moonslav59

According to spotrac, half the teams in MLB were under $148M (also under $170M.) 5 teams were between $62M and $99M. Another 5 were between $100M and $119M. On the top side: NYY & NYM $308M to $314M (with deferred money keeping LAD lower.) HOU, PHI, LAD between $240M and $255M ATL, CHC, TEX & TOR: $218M to $237M SFG & BOS $188-202M STL, AZ, LAA & SDP $170M to $175M

The thing is, only one team gets to sign Soto. Even if all owners spent a lot, there would always be have and have nots, and contract prices would go up, even more. It seems one way to "fix" it is to have a cap and a hard floor: like maybe $160M to $240M, with the floor always being at least 66.6% of the cap. Maybe have situations where going over the cap is allowed, in certain situations. The penalty system is not working.

I don't doubt we end up doing what MVP suggests: just 1 pitcher (likely not Burnes or Fried) and not a top line RP'er added, somehow. I read the Dodgers and Teoscar are not close on numbers, and they just signed Conforto, so maybe we get TH. Walker makes some sense, too. HOU seem to be high on him, and they will be losing Bregman. I'm braced for another letdown.

With the $75M signing bonus counted in, Soto will make more than several teams in 2025.

Sadly, I agree. If we get 2 quality SP'er and push Crawford to the pen, we may be just barely okay. By "quality," I don't think 2 from these quys will be good enough: Flaherty, Pivetta, Nate & Manaea.

Top FA's on the market, ranked by MLBTR w estimate: 2. Burnes $200M/7 (He may get $245M+/7) 3. Bregman $182M/7 (may get $210+M/7) 6. Fried $156M/6 (may get $200M/7)______ 7. Alfonso $125M/5 (I guess we could trade Casas.) 8. Flaherty $115M/5 (maybe him + Manaea/Nate would be okay.) 9. Santander $80M/4 (Not much talk about him as a Sox.) 10. Manaea $60M/3 (Manaea + Nate + Hoffman?) 11. Teoscar $60M/3 (Consolation prize for no Soto?) 13. C Walker $60M/2 (see Alfonso) 14. Scott $56M/4 (I still want him, badly.) 16. Profar $45M/3 (I'd rather just play a kid in the OF.) 17. Eovaldi $44M/2 (The kind of contract JH might like.) 18. Hoffman $44M/4 (If we get just 1 SP'er, I think we need Hoffman, at min) 20. Torres $36M/2 (Not a fit for us, unless we trade Campbell.) 22. Estevez $27M/3 (consolation prize for missing on Scott & Hoffman?) 24. Pederson $24M/2 (I don't see the fit.) 25. Heaney $24M/2 (This would be the Bloom signing.) 26. Hye. Kim $24M/3 (Nope) 28. Pivetta $21M/1 (Will get 3-4 years) Quintana $20M/2, Scherzer $16M/1, Buehler $15M/1, Gibson $13M/1 Verlander & Sugano $12M/1, Ogasawara $12M/2, Morton, Lynn, Cobb, Junis Minter $16M/2, yates $14M/1, Kittredge & Soroka $14M/2, Kahnle 413M/1 K Jansen or C Martin, Sewald, Robertson $11M/1 H-S Kim $12M/1, Carson Kelly or Diaz (catchers)

This deal makes the Ohtani deal look much better, and the Betts deal look like the steal of the decade. I do not see a major increase in secondary contracts, though. Most are coming in slightly higher than MLBTR's projected amounts. Snell got $30M more than projected, but I count him as a first tier signing. Adames got an extra year, but the money was close. ($182M/7 vs projected $160M/6- more money/less AAV) The secondary signings, so far: Actual Contract/ MLBTR Estimate $63M/3--$60M/3 Kikuchi $67M/3--$51M/3 Severino (significantly more) $49.5/3--$42M/3 O'Neall $38M/3--$30M/3 Holmes $29M/2--$25M/2 Boyd $34M/3--$22M/2 Montas (significantly more) $20M/2--$8.5M/1 D Jansen (LESS) $18M/2--$17M/1 Conforto (significantly more AAV) $13.5M/2--$15M/2 Higgy $26M/2--$12M/1 Bieber (significantly more) Third Tier: (No estimate from MLBTR) $22M/2 Treinen $10.75M/1 Chapman $12M/2 d'Arnaud $8.5M/1 G Sanchez

I'm glad he'll be in the NL.

