moonslav59

It makes sense that when Bloom failed to trade Sale, they may have pressure Brez to do it, or move other high salaries. Even clearing some cash from Sale, still left Brez with a limited budget. The Devers extension was set to kick in, so I won't count that as "new spending," but it was likely part of a tightening of the winter spending of '23-'24. (They also lost some salary by shedding Verdugo & others.) $19.5M x 2 Giolito $7M/1 O'Neill trade $5M x 2 Hendriks $2M x 1 Joely We can bitch about teh "failure to upgrade," but what can you do with about $33M AAV, when you had a losing season, then subtracted Sale, Dugo and others? had Gio pitched like this in 2024, we'd say he did a pretty good job with $33M, despite Henriks & Joely's lack of help.

I'm assuming "everyone" is only with prospects. IMO, if we keep Arias, Romero can be traded. Sandlin is borderline.

I agree. I doubt they make this trade with zero return or just Bello & Tibbs. I agree on the "pool" analogy, as well, but that increased pool ($20M for 2 years then $30M more for 6 more) will translate into tangible players, as long as JH doesn't go cheap, along the way (again.) I'm hoping JH spends even more than the estimated $76M we may have below the tax line, this winter. I'd like to see him get just below the 1st tier, minimum, so about $95M to spend: $30M SP $18M Closer $25M 1B $22M back-up Catcher plus extensions to Anthony & Mayer. (Take some from 1B, if we need more for extensions.) Trade Duran or Abreu for a key piece (Maybe with prospects for Ryan.) SP: Crochet, Cease, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts, Tolle & Early RP Helsley, Whitlock, Slaten, Houck, Hicks, Murphy, Perales, Sandlin, Weissert, Alcara, Guerrero, Kelly, I Campbell 1. L Mayer 2B 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Abreu RF/ R Romy DH 4. L Anthony LF 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida DH/ R Refsnyder RF 7. R Hoskins 1B (L Casas/ S Toro) 8. R Narvaez C (_____?) 9. R Rafaela CF (R Jh Garcia?) This looks damn good, to me.

I agree. I doubt they make this trade with zero return or just Bello & Tibbs. I agree on the "pool" analogy, as well, but that increased pool ($20M for 2 years then $30M more for 6 more) will translate into tangible players, as long as JH doesn't go cheap, along the way (again.) I'm hoping JH spends even more than the estimated $76M we may have below the tax line, this winter. I'd like to see him get just below the 1st tier, minimum, so about $95M to spend: $30M SP $18M Closer $25M 1B $22M back-up Catcher plus extensions to Anthony & Mayer. (Take some from 1B, if we need more for extensions.) Trade Duran or Abreu for a key piece (Maybe with prospects for Ryan.) SP: Crochet, Cease, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts, Tolle & Early RP Helsley, Whitlock, Slaten, Houck, Hicks, Murphy, Perales, Sandlin, Weissert, Alcara, Guerrero, Kelly, I Campbell 1. L Mayer 2B 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Abreu RF/ R Romy DH 4. L Anthony LF 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida DH/ R Refsnyder RF 7. R Hoskins 1B (L Casas/ S Toro) 8. R Narvaez C (_____?) 9. R Rafaela CF (R Jh Garcia?) This looks damn good, to me.

I think we will try very hard to avoid this deadline looking like a punt on 2025. That means keeping Bregman, Chapman and Giolito. If we can somehow trade Duran or Abreu for MLB talent, then it won't be punting. (Perhaps we trade an OF'er for prospects, but then also trade some prospects for a player equal to the traded OF'er's value to balance it out.) I hope we don't make major prospect trades for rentals, but I'm fine with trading some mid levels for rentals, like the Nate & Schwarber deals from past deadlines- hopefully not like the Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims and Urias deals from recent seasons. I keep mentioning Joe Ryan, but someone like him would be a major score. Trading the farm away for Gallen & Suarez would not be my idea of a good idea. We'd have to win a ring, this year to make it work, and it still could come back to bite us, later on. Trade Duran or Abreu. Add or trade separately players like Wong, Grissom, DHam, Eaton, Toro, Kelly, Guerrero and maybe Buehler, but more to just make roster room than to get something useful in return. Add or trade separately some mid level prospects like Arias (top end) or Romero (not both), Bleis, Cespedes, Jordan, Castro, Jordan and prospect pitchers like Sandlin, Early, Paez and Mullins. If guys like Perales and Monegro have little trade value due to injury issues, keep them. In short, I'd try to keep the rookies, Tolle, Garcia, Clarke and Valera, unless we get something more than a rental. (I'm not sure I want to trade Arias for just a rental, either, but maybe if we can get Gallen & Suarez as part of a big package of mis prospects + Duran/Abreu.)

