moonslav59

I'd set the odds at less than 1% we sign any of the 4 guys combined: Soto, Burnes, Fried or Adames. I'm not sure the group of Bregman, Alonso, Snell and Cole (if he can opt out) is much more than 1%. To me, our best bets for major FA signings are second/third tier: Flaherty, N Martinez, Nate, Manaea, Tanner Scott, J Hoffman, Estevez, Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, K Jansen, C Holmes, Sewald Maybe: O'Neill, Wacha, Bieber, Heaney, Severino, Lorenzen, Montas, Chapman, Robertson, Martin, Minter, Kittredge, Treinen

Everyone would rather have Abreu than Yoshida, but there are contexts needed to both ideas. Trading Yoshida means paying almost his whole salary to play elsewhere, for maybe a far-away, long shot prospect. The plus would be adding $3-6M AAV to our winter spending budget, while opening up a 26 and 40 man roster spot for a top prospect, who may or may not hit better than his 112 OPS+. Trading Abreu would bring back a much better return and ease the OF and LHB bottleneck, but not really add an open slot on the 26 or 40, unless we traded him for a not 40 prospect, who would surely be better than the one we might get for Yoshida. Abreu is also a plus defender, and I'm sure he'd move to DH. I could see us moving Rafaela to 4th OF'er (or platoon with Abreu.) vs RHP: Abreu LF, Duran CF, Anthony RF vs LHP: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF I'm still for the super, long-shot idea of using Casas and Devers at DH and 1B, with Devers backing up 3B, where Campbell, Grissom or Mayer start most games. (Meidroth could be extended 3B depth.)

And that is if we take them at their word. To me, their word means squat, and apparently squat is an "A-hole." It should mean we are prepared to trade a prospect or two (the future) for a shorter controlled player(s.) as in the present, but it still does not really address the need to spend more.

According to Steve the Ump's numbers, the Sox were within about $15-16M of being the top spender in MLB from 1998 to 2000. In 2001, we were just about tied with NYY for the #1 spending team. It's not like JH, took over a cheap-spending team. We already had Manny on the books. The Yanks pulled ahead in 2002 and were over $50M ahead by 2003, as the Sox dipped to 5th. In 2004, the Sox jumped to 2nd by adding $25M to the 2003 budget, but the Yanks added $30, and were still pulling away. We cut $4M going into 2005, while the Yansk added another $23M to their total. It was after this that the Yanks started cutting, while the Sox stayed about even. The Sox jumped up in 2007 by jumping $23M, while NYY cut $4M. In 2008, the Sox cut the budget, again, and the Yanks jumped theirs. We cut another $11M into 2009, but retained our 4th place ranking. The Yanks barely added anything in 2010, while the Sox splurged by jumping $40M and into 2nd place. PHI passed us in 2011, as we stayed about even. We dropped spending by $23M and ranking (3rd to 4th) in the 2013 championship season. That limited the complaining by fans, for a while. We added significantly in '14 and '15, but finished in last place. We were 3rd in spending in 2015 at $187M. We slowly added payroll, as the Dodgers passed us and NYY. We were at about $200M in 2017. We jumped spending by $35M in 2018 and went to #1. We stayed #1 in 2019, but then started the big slash and burn plan. Despite the massive cut, we still stayed at #3 in 2020 and 2021. Why we cut so much for 2022 remains a topic of angry debate, as we dropped to 6th, but in reality, we actually spent $15M more in '22 than '21 (tricked ya!) The difference was that many teams went nutty with spending, and that was the major factor in our srop in the rankings, that year. Cutting $20M for 2024 was the main reason we dropped 7 more slots, although we were still about $5M from being top 10. I'm not as sure as others that a clear trend of continuing cuts is underway. It looks almost impossible to determine an trend, except that we have not jumped spending significantly in a long time, and other teams are spending way more. What we decide to spend in 2025 is a total guess. Nobody knows, but maybe JH & Co. I'm not even sure they have decided, yet.

Adding 5, unless 4 are pitchers would squeeze the roster and force trades or the 2 or 3 for 1 type, or a 40 man guy for a non 40 guy trade or two. I just don't see Soto as a Sox player, unless we trade Anthony or Duran for a top pitcher. If it was up to me, and I had $75M AAV, I might go with: $30-35M SP $12-15M Closer $10-13 M Set-up RP (LH'd?) Let's say $55-60M on these three I'd spend the remaining $15-20M on a RHB Catcher on a 1 year deal (D Jansen?) and another decent pitcher. That's adding 5. I'd then trade Abreu and DHam for another pitcher, making the net roster gain 4. SP: __FA__, Houck, Bello, Gio, Crawford RP: __FA__, __FA__, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock __FA__, __Trade__, Fulmer/Criswell/Wink/Guerrero C: Wong, __FA__ 1B: Casas 2B: Mayer-Campbell, Grissom SS: Story, Mayer (Romy) 3B: Devers LF: Duran/Campbell/Refsnyder CF: Rafaela/Duran RF: Anthony/Campbell DH: Yoshida/Refsnyder The more quality route might work better: $35M SP, $18-20M closer, $15M RP, $5-7M Catcher (still trade Abreu and DHam.)

