moonslav59

That very well might happen. A lot may depend on his opening day readiness. We may decide to keep Campbell and or Anthony off the 40 man, until they gain the added year of team control. That might be long enough for Yoshida to earn some value or prove he deserves a DFA. If we stick with Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B, which seems like the odds on favorite, then we can carry a Yoshida-Ref DH platoon for a few weeks.

The estimates are over $15M/1. Yes, JH would love the one year aspect of that offer, but $15M takes away a big chunk of the winter AAV budget.

Good point, and I have mentioned Flaherty as a target. I'm not sure who we can view as the most reliable. The scary thought might be Pivetta.

Why? Someone would take him at $2-6M a year, more like $6M, if he plays for a while and hits near or over .800.

Would you trade Abreu and Valera or just Abreu one for one? Another plus of upgrading Crawford would be adding Crawford to the pen over someone like Fulmer, Bernardino, Penrod or whoever else our 8th RP'er would have been.

I get that, and agree, but the chance he spends more than half the season on the IL is too high for me, and I think higher than other choices, still out there.

All true, and it is also a tribute to our farm system to see that we got the most sought after pitcher of the winter without parting with a top 3 prospects. Of course, 4, 5 and 8 is very costly, but I doubt any other team could have gotten him without trading a top 3 or 2 of their top 3 prospects. BTW, part of the "tank" was letting Bogey walk, and we drafted Campbell with the comp pick we got for losing him. We got Anthony with the comp pick for letting ERod walk. We got Mayer with the 4th pick, overall, after the biggest tank year of all in 2020.

Anybody think Jesus Luzardo is a big enough upgrade over Crawford to risk a trade? He's got 2 arbs left and just turned 27. He's had some injury history, so that worries me, bigtime, but I'm not sure how many of his injuries seem worrisome. He did have a couple nice seasons from 2022-2023. That was not long ago. 279 IP 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) and a 3.40 FIP/ 1.15 WHIP 11Ks to 3BB was not bad. Maybe MIA would take farther away prospects than most team along with Abreu or Crawford, who both have 2+ years more of team control. Abreu, Romero and Valera for Luzardo?

If he just plays plus D and bats .230 (.310 OBP) with 10 HRs in 300 PAs, we'll be fine at catcher. Teel may end up much better, but we needed to trade from our everyday strength to add to our weak area: pitching. The risk was big. Monty might be the ball-buster.

I'm not convinced we spend big, this winter, too. I have repeatedly said I need to see actions and not hear talk. That being said, you seem so sure we will not. We have come up short on many FAs, so far, and that may happen with the rest we bid on, going forward. I get that. We may reach a point, where we feel desperate enough to up our "final offer" to get a prize. Maybe not. On Abreu, I think you are under valuing a Gold Glove OF'er with 5 years of control, who is still pre-arb. On the platoon aspect, I agree, but he is on the big end of a platoon and gets 450 PAs over a season. That is a significant amount of offense brought to table. He's only 25 and may improve vs LHPs, but he has a long way to go to respectability, there. His career OPS vs LHPs is bench-worthy, to date (.516.) His numbers vs RHPs is more than respectable (.842.) His 650 PA line vs LHPs: .277 22 94 with a .347 OBP and .495 SLG. My suggestion was Abreu plus others (maybe Crawford) for a decent SP'er or quality RP or a RHB like himself. Hell, Crawford is a decent SP'er, already. I think Crawford + Abreu gets us a #3 SP or a really good RP'er. You don't. Okay. Maybe Abreu, DHam and Romero get us a very helpful piece.

No, not when they'd take El Rod for him. You might be surprised by Narvaez, but maybe not. soxprospects says they will rank him below Jo Garcia and above Brannon, which isn't saying much- possibly top 30. On the "no hit" aspect of his profile, I fully realize OBP does not always translate from the farm to MLB, but he did have a .371 OBP in AAA (762 PAs) and .364 at all levels. He also has 21 HRs and 33 2Bs in 762 PAs at AAA, so he may have some power. The .247 BA is not all that low for the majors, now. The big worry is the 196 Ks in 762 (27%.) It's 23% for the minors. I'm not projecting greatness on offense, but he may be okay, for a catcher. 2024 MLB Catchers BA .234 OBP .300 SLG .378 OPS .678 The good thing is, we can PH Wong for him, late in games, if needed. I would like to see us add a better catcher, but if we fill the other big needs: SP, Closer, and maybe a RHB, I think we can get by with Narvaez/Wong as our catchers. (I might start Narvaez more than Wong.)

I disagree. We could trade Abreu for a RHB or pitcher with or without adding significant salary. We have budget space and showed a willingness to bid $700M for Soto, so it is not a stretch to think we may trade for salary, like Castillo, Lopez or Arenado. Hell, we may still sign Burnes, Bregman, Teoscar, Santander or Flaherty. Maybe another pen arm, too. I would also not be surprised to see us do nothing more major, in terms of adding salary, but my position is we just don't know.

