moonslav59

I'm surprised Dubon still has one arb year left. That trade seems so long ago,

Yes, and that was the largest FA signing in 8 winters. It was just short of the total money given to Sale over 5 years, as an extension. If you look at this 7 year period (JD signed for $110M/5 in '18) and end up saying the two largest FA deals went to Story and Bregman, I think it would be a head-scratcher. One part being, "Is that the highest we paid?" and the other being, "Why those two?" The next tier is significantly lower: $90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee) $68M/4 Nate (more like an extension, to me) Then another big drop to the next tier: $39/2 Giolito, $36M/2 Jansen Here are some hindsight deals signed since 2019: $118/5 Wheeler '20 $175/7 Semien '22 (pretty close AAV to Story) $88M/5 Willson Contreras $79M/4 Schwarber '22 (less than Yoshida) $72M/4 T Scott '25 $64M/3 Kikuchi '25 $54M/3 Chapman (much cheaper than Bregman will be.) $53M/4 Imanaga $45M/3 Seth Lugo $38M/3 Holmes, $22M/2 Minter, $12M/2 d'Arnaud or C Kelly

Great article. I loved it. I sure hope he improves his defense. He looked like he got worse on D, not better, in 2024. I think Narvaez may play more than some think, due to his plus D and a little power. I see Sabol as Gasper-like.

Buehler's best year was the best of them all. Best fWAR seasons since 2017 in MLB by rank: 28. Buehler 5.6 in '21 44. Giolito 5.2 in '19 48. Buehler 5.1 in '19 64. Crochet 4.7 in '24 95. Giolito 4.1 in '21 125. Houck 3.9 in '24 145. Sandoval 3.7 in '22 222. Buehler 3.1 in '18 We have 5 SP'ers who have had a 3.1 or better fWAR season. Buehler 3 times and Gio twice. (Gio might have been 3 times, if you project 2020 to a full season.) Other good seasons 2.0 Giolito '20 (short season) 2.4 Crawford '23 2.3 Sandoval '23, Houck in '21 2.0 Bello '24, We have 7 SP'ers who have had a 2.0 or better fWAR season since 2021, or the last 4 seasons. None are post prime. None are dealing with a current injury, except Sandoval. I went back 8 years, since none of our guys are past prime enough to think it impossible to repeat a season completed at a younger age. (Past injury might have made it near impossible to do so.)

Exactly, there are so many factors to be considered. My guess is they will put Soto 28-35 and other IFA after 35th.

My point is, they should have targeted someone better than him over the last 9 winters, and then did what it took to get him. Signing Bregman reeks of just "settling" on the best of the leftovers just because he'd help the team, and not out of some deep-rooted analysis and vetting. I felt the same way about Story. He was a knee-jerk reaction signing, meant to appease the fans, and they felt his price had dropped to a manageable amount, which was less than what they knew ZBogey would get. The Yoshida signing was not on the level of Story and Bregman, and far from the Price level, but I do think they really spent time evaluating him, singling him out as the guy they wanted (rightly or wrongly) and then they went and got "their man." I don't see Bregman as "their man." Sure, he checks off two boxes, assuming they play him at 3B, and he'd help the team with a new RHB added to the line-up, but he is not the guy they wanted, all along. Not even close.

When you include the tax, the amount they end up paying is so absurdly higher than the next bidder.

Bregman should not be the largest FA signing since Price, in 2016.

Yes, I meant to write "additions," and I missed some, of course. Sandoval was a real good pitcher and is not old. I had to look it up to confirm he will still be just 28, through the season. I've mentioned I'm sick and tired of these deals, and I'd rather we spent on Scott than Sandoval, but Patrick did have a 122 ERA+ from 2021-2023 with an FIP of 3,72, not bad for a guy with a 4.0 BB/9. As a reference, here are some other ERA+/FIP over their last 3 years: 125/2.90 Crochet 121/3.79 Buehler 117/3.66 Houck 109/3.71 Whitlock 99/4.14 Bello 97/4.31 Crawford 96/4.39 Giolito

Ocean view, in Arizona.

Maybe 25th to 30th would have been better for Soto, but those guys are all close, anyway. Maybe, I fell for the talk on the podcast, and they did say they liked him more than Justin Gonzalez, last winter.

Look for Arias to join the list, at some point, with Cespedes, Perales and Bleis having a shot at it.

If MLB and the union were smart... LOL... they'd agree to a big raise for min wage (like $1.5M '27> $1.75M '28> $2.0M '29> $2.25M '30> $2.5M '31) Expand ML roster to 27 and 40 man roster to 42. Go to 43 in man roster in '29 and 44 man in '31. Shorten the years before arb by 1, but add an arb year. Establish a minimum team salary budget: $85M '27, $95M '28, $105M in '29, $110M in '30 & $120M in '31 These would be huge giveaways to the majority of MLB players and future players. Now, the givebacks by the players. Move towards a hard cap, but include some sort of grandfather clause for players already under contract. Keep the CBT for 2 more years, but with deferrals counted and a tax rate at 50% year 1, 100% year 2 , 150% year 3 and continue up... 2027 CBT line $250M 2028: $265M 2029: $280M 2030: Hard Cap begins at $290M, then $3000M in 2031 (These seem like high numbers, but with min wage and roster sizes increasing it is needed.) Just a rough outline of what direction I think MLB needs to go. MLB has to give something to the players for accepting a hard cap, and I think the lower and mid-range players would jump at the changes that would greatly up their pay while restricting the mega deals.

