moonslav59

So far, yes. I agree. I would not say Grichuk makes up for O'Neill, but it would be a step. It looks like we will be relying on health, players improving as they near peak prime and a couple platoons to make up the rest and then some. Hope is NOT a plan.

Mets sign Minter. Pirates give us non 40 man roster LHP Matt McShane for Shugart.

Well said.

There is a reason Papi was never our top paid player.

I don't want us to sign Bregman for 2B, but if we do sign him, I doubt he'd stay at 2B for 4-6 years. (I hope not, at all.)

I agree. Add a lock down closer and these guys look like a nice set-up group: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten & Whitlock.

Another difference I see for 2025 than 2024, is that I do not think we will be forced to go outside the system to plus in holes in the pitching staff. This does not mean the pitchers we use in our system will do better than last year's imports, but it should be more seamless. 2024 imports: Joe Jacques, Bailey Horn, Trey Wingenter, James Paxton, Yohan Ramirez, Quinn Priester, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims, Brad Keller, Rich Hill

Indeed, it could. (Add Whitlock and hendriks and maybe more to your list.) The thing is, we probably don't need all of the returning players to do well or even play many more games: we just need a few and no major injuries to someone else. Players who did not play one game in 2024 for the Sox: Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval, Hendriks, Chapman, Narvaez/Sabol/Zavala, Wilson, Fulmer and J Moran. Players who missed a lot of time in 2024 with an injury: Whitlock (25+ GS,) (Story (120+ gms) & Casas (90+ gms) Plus Chris Murphy & Mata. Players who missed some time and or played hurt for a significant amount of time: Devers, Yoshida, Slaten, Refsnyder & I Campbell. Players who were AAA or prospects in 2024, and could see more time in the bigs, if needed, in 2025: Criswell, Weissert, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Penrod, DHam, Romy, Grissom and others. Prospects who could get "the call" in 2025: Campbell, Anthony, Mayer & Dobbins These lists are so long, that we could withstand substantial injuries and still be okay, as longs as they are not all at once, or all at SS or one key position. The list of healthy 2024 players returning is short: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Wong, Houck, Crawford & Bello. I can't imagine the list of 2025 healthy players being shorter than this.

Thinking the Sox will win any large auction is not something I'm willing to trade value for the chance to find out. It's easy just say, trade and extend, but Vlad will only extend to very close to what he things he'd get in an auction similar to Soto's. (It was not just the Mets bidding near, at or over $700M.)

The Yanks lost Soto, Torres, Verdugo, Holmes, Cortes, Trevino, Kahnle and a couple others. They added Fried, Devin Williams, Bellinger, Goldschmidt & Alex Jackson/Fernando Cruz. I'd say this is not an improvement, overall. The O's lost Burnes, Santander, E Jimenez, Slater, J Webb and a couple others. They added Tyler O'Neill, Charlie Morton, Kittredge, Sugano & G Sanchez. I'm not seeing a gain, here. The Astros lost Tucker, Bregman, Kikuchi, Verlander, Neris and a few others and added Paredes, Walker and Wesneski. Clearly a losing offseason. The M's lost Polanco, Turner, Y Garcia, J Rojas and a few others and added 2 guys: S Solano & Mastrobuoni. Hard not to see a drop off, here. The Guardians Lost Naylor, Cobb, Boyd, Gimenez and others and added Santana, Hedges and Luis Ortiz. Not seeing a gain. The Royals lost Singer, DeJong, Frazier, Grossman, Gurriel, Pham, Will Smith and added J India, lorenzen & Wiemer. The Tigers got better: they lost nobody and added G Torres and Cobb. The Twins have added nothing and lost 6-7 players- nothing great.

Sox-Duran agree on $3.75M.

Of all the teams ahead of us in 2024, who got better?

Why would he extend to anything not close to what the Mets might pay? (Word is, Alonso will not be a Met. Guess who needs a 1Bman?)

There is no way the would do that, and IMO, they should not. I doubt they fork over one third of what Vladdy will get to sign Bregman.

It can't hurt to have minor league depth, but I have this guy 25th to 30th on my pen rankings.

