B- Mayer (Maybe Grissom-DHam platoon or Campbell) SS- Story 3B- Devers LF- Ref or Campbell CF- Duran RF- Abreu or Anthony DH- Yoshida or Ref v L Surely, we can part with 1-2 bats and still have more plus batters than most or all other teams. I am almost certain, we trade Abreu and maybe DHam for the best pitchers we can get in return. RHBs Grissom and Campbell will be given every chance to make the 26. Anthony will take Abreu's spot on opening day, IMO. Teel may be a year away. Mayer will depend on health- both his and Story's. I've been wondering, if we trade Mayer and have some faith in Campbell or the fallback of a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Of course, with no Mayer, what do we do if Story gets hurt, again? Romy? Rafaela? Eeeek!

In theory, SEA could trade Castillo for hitting and then signa FA SP'er for the same or less money, of the Sox could just sign a SP'er at Castillo's cost and keep the bats.

Does SEA have any other SP'ers in the pipeline that are ML ready? That could allow them to trade a SP'er for a batter or two.

The chase rate and K rate were off-the-charts bad- like MLB historically bad by a long mile. I did not expect that, but his MO has always seemed to be that somehow he gets enough hits, despite swinging and missly, so often. He kinds kept that mystique going, especially for that 6-8 week stretch. It's hard to know where he goes, from here. You know they have tried to get him to be more selective- to little avail. He may just end uo being who he is and scrape by with the minimal OPS needed to survive, or just end up as a defensive replacement with some baserunning skills. He'd be a nice 4th OF'er in 2025, but I think they give him another very long look, next year. I hope his infield days are over, but if he gets more chances there, maybe he can be a super-sub type.

Agree on all of this, but I'd hate to lose Monegro or Jh Garcia. JhG only played 30 games in AA, and he still hit over .700. That's not too bad for someone who was in the FCL in '22 and A- to start '24. I'd probably be safe and protect JhG. I think Fulmer is supposed to be ready by opening day, but then again, Hendriks was August 1st 2024.

I almost mentioned that, and we sure could have used 66 IP at a 3.35 FIP, but I'm not sure I'd say he " burned" us. He still had a 1.35 WHIP, fueled by his 4.3 BB/9 rate. Still, lots of Ks and few HRs is why his FIP was decent.

Yes, it is possible to be good for a long window, without spending. Mostly, you have to suck for a long stretch, like BAL and HOU did, or be masters of ML scouting, like the Rays are.

I kinda feel like, for a first full season, he did about what the expectations were. Remember, JBJ started off way, way, way worse that this, and for a couple of seasons.

The Angels, too, but the Trout idea is just to fish-smelling.

I am not sure we spend even $55M, and $115M would give me a heart attack. I'm at the point, where I will be surprised just spend more than 2024.

Why not Story, too? Story, Gio and Yoshida for Yamamoto! LOL

2012, too.

Too bad, huh? They might be one team that would take the contract, if we included someone they really want.

Depending on who we protect, here are some possible prospects that could be drafted, plus some notable names on the list: Hunter Dobbins, Michael Fulmer (almost certainly will be protected) Jhostynxon Garcia (I'd be safe and protect him.) Yordanny Monegro (22nd ranked on soxprospects,com and projected AA in '25) Alan Castro (16th ranked on sp's. & projected AA in '25) Notables: Grant Gambrell (part of Beni-Wink trade,) Blaze Jordan (3rd rd pick in '20 & 28th ranked), Bryan Gonzalez (20 HRs in 327 ABs,) Nathan Hickey, CJ Liu, Alex Binelas (from Renroe-JBJ trade,) Noah Song, Chrisopher Troye

We've been losing a lot of players to Rule 5, recently, but none have seemed to burn us, just yet. 2 of 10 players taken in 2023 were Sox (Drohan & Fernandez) We traded for Slaten, who was taken by the Mets. In 2022, Ward was taken first, Politi 9th & Song 11th (3 out of 15) That's 5 Sox prospects out of 25, in the past 2 dratfs, combined.

