moonslav59

True. The guys has put in 4 full seasons- two really good, one pretty good, and 2023 not bad, at all. 2019: 32 GS, 197 IP (110 ERA+) age 23 2021: 33 GS, 206 IP (132 ERA+) age 25 2022: 32 GS, 229 IP (180 ERA+ WOW!) age 26 2023: 28 GS, 185 IP (113 ERA+) age 27 He will turn 30, next September. ERA+ since 2020: 114 in 719 IP Pablo Lopez (turns 29 in March and has 3 years of control) 120 in 780 IP Castillo (Turns 32, tomorrow with 3 years of control) 128 in 219 IP Crochet (turns 26 in June- 2 years of control) 138 in 661 IP Alcantara 142 in 817 IP Burnes (1 year older than Sandy.) 151 in 659 IP Fried (almost 2 yrs older than Sandy) less IP since 2020

We do have some "bargain basement" players, but I did not include them in the 16, except maybe a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B, which I think would be decent, if we strengthened the rest of the team. Wong Teel Casas DHam Grissom Campbell Story Mayer Devers Meidroth Duran Rafaela Abreu Anthony Yoshida Refsnyder That's 16. Okay, Meidroth is a stretch, as would be Romy. Call it 15, or even 13-14. Either way, we have everyday players/prospects to spare and a great need with our staff and minor league pitching values. We can afford a 3 for 1 trade and still have the everyday depth we need. I think we all agree, we are unbalanced. Some may think we suck with pitching and are mediocre with everyday players, but even that is unbalanced.

I only trade for Arenado, if it means moving Devers to 1B ot DH/1B. Otherwise, they can keep him. Now, if they take Yoshida, I might be okay with trading for him to play 1B, until we move devers there, and then trading Casas for a good pitcher.

Show me where you ever said a Sox player's value went up, or where you liked a Sox player more than BTV valued them at. I'm only addressing your views on Sox players as almost always less than the more or less objective BTV site. You seem to only use fWAR and WAR projections, when it makes a Sox player look worse than we appear to think they are, but never when it comes out making them look valuable. That is my point. I think you do okay valuing your own players objectively, and you recognize hos park factors make your pitchers look better, in some stats, than they really are, and how batters might look worse. I totally understand how you are often just trying to show Sox fans how they are thinking their players are better than they might really be.

It's a big gamble on Alcantara, but I think I'd do this. Swapping the LHB for the RHB makes sense, too.

Of course, there is homerism taking place. We know that, but why do Sox players values stay stagnant in your eyes, while every big signing raises Mariner player values? BTW, on almost every trade I ever suggested on BTV, I tried to counter my bias by making the return value higher than what we got back- never even. When people gave thumbs up, more often than not there were more thumbs up for the other team. Most disliked the Sox returns. (I do think I try not to be biased.)

Did the signing of Soto raise the value of Duran, Abreu and Anthony? LOL

We set our price and won't overpay. Do these guys really think our low offers have a chance? If they do, they are dumber than dumb. If they don't, they are con men that are not getting away with it, anymore.

I don't disagree, but we don't have to give top everyday prospects for 1-2 years of a pitcher or 3+ years of an aging starter. We could give several everyday prospects for a young SP'er, even if it is an "overpay." We need to balance our strengths and weakness, somehow, someway and SOMETIME- like how about now? We've heard Mayer's name. Casas and Abreu. Farther away guys like Cespedes, Bleis, Arias or JH Garcia. Others like Meidroth, Arias and Romero could be additions. In short, we can make a trade that helps fill a need for 2025 AND beyond, at the same time. SEA traded for Castillo and extended him. MN traded for Pablo Lopez and extended him. Word is Cease is on the market. Crochet is out there. Just do it! We can't play 16 vets and ML-ready prospects, at the same time.

He was not in my top 5 hopefuls. I'd prefer him to Bregman, but Bregman was not in my top 10 to start the winter.

I'm not sure trade value jumps up and down, all that much, based on the most recent signing or two. I do think pitcher value has risen, this winter, so it does matter, but I doubt the fact that Nate just signed for 3 years, not two, changes anyone's views on the value of Castillo.

Yup. HRam & Anibal Sanchez did well for the Marlins, but getting Beckett & Lowell worked for us, too. (MIA later traded HRam for Eovaldi, who was later traded for Phelps, who was part od a deal for Pablo Lopez, who was...)

Whos is most likely to be taken from our farm has been the bigger question than who we might grab. The Whitlock steal was memorable. Possible losses: Monegro or Sikes? Less likely... Bastardo, Gambrell, Liu Castro, Hickey, Jordan Did I miss anyone?