With 100% tax on $250M or so, right?

My updated rankings: 1. Anthony 2. Campbell 3. Mayer 4. Arias 5. Perales 6. Cespedes 7. Jh Garcia 8. Bleis 9. Romero 10. Fitts 11. Dobbins 12. Tolle 13. Jo Garcia 14. Early 15. Sandlin 16. Cason 17. Valera 18. Reyes 19. Monegro 20. Guerrero 21. D Soto 22. S Delzine 23. Wehunt 24. Paez 25. Penrod 26. Mullins 27. Narvaez 28. H Rivas 29. Taylor 30. Riemer 31. Neely 32. Clarke 33. G Jackson 34. Ingrassia 35. Castro 36. E Alfonso 37. H Ramos 38. Tygart 39. Ehrhard 40. Jordan

I've never mentioned Santander as an option, but he is reportedly willing to go short term, if he does not get near his asking price. The guy is a switch hitter with 44 HRs in '24. He K's, a lot and has a low OBP (.308,) but he'd be the fix we need for a RHB. He's not great on D, so he'd likely play LF, Duran/Rafaela CF and Abreu/Rafaela RF, or we call up Anthony and trade Abreu to fix another hole.

You think, if we sign Grichuk, we trade Abreu for a C, RP or prospect?

Marshall's has a special: Buy a yates and get a Grichuk for free.

I fully believe we extend him, but probably just for 1 year more, or opt out after 3rd year with us.

Yates & Grichuk is probably the best we can hope for.

RP'ers have been the exception: Hendriks 2, Jansen 2, Martin 2, Diekman 2, Barnes 2 extension Yates & Robertson might take 1. Finnegan might take 2. Estevez should get 3-4.

I'm not high on Robertson and notin is not high on Yates, but either would help. Estevez might be the best we can do, at this point. Finnegan has decent closer experience. Jansen, Martin, Sewald and Kahnle are likely upgrades over Wilson, Weissert, Kelly and Penrod, but by how much, and why would we cut Wilson to make room for one of these guys. (More likely we'd replace Guerrero with one, and are these guys big upgrades?) I had hopes for a lockdown closer addition, even if by trade, and maybe that still can happen, but I am not holding my breath on any meaningful pen addition.

An optimist might look at the numbers from recent years and think it isentirely possible a good amount of the recent seasons by fWAR could be repeated in 2025: 6.7 Duran '24 5.0 Devers '22 (was on pace for this in '24 before injury) 3.1 Abreu '24 3.0 Story BOS career per 160 gms 2.5 DHam projected to 150 games '24 2.2 Casas '23 projected to 650 PAs 1.5 Refsnyder projected to full '24 season 1.1 Wong '24 1.0 Rafaela '24 + 0.1, Yoshida full '24 season, Grissom ''22 plus about 50 more PAs. Pitching 5.6 Buehler '21 4.7 Crochet '24 3.9 Houck '24 2.4 Crawford '23 1.8 Sandoval 1/2 of '22 season 1.6 Bello '23 Pen 2.7 Hendriks '21 2.7 Whitlock '21 1.8 Chapman '23 1.5 Slaten '24 1.1 Criswell '24 1.0 Wildon "20 x 2 0.8 Wink '23 No way will all of these happen or even come close to happening, but how many have to come close to see a nice season from the Sox in 2025? I don't see Hendriks or Chapman coming close to the numbers I posted, here, but everyone else seems doable. (DHam might be a stretch, and Story coming close to 150 games, too.) Could we see: 6.5 Duran, 4.5 Devers, 3.0 Casas & Abreu, 2.5 Story and a Yoshida-Ref platoon, 1.5 Wong, DHam and maybe a couple prospects. 5.0 Crochet, 4.5 Buehler & Houck, 2.5 Bello and maybe 2.5 from Gio+Crawford 2.5 Whitlock, 2.0 Hendriks, 1.8 Chapman, 1.7 Slaten, 1.0 Criswell, 0.9 Wink, and maybe 0.5 from Wilson, Guerrero and one other guy

I dont see paranoia or conspiracy mania going on, nor even sour grapes.

Duran still remains kind of a "wild card." He "remade" himself, so often early in his career, that it was hard to know just who he was or was going to be. He changed his stance, approach, we even saw his defense go from crappy to near GG, almost overnight. He might have had a 4.3 fWAR in 2023, had he not got hurt. His 6.7 fWAR is 2024 blew everybody's projections away. Now, most of the major projection sites have him between 3.2 and 3.6, which is totally possible, but awfully pessimistic. Repeating a 6.7 seems entirely possible, and improving on it should not be ruled out for the peak-prime 28 year old. He quickly went from "we should trade this guy" to our best player in such a short time, it's understandable he be called a "wildcard."