That type of signing is what I want to avoid, for a while, anyway. In some ways, Crochet is an injury risk, too- maybe more than the average. I know Gio was supposed to be "that guy," but I'd still rather go with someone who has not been hurt more times than not, in the last 2-3 years. You may disagree with my position, but you should at least understand where I'm coming from. Afterall, we were a couple of the very few who saw merit in the Sale trade, and still understand why it was made..

Narvaez is supposed to be really good in all defensive areas and has shown some power and BB ability on O in the minors.

How about a doily for Christmas?

It's too long a shot for me. I was done with Sale, too. I understood the Grissom-Sale trade. It back-fired, spectacularly, but I'm not basing future moves on the one in a hundred that worked out for ATL.

Cohen may not be in on the Burnes bidding, but there may be another GM out there that simply will not be outbid on him. I doubt that guy is Brez-JH, but I'm leaning towards really hoping he is. I know it's a big risk. I know he showed some signs of decline, already. The gap between Burnes and Flaherty/Manaea/Pivetta is too big. If we really want to go bold, as the Soto bidding indicated, we could go Burnes and Bregman and trade Abreu & Crawford for a decent RP'er and Catcher. C: _____, Wong (Narvaez) 1B & DH: Devers & Casas (Yoshida-Refsnyder) 2B: Campbell (DHam-Grissom, Rafaela) SS: Story (Romy, Rafaela, Mayer) 3B: Bregman (Devers, Romy, Campbell, Grissom) LF: Duran, Refsnyder CF: Rafaela (Duran) RF: Anthony (Refsnyder) SP: Burnes, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito (Criswell, Fulmer, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins) RP: ______, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson (Fulmer, Guerrero, Bernardino, Penrod, Shugart, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, Campbell, Mata.) This looks like a contender, to me. I realize the AAV his higher than Soto, but I think we can do this and still be under the tax line or barely over it. If we can save $4-6M by trading Yoshida, we can be under and have a more balanced and flexible 26 man roster.

I think Pablo Lopez might be the most likely trade asset, but I agree with others: we had money to give Soto, so keep our remaining top prospects and sign a couple arms- one from each group: Burnes, Flaherty (Manaea, Pivetta) Scott, Hoffman, Estevez (Yates) Not 2 in parenthesis. To me, this, along with adding a catcher, is the minimum we need to do. A big RHB would be nice, but I put that behind SP, RP and C. Getting Bregman to play 3B ONLY, would be a way to improve the pitching without signing one. He'd improve all our pitchers' outcomes by greatly improving our corner IF defense.

I'm done pinning hopes on guys with so few IP in the last 2-3 years, due to injury.

Crochet is our "stitch in time." "Darn," that was a pretty good one! I "laced" it!

He could end up a decent #2, but his ceiling is probably an okay #3.

On another thread, I compared the last 3 and 5 years of Buehler, Richards and Kluber. Tell me who was better and worse by those numbers. Yes, the age factor is big and in Buehler's favor, but the guy has barely pitched in 3 seasons. Sure, he could pull a Sale, and I would like him as Starter depth, but I do not think paying a $16-17M AAV is the way we need to go on filling a rotation slot for 2025. We need someone with better hopes on durability and IP. That's all I'm saying.

True. I thought he had surgery earlier than he did. He is expected back in July 2025, but we know how that always goes for the Sox.

True on both counts, but... Kluber had a 5 year stretch of over 200 IP and 5 top 10 CYAs, including 2 awards and had pitched 164 innings the year before with decent numbers (3.57 FIP.) Missing so much time from 2918-2022, the 5 years before signing with BOS meant his arm was not maxed out for his career. When he did pitch, he showed that he was aging rather well (111 ERA+ and 3.46 FIP in those previous 5 seasons with just under 500 IP.) That history and even recent history beats out Buehler's. Buehler is much younger than either of thse two, but has had just one 200 IP season (4 years ago- almost as long ao as Kluber's was) and one with 182 IP and 137 IP. His previous 5 seasons (385 IP) had more than 100 IP less than Kluber's 5. His 122 ERA+ is better than Kluber's during those 5, but his FIP of 3.85 is worse.) His last 3 seasons are scary: just 140 IP with a 4.74 FIP and 83 ERA+. Richards was never the horse Kluber was, and like Buehler, only had 1 season with 200 IP. (His next highest were 169, 145 and 137, which compares to Buehler.) He was 33 when he came to BOS in 2021. He was also 5 years removed from that 200 IP season. You are right, he went 5 seasons with no IP total more than 77 in that stretch. His 137 IP was more than could be expected. His numbers were decent, when he did pitch and almost identical to Buehler's numbers: 119 ERA+ and 3.86 FIP but with just under 200 IP in those 5 seasons.) While these three had some differences, most notably age, their previous 5 year sample sizes were pretty close. The previous 3 seasons were like this: ERA+/FIP in IP 93/3.66 in 245 IP Kluber 103/4.29 in 137 IP Richards 83/4.7 4in 138 IP Buehler Buehler was the worst of the three.

Good for these 4. I think this set up is good for younger players that do well. It should be expanded, next contract time.