We can't know which money was spent where, but if we spend near what our budget was to start 2026, I'll be thinking we spent the money that replaced all the departing contracts, including $21M for Buehler, $19M for Gio, $12M for Chapman and smaller deals departing as well. If we use some of all this money to extend Anthony and other younger players beyond the arb window, I'd consider that as using "some" of the Devers savings, too. Cots has us $76M under the tax line for 2026, with Hicks counting as $10M, so out of the $76M, we can allocate: $21M Buehler $19M Devers $19M Giolito $12M Chapman That comes pretty close to $76M. If we bring back Chapman or Gio, count that as saved money spent. (I'm assuming we extend Bregman to near his AAV, now.) To me, we should try to target the spending on 2 major additions: SP#2 ($23-28M AAV) Closer ($13-18M AAV) Minor additions: C#2 ($3-5M AAV) 1Bman (assuming we don't move and OF'er, Campbell or Yoshida to 1B) at $5-8M AAV RP ($3-5M AAV- like Wilson) That's close to $70M. Do that, and I'll consider the Devers savings were spent.

I think Bregman and Gio could get nice returns. Wilson, Refsnyder and Buehler not so much. If we trade Chapman, we might as well trade all FAs-to-be plus maybe Duran and players like DHam, Grissom and Eatone, even if the latter are for meager returns.

It would be great, if Buehler got his act together to give us 2-3 nice starts before the deadline. The return of Dobbins, and the nice brief return by Fitts offer rotation hopes, too. Sandoval is the big wild card. Back to Buehler: 8.68 ERA/ 6.41 FIP first 2 starts 2.56/3.91 starts 3 to 8 10.38/8.47 starts 9 to 14 Start 15: 5IP 8 hits, 0BB, 2K and 2ER We need to see the Starts 3 to 8 Buehler, again. Tonight is a good time to show us.

My point was that the going rate for SP'er additions has been $5-10M per starter from 2020 to the Gio, then Buehler signings. Trading Sale added about $10M to the winter SP'er budget, and that's about the difference between $10M/1 and $19M x 2. I think the Sale trade was directly linked to the Gio signing, and many felt the same way, at the time. Many were upset we stopped with Gio, including Bell and me. I'm thinking had we not traded Sale, we's have signed just a $5-10M/1 SP'er, once again.

I'm not sure the trade was made to be "won" with the returns. I think they viewed Devers as a problem and thought freeing up the money would allow them to replenish higher need areas over the next 8+ years. That being said, I think all 4 of the return players show some sort of promise. Harrison probably has the highest hope of giving something very meaningful. Tibbs gives us some minor league depth (maybe 1B could help..) J Bello is promising but too far away to get hopes up. Hicks could be a force from the pen, but questions linger. IMO, if and how we spend the money will be what makes or breaks this trade, and of course how Devers ages. We all saw how we failed to replenish the Betts money, as well as half Prices's, Porcello's and others afterwards. If we follow that same path, it's hard to imagine this trade working well for us, unless Devers implodes.

They both have trade value, but keeping them probably makes more sense. Early, Paez, Wehunt and the like could be substituted. They won't be deal makers, but on close balanced trades, they might entice a yes.

Some Sox OAAs: 1B: -2 Toro (Romy -1/ Casas -3) 2B: +1 DHam (-1 Romy/ -8 Campbell) SS: -2 Story (hard to believe) 3B: +2 Mayer, +1 Bregman- also unbelievable (-1 Toro/-2 Eaton) LF: -6 Duran, -2 Refsnyder (tainted numbers) CF: +14 Rafaela (0 Campbell & Duran) RF: +5 Abreu (aided by bigger RF area) +3 Anthony (way less time than Abreu) and 0 Refsnyder (should be a minus) DRS: (1200+ players with 20+ innings) +14 Rafaela (3rd out of all players at all positions) +12 Narvaez (8th) +8 Abreu (20th) +7 DHam (30th) +5 Bregman & Anthony (48) +4 Duran (74) +2 Refsnyder & Wong +1 Story, DHam (SS), Mayer (3B) 0 Toro (3B) Romy & Sogard(1B) -1 Campbell (CF) -2 Romy (2B) -3 Eaton (3B) -5 Toro & Casas (1B) -15 Campbell (2B)

He should have climbed the ladder to nab that one hit.