I wonder if the top brass has had a sit-down on their winter strategy. If so, I would have loved to be a fly on the wall. Brez has had a full year to evaluate who we've had on the 26 (over 40 players) as well as gaining a better understanding of many of our prospects and their values. He's probably already determined a few players that do not fit into his philosophy. I won't pretend to know who those players are. I also think, if Brez is going to do something bold, he's going to have to identify a player/prospect or two, who he may really like, but will have to part with to fill some key need areas we have, right now. I'm not sure who that might be, as well. With the injury issues with Story, one could argue trading Mayer would be a huge risk. It's hard to argue with that. If both are healthy and playing well, we could probably find a slot at 2B or maybe even 3B, if Brez is bold enough to move Devers to another position. Then there is Campbell, who could play 2B or maybe 3B of OF. Counting on him to win a middle IF role might be pushing it, so soo, We also have what could be a decent 2B platoon of Grissom and DHam, and some hopes that Romy is blooming into a nice role guy. Meidroth seems better suited for 3B, but he offers some ML depth, at SS and 2B, too. (I'm not counting Rafaela as middle IF depth, but it's hard to ignore, especially with Anthony threatening to crowd the OF more than it already is.) The OF was our biggest plus, this year. O'Neill is a FA, but we can use Rafaela full time in the OF, and Anthony seems like the most "ready" prospect in the nation. Counting on a rookie does not ever seem like a solid plan, but in this case, maybe we will have to do just that. Duran is a lock, despite some issues vs LHPs, and his defense has taken a big jump forward to the point where he can be counted on in CF or RF. Abreu has to prove he can hit LHPs to be full-timer, and we may not be able to afford him the opportunity to do so. Refsnyder is the opposite split guy, so he matches up well with Abreu, but his defense is not good enough to play RF. That complicates an Abreu-Ref straight platoon, and one could suggest Ref platoon with Yoshida at DH, instead. Assuming no return of O'Neil, no Abreu trade and Anthony starting in Woo, we could maybe roll out this vs RHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RH and vs LHPs: Refsnyder LF, Duran CF and Rafaela in RF. I'm betting on Anthony to be a full timer, sooner rather than later. That would probably mean Abreu gets traded, but who knows? Another option might be Campbell in the OF, especially if we end up making the biggest splash of all, and trade Anthony. With so many moving pieces, it opens up opportunities to trade almost anyone, or even a selected two players. It seems like we have no idea if any big trade will be made, nor any idea on who we trade, if we decide to get bold.

Just trying to find out, if he met or fell short of pre-season expectations.

Yup, and they also made deadline trades, when they had a shot at the playoffs. Lots of low spending teams suck for long periods and never get like the O's are now. The Astros did it, too, and stayed a top team for 7-8 years. They may extend that, if they decide to spend more, now.

I get that. My question was, what did you expect Rafaela to hit in 2024, back in March. I would have guessed .650 to .680. Once he started heating up, I was thinking .700 to .725, but he slumped, badly at the end.

Trading Betts made dumping half of Price much easier. We are still paying the price for that trade. I'm not sure that is a good example on how we can or might dump Yoshida. I would not look for someone to take Yoshida, if they wanted Duran or Casas with him, unless we get some young and controllable pitcher who looks to be an ace. How many rebuilding teams who would love to have Mayer, would agree to take on Yoshida or 3/4 Yoshi. I guess there might be someone, and maybe Brez needs to get real creative, My guess is, Yoshida will be our DH, next season.

Agreed, and it's all going to come down to the willingness to pull the trigger, and how well Brez chooses the right guys to keep. He missed on Sale, but I do think he had some valid reasons, and 2024 was apparently not part of the "open window" period, anyway. I guess, one could argue, however, that had Brez used the $19 AAV from Gio and signed Lugo, Imanaga or Wacha and not made the Sale trade, we'd have made the playoffs and "opened the window wide." He seemed to do okay to good on getting Slaten and Fitts. The jury is still out on Priester, Sandlin, Weissert and I Campbell. Brez will have very little room for error, this winter and simply CANNOT have a major miss like Gio and the ATL trade. The budget JH hands him will be important, but so is how B rez uses it and his trade capital. Get it done, Brez!

The Orioles are 23rd and were 27th, last year. Minnesota is another team that seems to make the playoffs, often, while being in the middle or lower third of the team budget rankings. While spending on more FAs does help some teams, some don't seem to be able to sustain winning for very long. GO TIGERS!

It could be more than Abreu, or a prospect, if they prefer that. It's not easy finding a trade partner to balance a salary dump trade, since they would likely prefer to dump the whole salary and get young talent in return. The idea is to allow them to still save some money, and maybe get a better return by agreeing to take Yoshida plus some cash but not a big chunk as part of the package. We all saw what including half-Price to the Betts trade did to the return. Something on those lines. Maybe someone takes Yoshida, if we package him with Mayer, or Mayer and Abreu. One would assume a decent return player might be received.

There is a theory that a manager can rest his players at DH on some sort of rotation. Instead of giving a player 5 days of total rest, you can DH him 10-15 times and stay in the line-up 162 games (for the good hitters, only.) The idea of Casas and Devers sharing 1B and DH also could help both stay healthier and not miss any line-ups, at all. 81 games at DH and 81 at 1B, each. That being said, I'm not for trading Yoshida just to add $2-3M to the winter AAV amount Brez is given. I'd rather just keep him at DH and hope he does a little better. Trading other players will bring back better returns. The idea of trading Yoshida for a high-priced pitcher was just a theory. I came up with the Guasman example, and said I doubt TOR does it, unless they rest of the return package helps their longer term outlook (like Abreu would) AND save them some money, as we could pay down enough to tilt the money balance in their favor. There are other high priced pitchers on teams looking more toward the extended future than 2025 & 2026. I just hope we kick all the tires on trading Yoshida, because I think our team can get much better by opening up slots for Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, while letting our poor defenders DH or move to less important positions. I seriously doubt moving Devers off 3B will happen, this winter, but it would be one big way to improve the defense, without hurting the offense or costing Brez a penny.