I seriously doubt we go so large and long on a bat, unless it is couple with a blockbuster trade of bats for a major pitching addition. Maybe, I'm letting my own wishes cloud my thinking, but I have to think, they know our area of greatest need is pitching. While we do have some promising arms at or near ML readiness (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin), and a core of promising young/younger pitchers already in the bigs (Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Slaten), it's not enough- either quality or quantity-wise. I would love to see us spend to the tax line or even go over, but I'll believe it when I see it. That is my mantra on winter spending. Show me the money!

Having faith it nationally and highly ranked prospects may not be misguided. Even "proven" hitters have letdowns. You go by what is expected, but it's almost always a dice roll. I'll go by OPS+ to put some factors into the numbers: 139 Devers 129 Duran and Refsnyder (Platoon) 120 Casas 114 Abreu (PLatoon) 112 Yoshida 110 Wong (excellent for a catcher) 104 Story 99 Romy, 92 DHam, 82 Rafaela (Grissom is a career 105 OPS+ guy.) If you count Abreu and Ref as one batter, we have 7 batters out of a 9 man batting order over 103. I'm not sure any other team had that. If a couple prospects can get to 103+, we might have 9 or 10 batters above that line. Almost all of these batters are pre-prime or prime. Only Story might be expected to decline due to age, and some could argue, he has already decline, sharply. Teel may not end up being a great batter, but he could easily match the catcher nrom for OPS+, after a year or two in the bigs. Mayer may take some time to meat the norm OPS+ for a middle IF'er, but I'll guess Anthony and Campbell would probably be plus hitters for their first full year in the bigs. That would give us 9 (10, if you count Abreu and Ref separately.) C- Wong (Teel by 2026-2027) 1B- Casas 2B- Mayer (Maybe Grissom-DHam platoon or Campbell) SS- Story 3B- Devers LF- Ref or Campbell CF- Duran RF- Abreu or Anthony DH- Yoshida or Ref v L Surely, we can part with 1-2 bats and still have more plus batters than most or all other teams. I am almost certain, we trade Abreu and maybe DHam for the best pitchers we can get in return. RHBs Grissom and Campbell will be given every chance to make the 26. Anthony will take Abreu's spot on opening day, IMO. Teel may be a year away. Mayer will depend on health- both his and Story's. I've been wondering, if we trade Mayer and have some faith in Campbell or the fallback of a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Of course, with no Mayer, what do we do if Story gets hurt, again? Romy? Rafaela? Eeeek!

In theory, SEA could trade Castillo for hitting and then signa FA SP'er for the same or less money, of the Sox could just sign a SP'er at Castillo's cost and keep the bats.

Does SEA have any other SP'ers in the pipeline that are ML ready? That could allow them to trade a SP'er for a batter or two.

The chase rate and K rate were off-the-charts bad- like MLB historically bad by a long mile. I did not expect that, but his MO has always seemed to be that somehow he gets enough hits, despite swinging and missly, so often. He kinds kept that mystique going, especially for that 6-8 week stretch. It's hard to know where he goes, from here. You know they have tried to get him to be more selective- to little avail. He may just end uo being who he is and scrape by with the minimal OPS needed to survive, or just end up as a defensive replacement with some baserunning skills. He'd be a nice 4th OF'er in 2025, but I think they give him another very long look, next year. I hope his infield days are over, but if he gets more chances there, maybe he can be a super-sub type.

Agree on all of this, but I'd hate to lose Monegro or Jh Garcia. JhG only played 30 games in AA, and he still hit over .700. That's not too bad for someone who was in the FCL in '22 and A- to start '24. I'd probably be safe and protect JhG. I think Fulmer is supposed to be ready by opening day, but then again, Hendriks was August 1st 2024.

I almost mentioned that, and we sure could have used 66 IP at a 3.35 FIP, but I'm not sure I'd say he " burned" us. He still had a 1.35 WHIP, fueled by his 4.3 BB/9 rate. Still, lots of Ks and few HRs is why his FIP was decent.