I know my tendency is to just make the list longer or choice orientated, and teams prefer quality over quantity, but guys like Monegro and Mullins are not really chump change. Perales and Early would be coveted by every MLB team, but Perales needing to be on the 40 creates issues for many teams.

I think Houck has proven he has the "talent." Or "had" the talent, if something physically has happened to change that forever. He had very "nasty stuff" for years. If he can regain that form, he might be the 2nd or 3rd best starter or RP'er.

I'd do this and maybe sub Early or Perales for Sandlin or add Mullins or Monegro.

Wow, he musta done pretty well over the next 3.1 IP, then.

The guys we've used at DH, since the trade have done pretty well, so that should be a factor in judging the post trade results. One player, each game, would not have played, had Devers not been traded. Their results matter, too. Refsnyder has not done as well as I expected, when DH'ing. but Anthony & Abreu have a 1.167 OPS as a DH,. Although Anthony was called up days before the trade, he may not have had a place to play, or some other OF'er would have been benched: look at the last 28 days OPS of our OF'ers/DHs: 1.750 Yoshida (4 PAs) .999 Abreu (57) .963 Rafaela (83) .832 Anthony (98) ,786 Duran (96) and .833 since June 15th .754 Refsnyder (42) I still wish Devers was our DH/1Bman, but we've done fine with his replacements. .

I think he gets promoted, soon, despite how good Alcara & Murphy have looked. I'm not one to put much stock in one game, but Houck looked pretty good, last night with WOO. 4.1 IP (76 pitches) and just 3 hits, 2BBs, 6 Ks and 1 ER. If he has one more good game like that, he may get the call, 4-5 days later.

I agree, but I ask, where do we find a trade like Nate and Schwarber, this July? We'll see a few in MLB, in hindsight, but it seems they are hard to spot when made, in recent years. Many felt the Astros grossly overpaid for the rental Kikuchi. I did, too. I think it's harder to make deals like those, now. The Portes trade could have worked out well, as with the Blalock for Urias deal, I did not mention, before, but they did not. I think Breslow will look to make deals like those, this deadline, but I also see him making one big splash deal involving one of our starting OF'ers and a prospects or two near or better than Aldo Ramirez and Jalen Beeks were when traded. Maybe a third team (Philly) is involved. Abreu or Duran Maybe Arias or Romero plus Perales, Early or Sandlin gets added. Other pieces like Cespedes, Bleis, Mullins, Monegro, Tibbs, Paez, Jordan, Uberstine or Wehunt could sweeten the deal, a little. I'm really thinking Joe Ryan could be the prize Brez is seeking, with an extension in mind, if possible. Having Crochet and Ryan locked up for 5 years would be pretty impressive. A supporting cast of Bello, Dobbins, Sandoval, Fitts, Tolle, Harrison plus maybe one or two from Perales and Early looks nice and deep, too.

Good point. I stand corrected. They won't DFA Hicks for Houck. Maybe a phantom IL stint, but more likely a demotion for Alcara, Bernardino or Murphy. Maybe we add a RP'er (Weissert, Murphy, Bernardino, Kelly, Guerrero?) to the package, when we trade Duran or Abreu.

Had Bello pitched like this, last year, we'd have still been upset with how the trade worked out, but the logic behind freeing up some money to do better than the Kluber's and Richard's of the world would have seemed a bit more apparent. BTW, Gio is pitching, right now, while Sale is on the IL. Imagine the different conversation, if 2025 was 2024. (Okay, Grissom would still suck, but...)

Even trading one starting OF'er leaves more than Anthony as reserves for "what ifs..." Let's say we trade Abreu: LF: Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Garcia CF: Rafaela (Duran or Anthony,) Campbell, Garcia RF: Anthony (Rafaela) Refsnyder, Garcia This looks deeper than almost very other team in MLB, right now. I think we gotta trade an OF'er by the deadline, when needs are so high for some contending teams with a gaping hole in the OF. Take advantage of the overpay setting.

Buehler cost more than Chapman.

It's funny how AE was so highly regarded. Injuries may have been his ultimate downfall, but what about these deals: Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber Jalen Beeks for Nate Moises Bolivar for Paxton & Ovis Portes for Lucas Sims... Oh, wait....