They have had "moments" of moderate spending since the Bloom hire, and gave that massive Devers extension, recently, but we are being passed by more and more teams with more "willing" ownership groups. I don't think the "lied" when they said they felt we could remain competitive as they scaled back spending. We did have some payrolls that were top 5 to 10 for most of the last 6 seasons, but we did not spend very wisely, as we kept losing key player after key player, with the Betts loss as the major kick in the balls, way back in 2020. Yes, they have been lying to us, and more than just the "full throttle" obvious lie. I feel like all these reports of being interested in the top FAs is all lies, too. If it's not a lie, it's almost worse, since it shows they have no clue about what the market is.

I agree. I like Pablo Lopez better, but I think we need to make efforts for one or the other. Crochet may cost us too much, and just for 2 years of service. I'm looking for a longer window than that, although aging starters may not fill that need.

Nobody is untouchable. I've always felt that way. Why would anyone be against trading our best player or prospect for better value? That being said, I'd try to trade others, before these guys (in order from best to just real good) 1. Anthony (Big Gap) 2. Campbell (Moderate Gap) 3. Duran & Houck As much as we need SS depth, I'd trade Mayer and hope Romero or Arias can rise quickly enough to replace Story.

Okay, I'm a little less upset than I was yesterday, but I still feel like we will come far short of the minimum I felt we needed to add to make us a playoff favorite. (Asking for more than just that seems like a joke.) We lost Pivetta, who was our most steady SP'er since 2020. We lost Jansen and Martin, the two best RP'ers we've had since 2018, from an already piss-poor pen. (Worst in MLB over the second half of '24.) I realize it is just mid December, but we have essentially added Giolito, Chapman and Wilson, and helpful FA options are dwindling. I've always been fine with a big trade, but only if it was part of a larger group of quality player plan. To me, we are down to less than a handful of big impact FAs, so we basically have to get one plus a big trade or two big trades, which would hurt the bright future we seem to have. I'm sick of hearing how close we have come before being out bid. Countless stories of "being seriously interested" is so and so. New ways of saying "full throttle." I guess Burnes would be nice, but why think we will overpay for him, when we would not for others? A Bregman signing would greatly improve our corner IF defense, but why choose him to overpay? Maybe they shut me up by adding Burnes, Crochet, a decent defensive catcher (not McCann as mentioned in MLBTR, today) and possibly a power RHB, but I'm seeing those hopes fade away. Right from the start, I've said my expectations are zero, but I did let my hopes get up, and I think I blurred my hopes into expectations, a bit too much. Now, I'm back to earth and expecting nothing more than make Pivetta, Kittredge and Elias Diaz with some big hopes that our prospects turn out to be Fred Lynn and Jim Rice.

Yes, true, but to you, no Sox player's trade value ever goes up, accordingly.

Word is... Arenado would okay a deal to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox. I know the plan for STL is to cut ties and save some money as they rebuild, while trying to stay somewhat entertaining, so including Yoshida in the deal greatly reduces the "savings they are looking for, but I think we have to try and make it work. Either pay as much of Yoshida's deal as necessary or add another decent, but not top 5-6 prospect to the package. I have not heard Sonny Gray's name mentioned as trade fodder, but he is a year older and still owed $65M/2. Maybe including him make it happen. Plan A: Yoshida + $5M a year and 2 from Cespedes, Bleis, Jh Garcia, Meidroth, Fitts or Sandlin for Arenado. (Maybe 2 from Cespedes, Beis and Garcia plus one from the other three. Plan B: Ask for Arenado & Gray for Yoshida (no money) and Mayer plus one of two from the 6 mentioned above.

I missed the Nate $75M/3 deal with Texas. Every recently-signed pitcher is getting an added year over projections and the same or more money. Unless we decide to overpay, we will keep coming up short. This isn't rocket science. Going into these negotiations, thinking we don't have to overpay is either ignorance or playing a shell game, which I call it what it is- a big sham. I'm at the point, where even if we get Burnes, I'll still be pissed.

Exactly. I'd rather have a steady Pivetta than another Kluber.

Conversely, if he can stay healthy, maybe he can have the time to find a groove and stay in it for long enough to show real value.

Not really. They keep feigning serious interest in signing just about every notable FA. They put out the news and "leaks." To this fan, it is backfiring. It only makes it worse. I knew all along to not believe their words, and only actions would convince me things have changed, and the words and words keep coming. The actions? Chapman Wilson Talk of trades, too. Talk, talk, talk. Maybe we end up doing something significant, but seriously, does anyone, now, expect we do more than we did before ... 2023? Yoshida, Duvall, Jansen & Martin? 2022? Story, Wacha, Hill & Strahm? Hell, we lost more value than we may sign, this winter. Yes, there is a long way to go, and there are still several useful FAs left to outbid other GMs to get. I'll say it again, I'll believe it when I see it.

I wouldn't give him $14M/1 or $20M/2. Haven't we seen enough Klubers, Richards, Paxtons and Hills for a decade?

I'd rather we just come out and say we will not pay big for anyone.