moonslav59

Yes, I wanted Gray, because I thought the shorter term was something JH might go for. I also liked Monty, early and more so later. I was high on Imanaga and Seth Lugo from the start- perhaps more so than anyone else. I liked Wacha, too. Monty became the main choice, as he was the last man standing, and that ended up being a disaster. Quite a few of the mid-range guys turned out okay to good. I remember Stroham vs Gio debates occurred, and although Stroman did not do all that well, he might have got us into the playoffs over the Gio choice. Our pen would have been spared a bunch of innings and "pen games." These are all the deals between $14M and $25M AAV. $80M/4 ERod- bad, so far $75M/3 Gray- very good signing $62M/3 Snell (opt out) Good signing $53M/4 Imanaga- a steal, so far $45M/3 Lugo- a steal $39M/2 Giolito- the worst of the mid-rangers $37M/2 Stroman- not good, but not bad $32M/2 Wacha- nice signing $28M/2 Manaea- nice (opted out) $25M/1 w vesting 2nd year Montgomery- as bad as Gio $16M/1 Montas- ok $14M/1 Flaherty- very nice 12 deals: 3 Bad, 2 okay or decent, 3-4 nice and 4-5 very nice I think that was a rare winter.

How many teams would take Yoshida at $2M a year, which is just a little over $1M above min wage? How many for $3-4M? Are there any at $5-6M? I doubt there are any at $7M+. Maybe, if he plays for a few weeks or months and has an .800+ OPS, we can find someone willing to pay $7-9M a year for his services. Best case scenario, we trade him in May or June and pay about half of his remaining contract ($9M a year.) Worst case: we end up just DFA'ing him, at some point, this year. I doubt we feel enough pressure, right now, to just get what we can in a winter trade. It would help to open a roster slot for a top 3 prospect, but I do not think Brez feels rushed to do this. Maybe a trade for a higher or near the same salary dump player is our best chance to unload him, but I have yet to find a match that makes sense for the other team. Why does STL (Arenado) want Yoshida? Why does AZ (Monty) want Yoshida? Why does SEA (Castillo- not really a "dump") want Yoshida? SD (Darvish or Musgrove?) No. HOU (McCullers?) They don't need a DH. LAA (Trout or Rendon) Maybe, but why do we want to pay more? TEX (deGrom?) Doubtful SFG (Ray?) Who knows?

Vladdy would be that big RHP we need, and his age would mean he gets a huge contract. I'd love him in our line-up, and he's younger than Soto, but at what cost: players, prospects plus paying FA money seems unreasonable. Just wait until he's a FA. (I know, then watch Cohen outbid everyone.)

Maybe JH is hoping we can swoop in on the leftovers and find some bargains. We all thought Monty was "that guy," last year, but that did not go as expected.

"Never has?" How far back are you going? Chapman? Yoshida? Story? JD? Price? "Never will be? You sound like Randy and others. You could be right, and my expectations are still at zero, but my hopes have not been extinguished, yet. Maybe all these "close bids" are just a continuation of the "sham," but maybe not. I'm still thinking, I'll believe it when I see it. (I think our best chance is for Teoscar or Santander and maybe Pivetta or Manaea. I doubt we get Scott, Hoffman or Estevez, let alone Burnes or Bregman.)

LOL. I knew we'd get someone for him. I have no idea on the hopes of the pitcher we got, but I like the idea of continued rebalancing of our system towards pitching. 3 everyday players and Wikelman for Crochet Yorke for Priester Dugo for Fitts, Weissert and Judice Trade of Rule 5 Slaten The Luis Garcia rental trade did not work out, but the effort was made to rebalance.

It's hard to know, if at some point, JH becomes that GM that simply will not be "outbid" by anyone else. Will he ever draw the line at one guy? After missing out on so many players, where we seemed to have serious interest and made serious offers, at some point, he might just have to bite the bullet and pay more than he wants to- maybe significantly more. I hope he doesn't just settle on one of the last guys standing, and that he has genuine interest in a really good player and draws the line in the sand on a chosen player. To me, it needs to be Burnes, Bregman or Teoscar with Santander, Flaherty, Hoffman or Scott being okay "second choices." Perhaps 2 from the second tier would be "enough," but I hope we do better (like one from the first 3 and 1 from the second 4.) A winter of Burnes, Crochet, Scott and Chapman is pretty damn good, and so would be Bregman/Teoscar, Crochet, Flaherty/Scott/Hoffman and Chapman. I'd say this would be okay: Crochet, Santander, Hoffman & Chapman (maybe upgrade at catcher via trade.) Any worse that this would be a disappointment, to me.

