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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    No where have I said he has played well since the AS break. I know he did poorly. I think it was due to injury. I'm not sure this year's slow start is due to injury. I don't think he's pouting or brooding, as some have suggested. I do not think 22 games is a large enough sample size to project doom & gloom, and I'm not sure it should be linked to the second half of last year as some sort of proof he is no longer a good batter. He was on pace for his career high OPS in mid July, and suddenly I'm supposed to think he is no longer good and should be demoted in the line-up or traded as some want. It's not belligerence to point out someone is cherry-picking a timeline that fits his narrative. I am concerned about Devers. 80 games is significant, but no more or less than looking at a few sample sizes, like 21 and 300? He called a position of mine "nonsense," and it wasn't even something I said, and I'm belligerent?
  2. moonslav59
    But exactly 80 games just happens to be the most important. Yes, it's pretty simple why you chose that number. 21 shows more recency than 80. So does 50. 60. 70... 300 games is a larger sample size than 80. So does 100, 150, 200... We all know why you selected 80 games. Doi you use 80 games for all your projections, and where do studies show that precisely 80 games is what is the best predictor of what is to come? Selecting 80 games is subjective not objective. Simple.
  3. moonslav59
    Okay, buy why is last 80 games, more important than the last 100, 150, 300? Because that is the exact time, he start struggling, and it fits your narrative. Why not pick last 21 games? .810 OPS. Why is 80 more important than 21 or 300? I know why, to you.
  4. moonslav59
    Heart attack AB by Raleigh
  5. moonslav59
    Okay, let's assume the sample dates you hand selected are the most important and most predictive of all others, .727 is still 4th best on the team. (I don't assume that and I don't think Devers will hit .727 from today to the end of the season. For some reason you seem to think players are locked into groundhog day.)
  6. moonslav59
    Good point, but we have seen some young top prospects make quick jumps to the bigs and not do too badly, once there. I don't think Jackson Merrill played any AAA games and not that many in AA. A couple others played maybe 30-60 games in AAA and 50-80 in AA. I'm not saying mayer will step in and be an AS game one, but being ML Ready does not mean that. Would you start Rafaela at SS over mayer, if Story went down for 60 days?
  7. moonslav59
    That's got to be it for Crochet. Yes, he's human. Nees a strong pen game, here, and some bats coming alive.
  8. moonslav59
    Duran.
  9. moonslav59
    He leads the team in hard hit% since the AS break, and by a healthy margin.
  10. moonslav59
    2021-2024 OPS Leaders by Season (500+ PAs) .890 Devers 21 .879 Devers 22 .871 Devers 24 (so vrey long ago!) .867 JD 21 .863 Bogey 21 .856 Casas 23 .851 Devers 23 4 of the top 7 and some want to trade the bum.
  11. moonslav59
    Let's wait and see him lead the team in batting, again this year.
  12. moonslav59
    A while ago, some were wondering about keeping Duran leading off, due to his slow start. In the past 2 weeks (12 games) he has a .351 OBP- not great but one of the best on the team. Knee jerk decisions don't work all that often.
  13. moonslav59
    I think last years end to the season was injury-related. Maybe, this year's are, too. I don't know. I'm not at the point you are, but certainly if this continues, I'd think about it. You also have to look at the luck factor and hard hit %. 2025 Sox with 50+ PA Hard Hit %: 47% Devers (n all fairness, he is just 5th in LD% at 19.4%) 38% Abreu 36% Story 35% Bregman 32% Duran 31% Rafaela & Narvaez 28% Campbell 23% Casas I'd give him a few more weeks (not days and not tomorrow.) AUG 1 to today: 39% Devers 36% Abreu 33% Duran
  14. moonslav59
    YES! Again, I do not think what a player has done in their previous 20-25 games is what he will do in his next 20-25 ot 140 games. I think the data shows this to be true. I'm all for playing the hot hands and moving people up and down based on streaks, but Devers has a long history of being a little streaky and ending up with fantastic numbers when the year is over. It's not absurd to think devers will snap out of it.
  15. moonslav59
    I'm not sure Criswell is for real, as a SP'er, but most pitchers with a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP after their first 20 starts would be given a further look in that role. .737 OPS Against (.884 in releif) 86 tOPS+ (122 as RP) 2.84 K/BB (1.74 as RP)
  16. moonslav59
    3 of the last 13 WS winners were the worst or tied for worst team in the playoffs. 1 of the last 13 WS winners was the 3 seed in the league. 9 out of 13 WS winners were the 1 or 2 seed in their league. That looks far from a true crapshoot, to me.
  17. moonslav59
    You know I do not count 14 game sample sizes as predictive. I think he was "ready" last year, when he was called up to AAA, but he got hurt, but that's just me. Right now, I'd rather have him at SS than Rafaela or some sort of timeshare between DHam & Romy. You wouldn't?
  18. moonslav59
    It's only been 3 seasons without the one game play-in. In 2 of those 3 years, the "best team" in one of the tow leagues won. (LAD in '24 and HOU in '22) Texas looked like a crapshoot win, as only 1 other playoff teams had as many or less wins. From 2012 to 2021, when they had the one game play-in and then the same 7 total series in the format, we saw a "best team" win in 5 of the 10 seasons. That is far from a complete crapshoot. in 2 other years, the second best team from a league won (SFG in '12 and HOU in '17 had one less win than CLE) That's 7 in 10 years the 1 or 2 team won out of 5 teams from each league in the "shoot." Only twice did the worst playoff team win the WS, which is in line with "crapshoot odds," since a total crapshoot would predict 1 in 5 or 2 in 10 wins. The 3rd and 4th best teams have had way less than their "fairshare" of WS wins. (The Nats in 2019 being the only one.)
  19. moonslav59
    No, and that is why mayer will stay in AAA. IMO, Mayer is ML ready now, but he is blocked by Story & Campbell.
  20. moonslav59
    There goes the no-no!
  21. moonslav59
    Never. I wouldn't mind seeing him 4th, but not as a demotion, but for more RBIs. (I also see RHBs Campbell or Bregman as a good fits for the 2 slot.)
  22. moonslav59
    It's not a black and white issue. There are degrees on how much of a crapshoot you think it is. There is a ton of data, but how you interpret it is subjective. Do you only look at data from when the playoffs were extended? (The first, second or third time?)
  23. moonslav59
    So many players, especially top prospects have jumped over AAA or played very few games there, and gone on to do well in the bigs. Mayer's gaps in his playing time that ae concerning. Does anyone think that would not be called up, if Story went on the 60 Day IL? I guess we could call up Anthony and play Rafaela at SS, again, but I think Mayer is ready but blocked, right now.
  24. moonslav59
    I realize my position has taken a beating in recent years. I respect those opinions who tink it is more of a crapshoot than I do. In baseball, the best teams do not win as predictably as other sports, and that is the reasothey play 162 games. Well, that and money. Of course we'd have a chance to win the ring, if we make the playoffs, but I don't call a 1-5% chance as "on the verge." I wouldn't coua 6-20% "on the verge," either, maybe even 21-33%.
  25. moonslav59
    I wish I could say it that succinctly.
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