We could go over the tax line by signing Bregman & Scott and trade Mayer for Sean Murphy to become AL faves. 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 3B/1B 5. R Murphy C 6. L Yoshida/R Refnsyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Abreu/ R Rafaela RF 9. R Story SS Bench: Wong. DHam, Rafaela or Abreu and Ref or Yoshida SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero

With Anthony ML ready, and Campbell able to play OF, if needed, I'm not sure O'Neill was a good fit. If we go for a RHB OF'er, it would likely be a 1 year guy, like maybe Grichuk. Ideally, we add a plus D catcher or 3Bman who bats RH'd and has some power- the more: the better. Sean Murphy (via trade) or Bregman (FA) seem like possible choices, but at what cost. I still think our bbats will be fine, but I get the argument that we should seek "elite" batters and not settle on just being a top 10 offense, especially since our defense is bottom 10. We should seek to be a top 5 hitting team, while maybe moving the D up to middle tier, for now. However, I still have closer as out highest need. We've added, a lot, this winter, but IMO, we could be a top contender if we can fix 2-3 of our top 5 high need areas: 1. Closer 2. Catcher who is plus on D 3. RHB (Could fill our #2 or #5 need, too) 4. Another decent RP 5. 3B defense (1B D might be 6th) One addition, like Murphy or Bregman could fill 2 needs. Tanner Scott would fill our top need. Just one of these ideas might be enough: two of them would get me really excited about 2025.

We have added much more than it appears, and we also lost O'Neill, K Jansen, Pivetta, D Jansen and Martin. We don't need much, but I think I'd change "another reliever" to a "lockdown closer" and "cheap RHB" to a legit RHB- better if he can play plus D at C or 3B.

Maybe I'm just dreaming, but Bregman of Scott are possible. More likely, Estevez & Grichuk and we trade Abreu for a catcher.

I do think we get Bregman. I just wonder, "why him?" Of all the good players who were FAs after Price, this is the guy we target? I'm just really underwhelmed, despite the fact that adding him improves numerous weak areas on the team. I'm not for trading Casas for Arenado and Herrera, unless they take Yoshida +$8M x 3 from us. I was thinking Abreu, Cespedes and Fitts for Herrera & Helsley.

But how do you comp a guy who gets just 2 years of "FA market" type money vs one who gets 5?

I could see that. Maybe .320 35 120

I still think Bregman is not "the guy" who is the largest FA deal since Price in 2016. That being said, he checks 2- maybe 3 boxes off my top 6 highest needs list: 3. RHB (not the best RHB out there but fits the need) 5. 3B defense 6. 1B defense (assuming Devers is better than Casas at 1B D.) Is that worth $160M/6 or $180M/7? (You know what we spend on him means that it won't be spent, later.) Is this team better? Sign Scott & Grichuk and trade Abreu for Herrera. (It's way cheaper, shorter commitments and checks the 3 top boxes: 1. Closer 2. Catcher defense 3. RHB

Alcantara might be the closest comp. He was 25 when he signed. He had some success and under 500 IP, before signing. The differences: He was facing the first of 3 arb seasons and added 2 years of control. That's not a big difference, but going for 4 or more years after team control runs out is a pretty big step and should cost much more than the 2 years Alcantara got. The two years were at $17.3M, each. Would it have been a higher AAV had he got 4 years. What would be the "adjustment" for that? Now, take that adjusted number and index for inflation. Is $20M too low? Is $28M too high? Is about $25M about right? If you multiply Alcantara's $17.3 x 4, it would be about $70M- no adjustments. I'm not thinking $80M/4 is a proper adjusted number. There is a reason most arb players who extend only add 1-2 years, not 4-6. That is what really makes our suggested offers unique.

Both Devers and Casas hit so well, they far outweigh their poor defense. It's not even close. I think Casas is one healthy season away from being a 40-120 batter. Clearly 1B and 3B are not the reason we play .500 ball, but there is a way to keep their bats in the line-up, while greatly improving the corner IF defense. Corner IF defense may not be the highest priority or even top 5, but it should be something we consider fixing, if we can find a way to do it, without creating a new issue, or causing the net value of our team to get worse. I'm fine with keeping them where they are, if we address some other areas, adequately- like closer, catcher defense and a power RHB. Another RP'er might be my #4, but to me, corner IF is #5 and is high enough to consider finding ways to fix it, without losing the two bats- Devers and Casas from the line-up. i've discussed, over and over how the Yoshida at DH FT issue causes a major headache, when considering a Devers-Casas timeshare at 1B/DH, and maybe that's reason enough to just run back that part of the 2024 team.