MLBTR makes estimates that are pretty close to being true. This year, they have underestimated, a lot, but many by just a little ($1M AAV or so.) They have been pretty close on years, too, but have been off by 1 less year, several times. These are their projections for remaining FA pitchers. (My guess in parenthesis) SP: $200M/7 Burnes ($248/8) $115/5 Flaherty ($115/4) $24M/2 Heany ($30M/3) $21M/1 Pivetta ($72M/4) $20M/2 Quintana ($22M/2) $16M/1 Scherzer ($17M/1) $15M/1 Buehler ($16M/1) $13M/1 Gibson ($14M/1) $12M/1 Verlander & Sugano ($13M/1) $12M/2 Ogasawra ($20M/3) Not estimated: (Cobb got $15M/1) Morton ($12M/1) Lynn ($10M/1) RP: $56M/4 Scott ($75M/5) $44M/4 Hoffman ($60M/5) $27M/3 Estevez ($40M/4) $16M/2 Minter ($21M/3) $14M/1 Yates ($22M/2) $14M/2 Soroka & Kittredge ($15M/2) $13M/2 Kahnle ($14M/2) $11M/1 Robertson ($12M/1) Not estimated: (Chapman got $11M/1) Junis (18M/2) Jansen ($10M/1) Martin & Sewald ($9M/1)

Projecting the 13 man pitching staff is not easy. We almost certainly will be adding an arm or two, before opening day- hopefully a #1-2 SP'er and a closer, but that could prove to be too expensive for JH to go along with. Here is my stab at the opening day 13: SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Criswell (long relief/spot starter) RP: Henriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson (the token lefty) I actually like our AAA pitching depth, but it would be greatly improved if Criswell and Guerrero were bumped off the 26. SP: (Criswell) Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, (not on 40: Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan, Sandlin, I Coffey) RP: (Guerrero) Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, Shugart, (not on 40: I Campbell, Mata, Mills, Hoppe, Troye) I'd love to see us add Burnes and Hoffman or Estevez, but those seem like long odds.

Enmanuel Valdez traded to PIT for RHP Joe Vogatsky. He was drafted 19th by PIT in the amateur draft out of James Madison U. He did not play any proball, this past summer. He's projected as a pen arm.

I've been listing out what players I'd like to see at all slots on the 26, but I do not think these are the guys that will be on the 26 opening day. They may not even end up playing most of the games where I slotted them, by season's end. A while ago, I suggested the odds that two prospects from Campbell, Anthony and Mayer make the opening day roster are very slim, even if we have an injury or two. I still think that. I'm guessing the odds just one makes it is less than 50-50, unless we have a key injury or two (at SS, 2B or OF.) The fact that none of the 3 need to be on the 40 is a major factor, but I also think it goes beyond that. Teams like to keep as many options on the table, as possible, on opening day, even if it means keeping some more promising players or prospects off the 26 and 40, if they have options or are not needed on the 40. The other reason is this: not only do we want to keep many options available, the options we have seem to have some promise and in some ways have earned a right to prove they belong on the 26 and 40. I will go player by player (assuming no trades or additions): Devers, Duran, Casas, Story, Wong and Abreu are all locked into starting roles. Abreu will sit vs LHPs and Ref will play vs LHPs. That's 7 out of the 13 slots. I have Narvaez as the back-up catcher, but it could be Gasper. That's 8. Now the next 5 before we get to Anthony, Campbell & Mayer. Rafaela almost certainly will be on the 26, even if as the supersub 4th OF'er and middle IF utility. (He's fine at 2B, but should only be used at SS in an emergency, IMO.) He's #9 in my book. DHam has earned another look. He was fine on defense, at 2B, something we have not seen, very much for years. He hits RHPs well enough (.729,) while offering amazing baserunning skills. His value as a PR should not be undersold. We do have too many LHB, but to me he will be on the opening day 26. (Campbell may be better, but we will keep him off the 26 and 40, at least until he gains the added year of contol, IMO.) He's #10 Grissom did not "earn" a slot by his 2024 play on O or D. I had hoped he'd be better on D than he showed in limited action, but he was also no whiz on D in the minors, too. I can see the argument that Campbell should take his slot, but I think we have too much invested in Grissom to not give him a look. Now, if he looks awful in ST'ing, he still has options left, so we could have the next two guys make the 26 over him, but Grissom will surely stay on the 40 into April. Romy showed some promise, and some people think he could break out, at any moment and shock us all. He hit a decent .723 in 216 PAs and showed 20 HR power, if extended to 650 PAs. He is also a much better defender at SS than DHam and Grissom, and he can play 1B and 3B without embarrassing himself. He's kind of the unmentioned guy on the team, but he bats RH'd and hit .879 vs LHPs. One could easily argue he should make the 26 over Grissom, but we could also see DHam, Grissom and Romy on the opening day roster. #13 has been a big talk, this winter: Yoshida. If he's healthy and not traded away, I have to think he gets a chance to show he can hit, even if just to build trade value. I do think having Anthony or Campbell on the 26 would make for a better team and add flexibility for Cora to juggle players around, but I think this will be the opening day 13: C: Wong and Narvaez 1B: Casas (Romy/Wong) 2B: DHam-Grissom platoon (possible Romy batting vs LHPs) SS: Story, Romy 3B: Devers (Romy, Grissom) LF: Duran v R and Ref vs L CF: Rafaela v R and Duran v L RF: Abreu (given a chance to his LHPs) DH: Yoshida (We could platoon DH with Yoshida and Ref and just play Duran-Rafaela-Abreu FT in the OF with Ref as the 4th OF'er.) The line-up would be better with Anthony as the RF'er vs LHPs and CF'er vs RHPs, so there is a strong argument to have him on the opening day roster. Campbell at 2B has a similar claim, but I think we let the above 13 players have a chance to show they deserves a spot on the 26. Sogard, Gasper and Eaton could even get the first call-up over Anthony, Campbell and Mayer, especially if we seek to add extra years of control to our 3 top prospects. Does anyone think the odds are better than 50-50 one makes the 26? (I could see 60-40.) I seriously doubt 2 make it, unless Story is hurt, Yoshida is on the IL or an OF'er gets hurt, too