To me, the first priority has to be adding an ace or two high quality SP'ers. Burnes or Fried (or a trade) If we get two, without Burnes or Fried, I'm thinking Eovaldi and Crochet. I top SP and a top RP'er might push us to the line of the bare minimum needed for our staff to improve, significantly.... Something like Fried and Hoffman or Nate and Scott. This is the least we can do to come close to what is needed. We lost Pivetta, who some seem to undervalue. He's been a top 4 IP guy on the Sox for 4 straight seasons, while averaging a 2.3 bWAR per year. (Nate gave us 1.7 per year from 2019-2022, also 4 years.) We also lost the two best RP'ers we've had since Kimbrel in 2018. That's the best 2 in 6 years. Just to break even, we need to do a lot. True, we are also, in a sense, adding Giolito, Fulmer and maybe much more time from Whitlock and a little more time from Slaten. Our AAA SP'er depth looks better than in a long time: Criswell, Priester, Fitts & Dobbins. If we add a top pen piece or two SP'ers and a decent RP, which would push Crawford to the pen, our minor league pen depth would look decent, assuming the MLB 8 would be _____, Chapman, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson. The AAA pen: Guerrero, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Fulmer, I Campbell, Booser, Mata. Next, has to be adding a defensive catcher. This need not cost much and could be on a 1 year deal. Maybe Teel can be ready late 2025 or to start 2026. The big RHB might have to be a luxury, but if we end up trading Casas, one of our best lefty on lefty batters, the loss of O'Neill will be multiplied. I have previously talked down the idea of signing Bregman, but I like what it would do to our defense. With a healthy Story at SS, our defense could go from bottom 5 to top 10- top 15 almost for certain. We may need to count on a prospect or two to get us over the hump. That is never ideal, but even if we add Bregman, Fried, Estevez and Carson Kelly, we may still need Campbell or Anthony to rock the house.

I could see that happening, perhaps more than Fried, Crochet & Teoscar/Santander

He has shown some signs of decline, in the last 2 years, and has had some very slow starts. We could use a second half hitter, though.

Treinen to Doadgers, also. $22M/2

Could we see this? Fried or Burnes Teoscar Hoffman or Estevez Trade Mayer for Crochet I'm not a luis Robert fan. He's 26 and bats RH'd. He's owed 25:$15M, 26:$20M club option ($2M buyout). 27:$20M club option ($2M buyout) Word is the CWS want a lot for him, but I do think Mayer for Crochet is too much. Would you give Mayer, Rafaela and Sandlin for Crochet and Robert? (How about with Abreu not Rafaela?)

Conforto to LAD for $17M/1. Does this mean they are not so hot on Teoscar?

I wonder if Cohen did indeed pay $50M more than the next best offer. I'm not sure if even $715M/15 would have been good for the Sox. We can't assume JH will keep the wallet open for 15 more years. Eventually, a Soto contract would mean some lean support around him- like it or not.

Maybe, if we get an extension as part of the deal. (I can't remember when that last happened.) I'm kinda losing my love for Mayer, but it does seem like an overpay for 2 years of guy who has very few seasons of showing he can pitch very well over many innings. I do think keeping Anthony and Campbell are more important, and with Wong looking crappy on D, I think we need to keep Teel.

I really wanted Soto, but $765M/15 is absurd money. $51M a year. I'm glad he's on the Mets not the Yanks, but that kinda money might have crippled the Yanks for 15 years. Now we have the Yanks and Dodgers plus others to battle with over Fried, Burnes, Teoscar, Bregman, Scott....

Just this evening... MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

I'm a big fan of Abreus, but Mayer should be 5, and where is Houck?

If we end up trading Mayer for Crochet, our SS depth (after the fragile Story) leaves something to be desires, at least in terms of defense: Rafaela Romy-Sogard DHam-Grissom Campbell- Meidroth Romero (2026) Crochet is not enough. We'd still need to sign Fried or Burnes for it to work. Even those two are not enough. We could still use Hoffman or Estevez and a decent defensive catcher. Add that to a returning Whitlock and full, healthy seasons from Story, Devers, Casas, Slaten, Giolito, Hendriks and Fulmer, and maybe- just maybe....

With costs for good players going through the roof, maybe this now makes sense... MLBTR reports: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

It means to me, that no one GM ever gets all the prizes. That does not excuse us missing out on all of them. I've laid down what I think is the minimum we need to do to feel like we can be relevant, again, and hope we can go a step or two above that suggestion. With 5-10 other teams in on the same guys we want, it's not easy. Why should we think JH can outbid other equally rich owners? Here is my minimum list: 1 from Fried or Burnes 1 from Bregman, Teoscar, Scott, Flaherty or Eovaldi Carson Kelly or the like. One step better: 2 from the second group or 1 plus Hoffman, Estevez, Santander or Walker/Alfonso or same as minimum, but trade for Crochet, Lopez or someone similar. Two steps better: 1 from Fried, Burnes and 1 from Bregman & Scott. A trade for someone like Crochet, plus Scott or Hoffman. (This ain't happening.)

With today's contract costs, he's now a bargain, at his age.

JH can "afford" to sign the top remaining 5 FAs, but what does that mean when several other owners can, too?

He has said he wants to play with the Dodgers, and it's hard to imagine us throwing that much more money at him to et him to choose Boston. If we miss out on Soto, who is left? Bregman? (Devers to 1B- Casas to DH or another team?) Teoscar? Santander? Walker or Alfonso? (Trade Casas and keep Devers at 3B?) It has to be pitching, pitching pitching, but I doubt we get 2 out of these three: Fried, Burnes and Scott. Maybe one plus Nate or Hoffman. Maybe one, plus a trade for another. Is just Fried, Hoffman and Carson Kelly enough? (Not for me.)