Yes, it is possible to be good for a long window, without spending. Mostly, you have to suck for a long stretch, like BAL and HOU did, or be masters of ML scouting, like the Rays are.

I kinda feel like, for a first full season, he did about what the expectations were. Remember, JBJ started off way, way, way worse that this, and for a couple of seasons.

The Angels, too, but the Trout idea is just to fish-smelling.

I am not sure we spend even $55M, and $115M would give me a heart attack. I'm at the point, where I will be surprised just spend more than 2024.

Why not Story, too? Story, Gio and Yoshida for Yamamoto! LOL

2012, too.

Too bad, huh? They might be one team that would take the contract, if we included someone they really want.

Depending on who we protect, here are some possible prospects that could be drafted, plus some notable names on the list: Hunter Dobbins, Michael Fulmer (almost certainly will be protected) Jhostynxon Garcia (I'd be safe and protect him.) Yordanny Monegro (22nd ranked on soxprospects,com and projected AA in '25) Alan Castro (16th ranked on sp's. & projected AA in '25) Notables: Grant Gambrell (part of Beni-Wink trade,) Blaze Jordan (3rd rd pick in '20 & 28th ranked), Bryan Gonzalez (20 HRs in 327 ABs,) Nathan Hickey, CJ Liu, Alex Binelas (from Renroe-JBJ trade,) Noah Song, Chrisopher Troye

We've been losing a lot of players to Rule 5, recently, but none have seemed to burn us, just yet. 2 of 10 players taken in 2023 were Sox (Drohan & Fernandez) We traded for Slaten, who was taken by the Mets. In 2022, Ward was taken first, Politi 9th & Song 11th (3 out of 15) That's 5 Sox prospects out of 25, in the past 2 dratfs, combined.

I wonder if the top brass has had a sit-down on their winter strategy. If so, I would have loved to be a fly on the wall. Brez has had a full year to evaluate who we've had on the 26 (over 40 players) as well as gaining a better understanding of many of our prospects and their values. He's probably already determined a few players that do not fit into his philosophy. I won't pretend to know who those players are. I also think, if Brez is going to do something bold, he's going to have to identify a player/prospect or two, who he may really like, but will have to part with to fill some key need areas we have, right now. I'm not sure who that might be, as well. With the injury issues with Story, one could argue trading Mayer would be a huge risk. It's hard to argue with that. If both are healthy and playing well, we could probably find a slot at 2B or maybe even 3B, if Brez is bold enough to move Devers to another position. Then there is Campbell, who could play 2B or maybe 3B of OF. Counting on him to win a middle IF role might be pushing it, so soo, We also have what could be a decent 2B platoon of Grissom and DHam, and some hopes that Romy is blooming into a nice role guy. Meidroth seems better suited for 3B, but he offers some ML depth, at SS and 2B, too. (I'm not counting Rafaela as middle IF depth, but it's hard to ignore, especially with Anthony threatening to crowd the OF more than it already is.) The OF was our biggest plus, this year. O'Neill is a FA, but we can use Rafaela full time in the OF, and Anthony seems like the most "ready" prospect in the nation. Counting on a rookie does not ever seem like a solid plan, but in this case, maybe we will have to do just that. Duran is a lock, despite some issues vs LHPs, and his defense has taken a big jump forward to the point where he can be counted on in CF or RF. Abreu has to prove he can hit LHPs to be full-timer, and we may not be able to afford him the opportunity to do so. Refsnyder is the opposite split guy, so he matches up well with Abreu, but his defense is not good enough to play RF. That complicates an Abreu-Ref straight platoon, and one could suggest Ref platoon with Yoshida at DH, instead. Assuming no return of O'Neil, no Abreu trade and Anthony starting in Woo, we could maybe roll out this vs RHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RH and vs LHPs: Refsnyder LF, Duran CF and Rafaela in RF. I'm betting on Anthony to be a full timer, sooner rather than later. That would probably mean Abreu gets traded, but who knows? Another option might be Campbell in the OF, especially if we end up making the biggest splash of all, and trade Anthony. With so many moving pieces, it opens up opportunities to trade almost anyone, or even a selected two players. It seems like we have no idea if any big trade will be made, nor any idea on who we trade, if we decide to get bold.

Just trying to find out, if he met or fell short of pre-season expectations.

Yup, and they also made deadline trades, when they had a shot at the playoffs. Lots of low spending teams suck for long periods and never get like the O's are now. The Astros did it, too, and stayed a top team for 7-8 years. They may extend that, if they decide to spend more, now.