He was not good, down the stretch in 2024: Last 9 starts (42 IP) 5.95 ERA/.553 FIP/.876 OPSA Last 6 starts (31 IP) 4.35/4.65/.770 Sept (last 5 starts) 4.44/4.90/.787 The best I could find was his last 3 starts: 16 IP 3.31/3.60/.616 which is decent to good. Okay, he might be the next Cris Sale, although he has never had 2 years in a row with over 138 IP. Only once has he had 2 in a row with over 65 IP. I get that this would be a one year deal, so we are not asking for 2 in a row, but we'd be trying to catch lightning in a bottle, and the Sale example showed he caught it once in a 6 year timeframe. Those aren't good odds. If JH decides to spend big, this winter, and Buehrle is signed as depth- pretty expensive at that, I'd be okay. Just as we said the Kluber signing would have been okay had we signed a couple other guys, too. Burnes & Beuhler- fine. Fkaherty or Manea and Buhler- more understandable and possible. Pivetta and Buhler could happen.

It always seems to take longer with Sox injured players, but I could not find one report that said later than opening day. Many said "hopefully by opening day," which hints at chances being present, he won't be ready, but I looked at several links and found none that said expected to out on opening day.

We might as well have paid Soto $800M than do this. Just sign Teoscar and Burnes? They'd be cheaper and we'd lose no prospects. Plus, we already have 4-5 1B or DHs.

They actually thought Yoshida could play LF, and have been stuck on leaving Devers at 3B for 4 years too long. (It's not just Bloom on the second one.)

Well, with Rafaela, Anthony and Abreu, what would you do? LF: Anthony CF: Duran RF: Abreu 4th Rafaela

It's never been about stuff. I don't doubt that, at all.

MLB reported this on a couple weeks after the day of the surgery (OCT 3rd) Though no further details were made available in the team’s press release, a source told MLB.com that the Red Sox are aiming for the left-handed hitter to be ready by Opening Day, which is set for March 27 at Texas. MLBTR wrote: According to Ian Browne of MLB.com, the Red Sox are hoping Yoshida will be back in the lineup and ready to play on Opening Day. NESN: Alex Cora and company are aiming for the designated hitter to be ready for 2025 Opening Day. Did someone report otherwise?

I really like Abreu, a lot. He plays good D in RF, and had 5 years of control. I'd prefer replacing Rafaela with Anthony than Abreu, and this is a damn good OF on O and D: LF: Duran (Ref as back up vs LHPs) CF: Anthony v R/ Rafaela v L (back-up v R) RF: Abreu v R/ Anthony v L We can take care of all our needs via free agency and should not have to trade Abreu or anyone else. We can sign 3 players and still be under the tax line: Bregman, Flaherty, Estevez & E Diaz Burnes, Teoscar, E Diaz (Then we can trade an OF for a RP) Teoscar, Flaherty, Estevez & E Diaz Hell, we could sign Burnes and Bregman or Teoscar and nobody else.

Good post. I'm not sure we'd pay that much for a Murphy. Give them what they want, but then add Yoshida $25M.

I am, but Luzardo is less of one than Buehler.

We are more lefty heavy than other clubs. My point was that he has higher value with other clubs than us- not that he has little value to us. Now, RF D is important in BOS, so in that sense, he is more valuable to us, but I see Anthony as being a plus defender, too. A Duran-Rafaela-Anthony D would be buttah.

One report says "probable for opening day." ESPN says Feb 1st.

Pretty close. I gotta think Wong is spending his winter working on his defense, but then again, he probably has already spent a few on it, with few results.

Why? We are lefty heavy- bigtime. Our OF and OF depth is our strongest area on the 26, 40 and system as a whole. The step from Abreu to Anthony or Campbell could actually be a step up. Now, this assumes Rafaela is the FT CF'er, and I could see wanting Anthony in CF and Abreu in RF vs RHPs over Rafaela in CF, but we can also play Campbell in the OF or use Ref in LF and Duran in CF vs LHPs, and alternate Anthony in CF and RF, accordingly. LF: Duran, Refsnyder CF: Rafaela, Duran, Anthony, Campbell RF: Abreu, Anthony, Campbell, Ref (in short RF parks) We also have JH Garcia and Bleis in the pipeline. To me, our OF is one area we can afford to trade a player away, and it should be a LHB. If we sign Santander or Teoscar, we could trade Abreu and Rafaela and still have this: LF: Teoscar/Santander & Ref CF: Duran (Campbell) RF: Anthony (Campbell)